James O'Sullivan
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 120 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.82). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 6% off breaks of two months or more (94 runs). Rides mostly for P J Rothwell — 56% of rides in the window.
The record is strongest at Kilbeggan (14.3%, n=42) and Ballinrobe (13.3%, n=30) — all clear of the rider's 4.7% baseline. It is weakest at Punchestown (0% over 57 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 3% strike, Fair A/E 0.71 and −254.75 to a £1 stake over 367 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. P J Rothwell supplies 56% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (4.3%, A/E 0.81). The rider also reads well off a 61-180-day break (9.8%, n=51). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the BoyleSports, Proud Sponsors Since 2014 Novice Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse (Mar 2024, £26,550). Seasonally, the rider fires Apr–Jun.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.7% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2011→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,610 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,610 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 5 July 2011 to 27 August 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is James O'Sullivan's strike rate?
- James O'Sullivan has won 28 of 592 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 4.7% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does James O'Sullivan do best at?
- Kilbeggan by strike rate: 6 wins from 42 rides (14.3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does James O'Sullivan ride most for?
- P J Rothwell, with 329 rides since 2022 — 56% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (4.3%).
- What is James O'Sullivan's Fair A/E?
- 0.82, from 592 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.