What is Harry Derham's strike rate?

Harry Derham has won 50 of 353 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 14.2% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Harry Derham do best at?

Wincanton by strike rate: 11 wins from 35 rides (31.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Harry Derham ride most for?

Paul Nicholls, with 258 rides since 2008 — 73% of the total. That pairing has won 41 (15.9%).

What is Harry Derham's Fair A/E?

0.91, from 352 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Harry Derham

353 rides in the lifetime window · 174 individual horses

As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride May 2014 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2010→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

50–353

Wins / Runs

14.2%

Strike rate

n=353

133 (38%)

Placed

0.91

Fair A/E

n=352 · 0.78 incl. margin

−120.69

£1 level stake

n=353 at SP · −34.2%

£758k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

19.4%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 70 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 14% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.91). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 36% (62 rides). Rode mostly for Paul Nicholls — 73% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 353 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 28 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance 32.5% when favourite Paul Nicholls: 15.9% from 258 LTO winners: 35.5% Claiming: 15% Rode the favourite in 22% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Wincanton (31.4%, n=35), clear of the rider's 14.2% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 35.5% (n=62, Fair A/E 1.49), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.6% (n=108, Fair A/E 0.67). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 13.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.84 and −76.35 to a £1 stake over 174 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Paul Nicholls supplied 73% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (15.9%, A/E 0.94). The rider also read well on Good to Firm going (29%, n=31). The record read poorly in Class 2 — 5.7% over 70 rides, 8.5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 1: Fair A/E 0.74 across 63 rides (6.3% strike, −27.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Dec 2012, £56,950).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

13.2%−1.0

n=174 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −76.35

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

35.5%+21.3

n=62 · A/E 1.49 · £1 +32.00

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

10.1%−4.1

n=99 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −49.20

When favourite

32.5%

n=77 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −18.35

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

15%+0.8

n=327 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −96.94

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.6%−8.6

n=108 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −46.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

5.9%−8.3

n=34 · A/E 0.53 · £1 −19.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 35.5% vs 14.2% · n=62

At Wincanton 31.4% vs 14.2% · n=35

On Good to Firm going 29% vs 14.2% · n=31

In Class 2 5.7% vs 14.2% · n=70

In Class 1 6.3% vs 14.2% · n=63

With C&D winners 22.5% vs 14.2% · n=40

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 212 36 17% −51.10

Chase 111 9 8.1% −66.21

NH Flat 30 5 16.7% −3.38

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 124 17 13.7% −64.73

Good to Soft 80 7 8.8% −47.06

Soft 64 9 14.1% −14.87

Heavy 46 7 15.2% −10.23

Good to Firm 31 9 29% +11.20

Standard (AW) 8 1 12.5% +5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Cheltenham 44 3 6.8% −5.50

Wincanton 35 11 31.4% +16.29

Taunton 25 4 16% −12.23

Newbury 20 2 10% −13.50

Newton Abbot 19 7 36.8% +5.23

Kempton 18 3 16.7% −1.00

Aintree 17 1 5.9% −13.25

Sandown 16 0 0% −16.00

Ascot 14 1 7.1% −6.50

Chepstow 13 1 7.7% −9.50

Worcester 12 1 8.3% −10.60

Haydock 10 0 0% −10.00

Exeter 10 2 20% −5.88

Fontwell 9 2 22.2% −3.75

Ffos Las 8 2 25% −2.38

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 3 93 18 19.4% −9.53

Class 4 76 16 21.1% −11.19

Class 2 70 4 5.7% −43.75

Class 1 63 4 6.3% −27.00

Class 5 31 4 12.9% −20.75

Class 6 19 4 21.1% −7.47

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 92 27 29.3% 1.00 −20.85

2nd–3rd fav 109 16 14.7% 0.87 −25.84

4th–6th fav 73 5 6.8% 0.75 −25.00

7th+ in betting 79 2 2.5% 0.62 −49.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83% completed · 323 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 111 82% 4 2 13 1 0

Hurdle 212 83.5% 8 2 22 2 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Takeroc (FR) 12 3 7 12 Apr 12

Brampour (IRE) 11 2 3 30 Apr 13

Edgardo Sol (FR) 10 0 5 16 Apr 14

Current Event (FR) 10 3 4 25 Oct 13

Henry Hook (IRE) 8 1 3 25 Apr 13

Foggy's Wall (IRE) 6 2 3 25 Apr 14

Salubrious (IRE) 6 2 3 5 Apr 14

Deireadh Re (IRE) 6 1 1 30 Jun 13

Royal Charm (FR) 6 0 1 18 Apr 13

Earth Planet (IRE) 6 0 3 5 Apr 12

Domtaline (FR) 5 0 1 11 Apr 14

Empire Levant (USA) 5 1 2 15 Mar 14

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 174 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

131412208131805011128

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardPaul Nicholls

73% of all rides
15.9% SR · A/E 0.94

TrainerRWSR£1

Paul Nicholls 258 41 15.9% −75.85

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2010→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£758k

