Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 22.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
50%+27.8
n=4 · A/E 5.89 · £1 +11.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−22.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
22.2%
n=9 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −2.88
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
40%+17.8
n=5 · A/E 2.92 · £1 +10.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 22.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Southwell (AW)18422.2%+0.62
Newcastle (AW)9333.3%+27.50
Wolverhampton (AW)6116.7%+7.00
Kempton (AW)200%−2.00
Chelmsford City (AW)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 615213.3%−4.38
Class 510440%+18.50
Class 25120%+21.00
Class 33133.3%+0.00
Class 4300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite11327.3%0.93−1.88
2nd–3rd fav1218.3%0.49−7.00
4th–6th fav10330%3.32+31.00
7th+ in betting3133.3%5.44+10.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f22313.6%−8.38
Under 6f10440%+37.00
1m – 1m1f4125%+3.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps28621.4%+11.12
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners19421.1%+7.62
11-13 runners8112.5%−0.50
5-7 runners6116.7%+20.00
14-16 runners2150%+3.00
2-4 runners11100%+2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 13 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 13 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 10 had their first archived run for this yard.
12 have since run for another yard, most often for David & Nicola Barron (10); 1 has no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
241825·········
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Kynren (IRE) — bet365 Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Ascot · Oct 2019 · Class 2
Progeny have won 10.2% of 2,469 runs since 2008 (186 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.7% from 162. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 15.9% from 157.
Epaulette (AUS)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 9.1% of 3,066 runs since 2008 (221 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4% from 173. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 222.
Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,644 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.5% from 244. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.7% from 136.
Progeny have won 8.3% of 3,630 runs since 2008 (218 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.5% from 349. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.5% from 384.
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,723 runs since 2008 (100 horses). Strongest on Good going: 11.4% from 368. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.4% from 145.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 6,311 · newest first
The latest 50 of 6,311 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 17 March 2022.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is David Barron's strike rate?
David Barron has won 8 of 36 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 22.2% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is David Barron's Fair A/E?
1.26, from 36 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
David Barron·SR 22.2%·A/E 1.26
KTB
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