What is Harrison Shaw's strike rate?

Harrison Shaw has won 195 of 2,453 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Harrison Shaw do best at?

Musselburgh by strike rate: 13 wins from 103 rides (12.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Harrison Shaw ride most for?

Declan Carroll, with 346 rides since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 30 (8.7%).

What is Harrison Shaw's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 2,438 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Harrison Shaw

2,453 rides in the lifetime window · 1,070 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Nov 2025 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

195–2,453

Wins / Runs

7.9%

Strike rate

n=2,453

582 (24%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=2,438 · 0.81 incl. margin

−757.73

£1 level stake

n=2,453 at SP · −30.9%

£1.86m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.8%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 130 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 14% (196 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,453 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 27.5% when favourite Declan Carroll: 8.7% from 346 LTO winners: 13.8% Claiming: 9.9% Rides the favourite in 6% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Chester (15.2%, n=46), clear of the rider's 7.9% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 13.8% (n=196, Fair A/E 0.91), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.5% (n=356, Fair A/E 0.83). Declan Carroll supplies 14% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.7%, A/E 0.89). The rider also reads well at trips under 6f (13.2%, n=524) and off a 0-7-day break (14%, n=186). The standout partner of the record: Maid In Manhattan (IRE) — 6 wins from 9 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.8%−1.1

n=1,070 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −285.00

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

13.8%+5.9

n=196 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −66.80

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

6.2%−1.7

n=356 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −84.75

When favourite

27.5%

n=138 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −19.40

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

9.9%+2.0

n=918 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −263.21

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.5%−3.4

n=356 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −175.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.9

n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At trips under 6f 13.2% vs 7.9% · n=524

With Rebecca Menzies 17.1% vs 7.9% · n=35

Off a 0-7-day break 14% vs 7.9% · n=186

On last-time-out winners 13.8% vs 7.9% · n=196

At Chester 15.2% vs 7.9% · n=46

With Julie Camacho 0% vs 7.9% · n=34

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 833 61 7.3% −269.75

Good 548 51 9.3% −103.76

Good to Firm 474 36 7.6% −182.52

Soft 291 23 7.9% −129.03

Good to Soft 255 19 7.5% −63.42

Heavy 52 5 9.6% −9.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 363 27 7.4% −88.13

Wolverhampton (AW) 210 15 7.1% −68.87

Southwell (AW) 204 12 5.9% −111.00

Catterick 170 19 11.2% −53.91

Redcar 168 12 7.1% −65.25

Thirsk 156 11 7.1% −61.65

Beverley 127 6 4.7% −91.50

Ripon 105 7 6.7% +9.50

Musselburgh 103 13 12.6% −15.26

Doncaster 101 8 7.9% −7.67

Ayr 83 6 7.2% −45.45

Pontefract 78 8 10.3% +11.75

York 78 3 3.8% −36.00

Carlisle 77 6 7.8% −41.00

Haydock 69 7 10.1% +4.75

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 911 77 8.5% −235.89

Class 5 890 74 8.3% −247.88

Class 4 413 24 5.8% −194.00

Class 3 141 16 11.3% −5.96

Class 2 72 3 4.2% −52.00

Class 1 20 0 0% −20.00

Class 7 5 1 20% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 173 44 25.4% 0.97 −26.27

2nd–3rd fav 444 64 14.4% 0.95 −100.46

4th–6th fav 790 57 7.2% 0.95 −156.00

7th+ in betting 1,046 30 2.9% 0.94 −475.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Macho Pride (IRE) 25 2 5 24 Mar 23

Asmund (IRE) 24 2 5 30 Apr 24

Red Stripes (USA) 22 2 6 15 Aug 21

Natchez Trace (GB) 21 3 8 21 Jul 23

Someone Exciting (GB) 21 2 6 23 Sep 20

Economic Crisis (IRE) 18 5 8 2 May 21

Jackamundo (FR) 17 1 4 22 Dec 22

Ireland's Eye (IRE) 16 1 3 29 May 23

Highland Olly (GB) 15 3 6 16 Oct 25

King Of Tonga (IRE) 15 3 8 13 May 24

Emiyn (FR) 14 1 4 20 Apr 24

Yellow Bear (GB) 13 1 3 29 May 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,070 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

7935799129686

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDeclan Carroll

14% of all rides
8.7% SR · A/E 0.89

TrainerRWSR£1

Declan Carroll 346 30 8.7% −109.79

Michael Easterby 240 21 8.8% −48.87

K R Burke 233 17 7.3% −82.15

Bryan Smart 188 17 9% −14.75

Ben Haslam 145 14 9.7% −31.79

Grant Tuer 143 12 8.4% −34.80

David Thompson 79 5 6.3% −30.00

Adrian Nicholls 75 5 6.7% −28.00

Lisa Williamson 60 3 5% −17.50

Marjorie Fife 45 4 8.9% −19.50

Stef Keniry 43 4 9.3% −20.12

Alan Berry 35 5 14.3% −1.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

195

Archived wins

£1.86m

Prize money

2019

Best season · 35 wins

Tweet Tweet (GB) — Ire Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Stakes (Fillies' Handicap) York · Aug 2021 · Class 2

