Elliot Canal
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 20 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.76).
It is weakest at Deauville (FR) (2.3% over 43 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Claiming rides have been a poor signal at 2.4% (n=82, Fair A/E 0.52). The rider also read well over 1m – 1m1f (9.5%, n=42). The market has consistently overbet the rider on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 0.68 across 53 rides (3.8% strike, −39.10 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.4% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2011→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 110 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 110 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 19 January 2011 to 5 September 2015.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Elliot Canal's strike rate?
- Elliot Canal has won 7 of 110 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.4% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Elliot Canal do best at?
- Deauville (FR) by strike rate: 1 wins from 43 rides (2.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- What is Elliot Canal's Fair A/E?
- 0.76, from 102 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.