What is Harrison Shaw's strike rate?

Harrison Shaw has won 71 of 1,009 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Harrison Shaw do best at?

Catterick by strike rate: 6 wins from 49 rides (12.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Harrison Shaw ride most for?

Declan Carroll, with 227 rides since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (9.3%).

What is Harrison Shaw's Fair A/E?

0.88, from 1,002 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Harrison Shaw

1,009 rides in the last 5 seasons · 459 individual horses

As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 358 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2022

71–1,009

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=1,009

224 (22%)

Placed

0.88

Fair A/E

n=1,002 · 0.74 incl. margin

−343.16

£1 level stake

n=1,009 at SP · −34.0%

£828k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.8%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 200 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.88). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 10% (71 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,009 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 1 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Oct 24% when favourite Declan Carroll: 9.3% from 227 LTO winners: 9.9% Rides the favourite in 5% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Catterick (12.2%, n=49) and Nottingham (11.8%, n=34) — all clear of the rider's 7% baseline. The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 4.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.78 and −58.00 to a £1 stake over 136 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Declan Carroll supplies 22% of the rides and edges the rider's average (9.3% vs 7%, A/E 0.89). The rider also reads well at trips under 6f (11.4%, n=219) and off a break of 180+ days (11.3%, n=53). The standout partner of the record: Maid In Manhattan (IRE) — 6 wins from 9 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Aug–Oct.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.8%−1.2

n=411 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −116.15

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

9.9%+2.9

n=71 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −32.92

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

6%−1.0

n=168 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −40.00

When favourite

24%

n=50 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −12.37

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.4%−2.6

n=136 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −58.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.0

n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With headgear back on 16.7% vs 7% · n=30

With first-time headgear 0% vs 7% · n=30

At trips under 6f 11.4% vs 7% · n=219

At Catterick 12.2% vs 7% · n=49

Off a break of 180+ days 11.3% vs 7% · n=53

At Nottingham 11.8% vs 7% · n=34

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 324 22 6.8% −120.62

Good 238 20 8.4% −61.17

Good to Firm 195 9 4.6% −106.50

Soft 117 10 8.5% −34.12

Good to Soft 108 9 8.3% −8.75

Heavy 27 1 3.7% −12.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 144 8 5.6% −58.25

Southwell (AW) 94 5 5.3% −50.00

Redcar 91 3 3.3% −74.00

Thirsk 78 4 5.1% −35.00

Wolverhampton (AW) 67 6 9% −27.37

Beverley 62 3 4.8% −39.50

Doncaster 60 6 10% +0.33

Catterick 49 6 12.2% −21.62

Ripon 43 3 7% +23.00

Carlisle 39 3 7.7% −22.00

Nottingham 34 4 11.8% −12.25

York 32 1 3.1% −17.00

Musselburgh 31 3 9.7% −15.50

Haydock 29 1 3.4% +0.00

Pontefract 24 3 12.5% +34.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 392 28 7.1% −114.86

Class 6 353 28 7.9% −115.80

Class 4 166 8 4.8% −88.50

Class 3 57 6 10.5% +12.00

Class 2 31 1 3.2% −26.00

Class 1 9 0 0% −9.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 63 15 23.8% 0.95 −11.62

2nd–3rd fav 183 19 10.4% 0.69 −74.04

4th–6th fav 345 25 7.2% 1.00 −57.50

7th+ in betting 418 12 2.9% 0.94 −200.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Asmund (IRE) 17 2 2 30 Apr 24

Highland Olly (GB) 15 3 6 16 Oct 25

King Of Tonga (IRE) 15 3 8 13 May 24

Natchez Trace (GB) 14 2 6 21 Jul 23

Jackamundo (FR) 12 1 3 22 Dec 22

Shielas Well (IRE) 11 2 5 27 Oct 25

Macho Pride (IRE) 11 0 2 24 Mar 23

High Opinion (GB) 10 1 3 29 Oct 25

Empire Of Light (IRE) 10 1 7 26 Jul 25

Gunnerside (IRE) 10 1 3 10 Jan 25

Emiyn (FR) 10 0 3 20 Apr 24

Yellow Bear (GB) 10 1 2 29 May 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 459 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

04241095108858

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDeclan Carroll

22% of all rides
9.3% SR · A/E 0.89

TrainerRWSR£1

Declan Carroll 227 21 9.3% −62.96

Bryan Smart 148 12 8.1% −45.75

Grant Tuer 142 12 8.5% −33.80

Adrian Nicholls 74 5 6.8% −27.00

Ben Haslam 39 2 5.1% −7.00

Jessica Macey 31 1 3.2% −25.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