£36,078

Show Me Show Me (GB) — William Hill Build Your Odds Racing League Race Twenty-One (Handicap) Newcastle (AW) · Aug 2022 · Class 3

£25,770

Wootton'sun (FR) — William Hill Build Your Odds Racing League Race 28 (Handicap) Windsor · Sep 2022 · Class 3

£25,770

Notable horses

Maid In Manhattan (IRE) Economic Crisis (IRE) Natchez Trace (GB) Highland Olly (GB) King Of Tonga (IRE) Bosham (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dandy Man (IRE) 10.7% · 9–84

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,991 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 171.

Kodiac (GB) 6% · 5–83

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,606 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 255.

Camacho (GB) 11% · 8–73

Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,327 runs since 2009 (596 horses).

Fast Company (IRE) 3.5% · 2–57

Progeny have won 9.4% of 7,603 runs since 2014 (492 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.7% from 558. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.

Zebedee (GB) 9.3% · 5–54

Progeny have won 9% of 7,139 runs since 2014 (435 horses).

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 9.1% · 4–44

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,875 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,453 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,453 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 11 February 2017 to 8 November 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

08 Nov 25 Doncaster Trust Amy (IRE)T: Gary Hanmer Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts NurseryClass 4 · 6f · Heavy · 10 ran 6th 16/1

07 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Mick The Vest (GB)T: Bryan Smart Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 150/1

06 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Rock Armour (IRE)T: David Thompson Midnite A Next Generation Betting App HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 125/1

04 Nov 25 Redcar Jamaican Storm (GB)T: Bryan Smart Bowel Cancer Screening Programme Saves Lives HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 10th 25/1

04 Nov 25 Redcar Brave Traveller (GB)T: Bryan Smart Racing TV Free Trial Now EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Good · 15 ran 6th 66/1

31 Oct 25 Newmarket Al Hussar (GB)T: Grant Tuer 156 Grosser Preis Von Baden HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 11/2

30 Oct 25 Southwell (AW) Letiza (IRE)T: Adrian Nicholls Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 6 ran 6th 22/1

29 Oct 25 Nottingham High Opinion (GB)T: Bryan Smart PricedUp Sheriff Of Nottingham HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 9 ran 7th 13/2

28 Oct 25 Catterick Station X (GB)T: Bryan Smart Champions Full Gallop On ITV HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Soft · 10 ran 2nd 15/8F

27 Oct 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Shielas Well (IRE)T: Grant Tuer Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 5 ran 3rd 18/1

25 Oct 25 Doncaster Trust Amy (IRE)T: Gary Hanmer William Hill Prospect Stakes (Registered As The Doncaster Stakes) (Listed)Class 1 · 6f · Heavy · 7 ran 5th 40/1

24 Oct 25 Doncaster Station X (GB)T: Bryan Smart Final One Standing By William Hill HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Soft · 14 ran 2nd 13/2

23 Oct 25 Nottingham Wichahpi (GB)T: Bryan Smart PricedUp Daily Sports Boosts HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Heavy · 12 ran 2nd 9/1

18 Oct 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Good Point (GB)T: Bryan Smart Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 2nd 13/2

18 Oct 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Bedford (GB)T: Alan King Genting Casino Wolverhampton HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 25/1

17 Oct 25 Haydock High Opinion (GB)T: Bryan Smart BOG Today For Tomorrow With CopyBet HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 9th 18/1

16 Oct 25 Southwell (AW) Mr Zippi (GB)T: Sara Ender attheraces.com/marketmovers HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 14/1

16 Oct 25 Southwell (AW) Highland Olly (GB)T: Grant Tuer Arc All-Weather 1MILLION Bonus Returns HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 11/1

14 Oct 25 Newcastle (AW) Dc Cogent (GB)T: Bryan Smart Joan Coote Memorial HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 10/3J

14 Oct 25 Newcastle (AW) Thornaby Annie (IRE)T: Adrian Nicholls Margaret Macklam Memorial NurseryClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Harrison Shaw's strike rate?: Harrison Shaw has won 195 of 2,453 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Harrison Shaw do best at?: Musselburgh by strike rate: 13 wins from 103 rides (12.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Harrison Shaw ride most for?: Declan Carroll, with 346 rides since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 30 (8.7%).
What is Harrison Shaw's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 2,438 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.