Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceMr N McParlan: 10.5% from 57Claiming riders: 20%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.8%−5.8
n=36 · A/E 0.50 · £1 −21.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−8.6
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Debutants · first career start
16.7%+8.1
n=12 · A/E 2.56 · £1 +1.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
50%+41.4
n=2 · A/E 10.70 · £1 +9.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−8.6
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
20%+11.4
n=30 · A/E 1.97 · £1 +18.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up20% vs 8.6% · n=30
On Good going16.1% vs 8.6% · n=31
Over 2m1f – 2m4f5.7% vs 8.6% · n=35
With a new jockey booking6.1% vs 8.6% · n=33
With Mr N McParlan10.5% vs 8.6% · n=57 · A/E 1.64
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle4037.5%−15.50
Chase2627.7%−9.00
NH Flat11218.2%+5.50
Flat400%−4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good31516.1%+10.00
Soft2613.8%−18.50
Good to Soft1815.6%−8.50
Heavy300%−3.00
Standard (AW)300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Downpatrick1616.3%−8.50
Perth10220%+1.50
Punchestown900%−9.00
Wexford600%−6.00
Down Royal5120%+4.50
Cartmel4125%+11.00
Hexham4125%−0.50
Galway400%−4.00
Kilbeggan400%−4.00
Ayr300%−3.00
Dundalk (AW)300%−3.00
Fairyhouse300%−3.00
Navan300%−3.00
Sligo200%−2.00
Listowel100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 413323.1%+9.50
Class 59222.2%+9.50
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite300%0.00−3.00
2nd–3rd fav11327.3%1.92+4.00
4th–6th fav19421.1%3.06+24.00
7th+ in betting4800%0.00−48.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f3525.7%−22.00
2m5f – 3m20210%+2.50
1m5f – 2m19315.8%+3.50
Over 3m400%−4.00
1m2f – 1m4f200%−2.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221100%−11.00
20231218.3%−4.50
202421314.3%+5.50
20252015%−14.50
202617211.8%+1.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4636.5%−18.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners2229.1%−6.50
8-10 runners18211.1%+4.50
14-16 runners1516.7%−4.00
17+ runners1300%−13.00
5-7 runners12216.7%−3.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 24 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 24 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive; 13 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard, most often for Noel C. Kelly (2); 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00033130176013017
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
22
Archived wins
£189k
Prize money
2020
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 7.9% of 556 runs since 2008 (59 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 11.2% from 179. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.8% from 167.
Martaline (GB)9.1% · 1–11
Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,340 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.
Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,082 runs since 2008 (217 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.2% from 155.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 337 · newest first
The latest 50 of 337 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 February 2005 to 13 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Sean McParlan's strike rate?
Sean McParlan has won 7 of 81 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.6% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Sean McParlan?
Mr N McParlan, with 57 runners since 2022 — 70% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (10.5%).
Is Sean McParlan in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Sean McParlan's Fair A/E?
1.44, from 81 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Sean McParlan·SR 8.6%·A/E 1.44
KTB
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