Prize money

2013

Best season · 15 wins

Unioniste (FR) — Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup (Grade 3 Handicap Chase) Cheltenham · Dec 2012 · Class 1

£56,950

Brampour (IRE) — Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cheltenham · Nov 2011 · Class 1

£56,950

Salubrious (IRE) — Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Cheltenham · Mar 2013 · Class 2

£31,280

Notable horses

Takeroc (FR) Current Event (FR) Themilanhorse (IRE) Aldopicgros (FR) Brampour (IRE) Foggy's Wall (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Presenting (GB) 19% · 4–21

Progeny have won 11% of 20,050 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Take Risks (FR) 20% · 3–15

Progeny have won 9.8% of 935 runs since 2008 (91 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.6% from 110. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.2% from 115. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15.5% from 174. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.6% from 152.

Old Vic (GB) 7.7% · 1–13

Progeny have won 11.7% of 6,916 runs since 2008 (630 horses).

Muhtathir (GB) 25% · 3–12

Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,714 runs since 2008 (494 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.9% from 967.

Westerner (GB) 0% · 0–12

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,837 runs since 2008 (941 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Beneficial (GB) 36.4% · 4–11

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,044 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 353 · newest first

The latest 50 of 353 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 19 October 2010 to 21 May 2014.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

21 May 14 Newton Abbot Vide Cave (FR)T: Paul Nicholls At The Races Sky 415 Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 18.5f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 4th 6/1

21 May 14 Newton Abbot Vesperal Dream (FR)T: Paul Nicholls NewtonAbbotRace On Twitter Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 1st 8/13F

16 May 14 Aintree Lovey Dovey (IRE)T: Simon West Happy 10th Birthday Racing UK Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 14 ran 5th 10/1

13 May 14 Wincanton Urubu D'irlande (FR)T: Paul Nicholls Charlton House Cup Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 2/1F

30 Apr 14 Punchestown Grandioso (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Guinness Handicap Chase (Grade A)20f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 6th 15/2

30 Apr 14 Punchestown On The Way Out (IRE)T: John E Kiely Martinstown Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle (95-123)20f · Good To Yielding · 25 ran 10th 40/1

26 Apr 14 Sandown Ceasar Milan (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Bet365 Handicap HurdleClass 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 4/1F

26 Apr 14 Sandown Sound Investment (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Bet365 Josh Gifford Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 13/2

25 Apr 14 Newton Abbot Silsol (GER)T: Paul Nicholls Newquay Zoo Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 1st 4/7F

25 Apr 14 Newton Abbot Foggy's Wall (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls National Coastwatch Teignmouth Station Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good · 9 ran 1st 1/2F

23 Apr 14 Taunton Tara Point (GB)T: Paul Nicholls Bathwick Tyres Salisbury Mares' Standard Open National Hunt Flat RaceClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 12 ran 1st 3/1

21 Apr 14 Chepstow Harry The Viking (GB)T: Paul Nicholls Prostate Cymru Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 23.5f · Good · 6 ran 5th 9/4F

20 Apr 14 Plumpton Dildar (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls totepool Sussex Champion Hurdle (Handicap)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 11 ran F 5/1F

19 Apr 14 Newton Abbot Shooters Wood (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls SIS Top Class Data Delivery Handicap ChaseClass 2 · 16.5f · Good · 6 ran 5th 10/1

17 Apr 14 Cheltenham Lovey Dovey (IRE)T: Simon West OLBG.com Supports Mares' Jump Racing Mares' Handicap Hurdle (Listed)Class 1 · 21.5f · Good · 19 ran PU 20/1

16 Apr 14 Cheltenham For Two (FR)T: Paul Nicholls Endsleigh Insurance Pony Racing Authority Graduates' Handicap Hurdle (Conditionals And Amateurs)Class 3 · 17f · Good · 13 ran 6th 9/2F

16 Apr 14 Cheltenham Pay The King (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Messier-bugatti-dowty Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 24f · Good · 19 ran 8th 10/3F

16 Apr 14 Cheltenham Edgardo Sol (FR)T: Paul Nicholls Longcroft Building Services Handicap HurdleClass 2 · 20.5f · Good · 14 ran 3rd 14/1

15 Apr 14 Exeter More Buck's (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls Connolly's Red Mills Bumper Challenge Intermediate Open NH Flat Race (Div 2)Class 6 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 1st 13/8

13 Apr 14 Wincanton Do We Like Him (IRE)T: Paul Nicholls 32Red Premier Roulette Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 15.5f · Good · 10 ran 4th 6/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Harry Derham's strike rate?: Harry Derham has won 50 of 353 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 14.2% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Harry Derham do best at?: Wincanton by strike rate: 11 wins from 35 rides (31.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Harry Derham ride most for?: Paul Nicholls, with 258 rides since 2008 — 73% of the total. That pairing has won 41 (15.9%).
What is Harry Derham's Fair A/E?: 0.91, from 352 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.