Skip to content
Jockey profile

Jefferson Smith

186 rides in the last 5 seasons · 124 individual horses
As at 30 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Sep 2025 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)
from 1 Jan 2022
16–186
Wins / Runs
8.6%
Strike rate
n=186
45 (24%)
Placed
0.97
Fair A/E
n=184 · 0.82 incl. margin
−35.18
£1 level stake
n=186 at SP · −18.9%
£214k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
13.3%
KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 40 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.97).

Deterministic profile computed from 186 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 30 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance First rides: 9.2%
The read

First rides on a horse are the standout value angle: 9.2% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.25 and +7.41 to a £1 stake over 120 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The rider also reads well on Good to Firm going (15.4%, n=39) and in Class 4 (14.3%, n=42). The record reads poorly off a 31-60-day break — 2.9% over 34 rides, 5.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 6: Fair A/E 0.63 across 57 rides (5.3% strike, −23.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.6% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
9.2%+0.6
n=120 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +7.41
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
37.5%+28.9
n=16 · A/E 1.93 · £1 +33.91
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
14.3%+5.7
n=28 · A/E 2.33 · £1 +13.50
When favourite
33.3%
n=9 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −0.68
Big fields · 14+ runners
11.1%+2.5
n=9 · A/E 4.30 · £1 +14.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.6
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good to Firm going 15.4% vs 8.6% · n=39
With Dean Ivory 15.6% vs 8.6% · n=32
In Class 4 14.3% vs 8.6% · n=42
Off a 31-60-day break 2.9% vs 8.6% · n=34
In Class 6 5.3% vs 8.6% · n=57
Over 1m – 1m1f 6% vs 8.6% · n=50
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 93 6 6.5% −45.59
Good to Firm 39 6 15.4% −2.59
Good 32 2 6.3% +3.00
Good to Soft 15 1 6.7% +8.00
Soft 5 0 0% −5.00
Heavy 2 1 50% +7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Chelmsford City (AW) 21 0 0% −21.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 21 1 4.8% +0.00
Southwell (AW) 15 1 6.7% −7.50
Lingfield (AW) 15 0 0% −15.00
Kempton (AW) 15 3 20% −0.59
Yarmouth 15 2 13.3% −5.50
Lingfield 10 0 0% −10.00
Newmarket 7 0 0% −7.00
Windsor 7 0 0% −7.00
Sandown 7 0 0% −7.00
Newcastle (AW) 6 1 16.7% −1.50
Bath 5 0 0% −5.00
Ascot 5 1 20% +18.00
Chester 5 0 0% −5.00
Haydock 4 1 25% +22.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 68 5 7.4% −31.59
Class 6 57 3 5.3% −23.00
Class 4 42 6 14.3% +8.41
Class 3 10 1 10% −3.00
Class 2 6 1 16.7% +17.00
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 10 3 30% 1.02 −1.68
2nd–3rd fav 43 6 14% 0.81 −3.50
4th–6th fav 59 5 8.5% 1.17 −5.00
7th+ in betting 74 2 2.7% 1.03 −25.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Kratos (GB) 7 0 2 3 Jun 22
Molly Valentine (IRE) 5 0 1 24 Sep 25
Poet (GB) 5 0 0 1 Oct 22
Fully Deployed (GB) 4 0 0 14 Sep 23
Moonlit Cloud (GB) 4 2 4 30 Jun 23
Thomas Equinas (GB) 3 0 1 22 Sep 25
Onemoreandaway (IRE) 3 0 0 21 Sep 23
Kiaraad (GB) 3 1 2 26 Aug 23
Inverinate (IRE) 3 0 2 16 Aug 23
Achillea (GB) 3 0 2 15 Jul 23
Qabilah (USA) 3 1 1 24 Sep 22
Sound Angela (GB) 3 1 1 14 Sep 22
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 124 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
10020010716780··
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardRoger Varian
26% of all rides
10.4% SR · A/E 0.85
TrainerRWSR£1
Roger Varian 48 5 10.4% −19.09
Dean Ivory 32 5 15.6% +3.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→
54
Archived wins
£728k
Prize money
2014
Best season · 11 wins
The Big Board (IRE) — Ascot/1711 Learning To Work Bake-Off Competition Heritage Handicap Ascot · Jul 2023 · Class 2
£51,540
Saane (FR) — Prix de la Hetraie (Conditions) (3yo) (Polytrack) Deauville (FR) · Aug 2014
£14,167
Aimless Lady (FR) — Prix Paul Pousset Angers · May 2015
£12,791
Notable horses
Sound Angela (GB) High Star (FR) Shamatorio (FR) Moonlit Cloud (GB) Giogiobbo (GB) Aimless Lady (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Kodiac (GB) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,573 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.
Muhaarar (GB) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 11.6% of 4,803 runs since 2008 (414 horses).
Equiano (FR) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 9.1% of 7,539 runs since 2008 (549 horses).
Tamayuz (GB) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 10.4% of 5,187 runs since 2008 (401 horses).
Dark Angel (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,907 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.
Havana Grey (GB) 33.3% · 2–6
Progeny have won 13.2% of 4,576 runs since 2008 (418 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.3% from 104. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 418.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 473 · newest first