195

Archived wins

£1.86m

Prize money

2019

Best season · 35 wins

Tweet Tweet (GB) — Ire Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Stakes (Fillies' Handicap) York · Aug 2021 · Class 2

£36,078

Show Me Show Me (GB) — William Hill Build Your Odds Racing League Race Twenty-One (Handicap) Newcastle (AW) · Aug 2022 · Class 3

£25,770

Wootton'sun (FR) — William Hill Build Your Odds Racing League Race 28 (Handicap) Windsor · Sep 2022 · Class 3

£25,770

Notable horses

Maid In Manhattan (IRE) Economic Crisis (IRE) Natchez Trace (GB) Highland Olly (GB) King Of Tonga (IRE) Bosham (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 9.5% · 4–42

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,582 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Dandy Man (IRE) 6.5% · 2–31

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,959 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Camacho (GB) 3.6% · 1–28

Progeny have won 8.1% of 9,324 runs since 2008 (596 horses).

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 7.4% · 2–27

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,853 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.

Fast Company (IRE) 3.8% · 1–26

Progeny have won 9.4% of 7,598 runs since 2008 (492 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.7% from 558. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.

Aclaim (IRE) 21.7% · 5–23

Progeny have won 9.9% of 2,547 runs since 2008 (201 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.7% from 390.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,453 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,453 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 11 February 2017 to 8 November 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

08 Nov 25 Doncaster Trust Amy (IRE)T: Gary Hanmer Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts NurseryClass 4 · 6f · Heavy · 10 ran 6th 16/1

07 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Mick The Vest (GB)T: Bryan Smart Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 150/1

06 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Rock Armour (IRE)T: David Thompson Midnite A Next Generation Betting App HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 125/1

04 Nov 25 Redcar Jamaican Storm (GB)T: Bryan Smart Bowel Cancer Screening Programme Saves Lives HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 10th 25/1

04 Nov 25 Redcar Brave Traveller (GB)T: Bryan Smart Racing TV Free Trial Now EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Good · 15 ran 6th 66/1

31 Oct 25 Newmarket Al Hussar (GB)T: Grant Tuer 156 Grosser Preis Von Baden HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 11/2

30 Oct 25 Southwell (AW) Letiza (IRE)T: Adrian Nicholls Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 6 ran 6th 22/1

29 Oct 25 Nottingham High Opinion (GB)T: Bryan Smart PricedUp Sheriff Of Nottingham HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 9 ran 7th 13/2

28 Oct 25 Catterick Station X (GB)T: Bryan Smart Champions Full Gallop On ITV HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Soft · 10 ran 2nd 15/8F

27 Oct 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Shielas Well (IRE)T: Grant Tuer Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 5 ran 3rd 18/1

25 Oct 25 Doncaster Trust Amy (IRE)T: Gary Hanmer William Hill Prospect Stakes (Registered As The Doncaster Stakes) (Listed)Class 1 · 6f · Heavy · 7 ran 5th 40/1

24 Oct 25 Doncaster Station X (GB)T: Bryan Smart Final One Standing By William Hill HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Soft · 14 ran 2nd 13/2

23 Oct 25 Nottingham Wichahpi (GB)T: Bryan Smart PricedUp Daily Sports Boosts HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Heavy · 12 ran 2nd 9/1

18 Oct 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Good Point (GB)T: Bryan Smart Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 2nd 13/2

18 Oct 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Bedford (GB)T: Alan King Genting Casino Wolverhampton HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 25/1

17 Oct 25 Haydock High Opinion (GB)T: Bryan Smart BOG Today For Tomorrow With CopyBet HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 9th 18/1

16 Oct 25 Southwell (AW) Mr Zippi (GB)T: Sara Ender attheraces.com/marketmovers HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 14/1

16 Oct 25 Southwell (AW) Highland Olly (GB)T: Grant Tuer Arc All-Weather 1MILLION Bonus Returns HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 11/1

14 Oct 25 Newcastle (AW) Dc Cogent (GB)T: Bryan Smart Joan Coote Memorial HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 10/3J

14 Oct 25 Newcastle (AW) Thornaby Annie (IRE)T: Adrian Nicholls Margaret Macklam Memorial NurseryClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Harrison Shaw's strike rate?: Harrison Shaw has won 71 of 1,009 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Harrison Shaw do best at?: Catterick by strike rate: 6 wins from 49 rides (12.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Harrison Shaw ride most for?: Declan Carroll, with 227 rides since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (9.3%).
What is Harrison Shaw's Fair A/E?: 0.88, from 1,002 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.