Jake Hodson
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 50 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.70). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 9% (32 rides). Rode mostly for David Bridgwater — 50% of rides in the window.
The record is strongest at Towcester (10.8%, n=37), clear of the rider's 6.3% baseline. It is weakest at Worcester (0% over 42 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 9.4% (n=32, Fair A/E 0.64), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 0% (n=59, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 6.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.74 and −206.22 to a £1 stake over 449 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. David Bridgwater supplied 50% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (6.8%, A/E 0.70). The rider also read well in Class 5 (9.8%, n=163) and on Heavy going (10.3%, n=58). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 1.8% over 55 rides, 4.5pts below the baseline.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.3% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2009→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 473 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 473 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 26 January 2009 to 12 March 2017.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Jake Hodson's strike rate?
- Jake Hodson has won 30 of 473 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.3% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Jake Hodson do best at?
- Towcester by strike rate: 4 wins from 37 rides (10.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Jake Hodson ride most for?
- David Bridgwater, with 235 rides since 2008 — 50% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (6.8%).
- What is Jake Hodson's Fair A/E?
- 0.70, from 470 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.