The latest 50 of 473 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 31 March 2013 to 27 September 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
27 Sep 25 Southwell (AW) Havechatma (GB)T: Dean Ivory Free Race Replays On attheraces.com HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 13/2
24 Sep 25 Kempton (AW) Molly Valentine (IRE)T: Dean Ivory Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events HandicapClass 6 · 11f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 13th 14/1
23 Sep 25 Lingfield (AW) Adace (GB)T: Dean Ivory Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 11/2
22 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Thomas Equinas (GB)T: Dean Ivory Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 2nd 10/1
22 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Maryland Star (GB)T: Dean Ivory Arc 1MILLION Bonus Has 150k Increase! Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 250/1
20 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Divot (GB)T: William Knight Perfect Wills & Estate Planners Ltd HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 7 ran 2nd 9/4
20 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Mist Of Time (GB)T: William Knight Perfect Wills & Estate Planners Ltd EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 50/1
19 Sep 25 Newcastle (AW) Startled Lady (GB)T: William Knight Jimbo Thompson Bluesky EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 4/1
18 Sep 25 Kempton (AW) English Lady (IRE)T: Dean Ivory Bet At racingtv.com Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 1st 9/2
17 Sep 25 Yarmouth Jungle Land (IRE)T: Hilal Kobeissi Sea Deer HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 7/1
16 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Apex Star (IRE)T: William Knight Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com 'Confined' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 16/1
12 Sep 25 Chester Zarathos (IRE)T: Dylan Cunha ESL Export Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 5/4F
11 Sep 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Adace (GB)T: Dean Ivory Bet At Your Best With Betfair HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 2nd 14/1
06 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Le Pelerin (GB)T: William Knight Dan & Gemma - Holly & Brad HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 15/2
02 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Molly Valentine (IRE)T: Dean Ivory Visit wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk To Book Now Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 16/1
30 Sep 23 Chelmsford City (AW) Senor Pockets (GB)T: Henry Spiller Firework Spectacular At Chelmsford City Racecourse Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 22/1
30 Sep 23 Chelmsford City (AW) Legende D'art (IRE)T: Henry Spiller Chelmsford City Racecourse Membership HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 50/1
30 Sep 23 Chelmsford City (AW) Sugarloaf Lenny (IRE)T: William Knight EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 66/1
27 Sep 23 Kempton (AW) High Court Judge (USA)T: Henry Spiller Unibet Support Safe Gambling HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 7th 20/1
27 Sep 23 Kempton (AW) Burlington House (FR)T: Henry Spiller Unibet Horserace Betting-Operator Of The Year/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 6th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Jefferson Smith's strike rate?
Jefferson Smith has won 16 of 186 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.6% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Jefferson Smith's Fair A/E?
0.97, from 184 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 30 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).