Chris Ward
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 50 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.93). Rides mostly for Deborah Cole — 58% of rides in the window.
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3% (n=67, Fair A/E 0.58). Deborah Cole supplies 58% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.5%, A/E 0.94). The rider also reads well in Chase races (18.5%, n=54) and off a 15-30-day break (11.5%, n=78). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 2% over 50 rides, 4.9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.70 across 179 rides (3.9% strike, −79.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.9% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2010→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 620 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 620 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 11 June 2010 to 20 July 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Chris Ward's strike rate?
- Chris Ward has won 17 of 245 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.9% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Chris Ward do best at?
- Stratford by strike rate: 2 wins from 31 rides (6.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Chris Ward ride most for?
- Deborah Cole, with 142 rides since 2022 — 58% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (8.5%).
- What is Chris Ward's Fair A/E?
- 0.93, from 245 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.