Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 10.5%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.3%−2.8
n=19 · A/E 1.37 · £1 −8.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
20%+11.9
n=10 · A/E 1.93 · £1 +2.57
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.1
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−8.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
100%
n=2 · A/E 2.07 · £1 +1.82
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10.5%+2.4
n=57 · A/E 1.55 · £1 +7.82
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up10.5% vs 8.1% · n=57
Off a 15-30-day break5.9% vs 8.1% · n=51
On Standard (AW) going9% vs 8.1% · n=67 · A/E 1.33
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat7967.6%−19.68
Hurdle20210%+3.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)6769%−7.68
Good1715.9%−13.00
Good to Firm700%−7.00
Good to Soft400%−4.00
Soft4125%+15.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW)4237.1%−2.43
Southwell (AW)25312%−5.25
Uttoxeter1715.9%+2.00
Nottingham500%−5.00
Leicester500%−5.00
Southwell100%−1.00
Stratford100%−1.00
Doncaster100%−1.00
Haydock100%−1.00
Huntingdon11100%+3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 66457.8%−6.25
Class 52727.4%−21.43
Class 48112.5%+11.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite22100%2.07+1.82
2nd–3rd fav9111.1%0.72−5.00
4th–6th fav3339.1%1.07+3.50
7th+ in betting5523.6%1.15−17.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m6158.2%+11.00
1m2f – 1m4f3126.5%−22.25
2m1f – 2m4f400%−4.00
1m – 1m1f3133.3%−1.43
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20223725.4%−10.00
20231119.1%+4.00
20241417.1%+5.00
20252214.5%−20.43
202615320%+4.75
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps8766.9%−10.25
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners4424.5%−35.25
11-13 runners3026.7%+8.00
5-7 runners21314.3%+13.00
14-16 runners200%−2.00
2-4 runners2150%−0.43
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 11 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 11 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive.
1 has since run for another yard; 10 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
3300025001702500
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Chef De Troupe (FR) — Scott Mills Race Night 15th June Handicap Hurdle Uttoxeter · May 2024 · Class 4
£4,066
Fashionelle (IRE) — Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Fillies' Novice Stakes Wolverhampton (AW) · Jan 2025 · Class 5
£3,942
Hollins (GB) — Quicksilver Slots Play 500 Roulette Handicap Chase Uttoxeter · Dec 2013 · Class 4
Progeny have won 8.6% of 1,982 runs since 2008 (190 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.2% from 672. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.3% from 266. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.3% from 565.
Progeny have won 10.1% of 6,038 runs since 2008 (384 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.3% from 263. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.3% from 142.
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,848 runs since 2008 (416 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 189. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.5% from 142.
Progeny have won 11.6% of 4,781 runs since 2008 (411 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 368 · newest first
The latest 50 of 368 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 January 2005 to 19 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Tony Forbes's strike rate?
Tony Forbes has won 8 of 99 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tony Forbes do best at?
Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 3 wins from 42 runners (7.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Tony Forbes in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Tony Forbes's Fair A/E?
1.16, from 99 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Tony Forbes·SR 8.1%·A/E 1.16
KTB
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