What is Jefferson Smith's strike rate?

Jefferson Smith has won 54 of 473 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 11.4% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Jefferson Smith do best at?

Deauville (FR) by strike rate: 15 wins from 92 rides (16.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Jefferson Smith ride most for?

Roger Varian, with 56 rides since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (12.5%).

What is Jefferson Smith's Fair A/E?

1.23, from 454 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Jefferson Smith

473 rides in the lifetime window · 330 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Sep 2025 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2013→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

54–473

Wins / Runs

11.4%

Strike rate

n=473

120 (25%)

Placed

1.23

Fair A/E

n=454 · 1.08 incl. margin

−11.10

£1 level stake

n=471 at SP · −2.4%

£728k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

13.3%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 20 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.23). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 38% (32 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 473 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Aug Fresh horses: 11.5% 40.9% when favourite Roger Varian: 12.5% from 56 LTO winners: 37.5% Claiming: 22% Rides the favourite in 9% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 37.5% (n=32, Fair A/E 2.05), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.6% (n=121, Fair A/E 1.35). Roger Varian supplies 12% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (12.5%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. Seasonally, the rider fires Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.4% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

10.6%−0.8

n=330 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −2.69

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

37.5%+26.1

n=32 · A/E 2.05 · £1 +39.04

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

11.5%+0.1

n=96 · A/E 1.76 · £1 +32.80

When favourite

40.9%

n=44 · A/E 1.16 · £1 +4.65

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

22%+10.6

n=82 · A/E 1.42 · £1 −7.50

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.6%−4.8

n=121 · A/E 1.35 · £1 −36.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−11.4

n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 37.5% vs 11.4% · n=32

With J-C Rouget 31.5% vs 11.4% · n=54

When claiming 22% vs 11.4% · n=82

With C&D winners 22% vs 11.4% · n=41

With debutants 2.8% vs 11.4% · n=71

With new recruits 3.2% vs 11.4% · n=31

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 237 30 12.7% −3.11

Good 89 8 9% +10.40

Good to Soft 49 3 6.1% −7.60

Good to Firm 45 6 13.3% −8.59

Soft 35 5 14.3% +1.40

Heavy 18 2 11.1% −3.60

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Deauville (FR) 92 15 16.3% +27.70

Chantilly (FR) 65 8 12.3% +46.00

Saint-Cloud (FR) 28 1 3.6% −24.30

Chelmsford City (AW) 27 0 0% −27.00

Maisons-Laffitte (FR) 24 1 4.2% −10.40

Wolverhampton (AW) 23 1 4.3% −2.00

Kempton (AW) 19 4 21.1% −1.34

Lingfield (AW) 18 1 5.6% −16.27

Yarmouth 17 2 11.8% −7.50

Longchamp (FR) 16 1 6.3% −10.10

Southwell (AW) 15 1 6.7% −7.50

Lingfield 11 0 0% −11.00

Newmarket 10 0 0% −10.00

Windsor 10 0 0% −10.00

Sandown 7 0 0% −7.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 86 7 8.1% −44.61

Class 6 60 3 5% −26.00

Class 4 51 6 11.8% −0.59

Class 3 10 1 10% −3.00

Class 2 7 1 14.3% +16.00

Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 45 18 40% 1.16 +3.65

2nd–3rd fav 84 18 21.4% 1.26 +27.45

4th–6th fav 112 13 11.6% 1.53 +22.20

7th+ in betting 230 5 2.2% 0.87 −64.40

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Kratos (GB) 7 0 2 3 Jun 22

Sound Angela (GB) 6 3 3 14 Sep 22

Il Decamerone (FR) 6 0 1 21 Jul 19

Vent Charlie (FR) 6 0 0 17 May 19

Molly Valentine (IRE) 5 0 1 24 Sep 25

Poet (GB) 5 0 0 1 Oct 22

Tsubaki (GB) 5 0 0 7 Apr 22

Eva Glitters (FR) 5 1 1 3 Jul 19

Shamatorio (FR) 5 2 2 29 Jun 19

Akiria (FR) 5 0 1 6 Nov 18

Fully Deployed (GB) 4 0 0 14 Sep 23

Moonlit Cloud (GB) 4 2 4 30 Jun 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 330 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

12239813714146131211

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardRoger Varian

12% of all rides
12.5% SR · A/E 1.01

TrainerRWSR£1

Roger Varian 56 7 12.5% −22.11

J-C Rouget 54 17 31.5% +19.30

Dean Ivory 32 5 15.6% +3.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2013→

Archived wins

£728k

Prize money

2014

Best season · 11 wins

The Big Board (IRE) — Ascot/1711 Learning To Work Bake-Off Competition Heritage Handicap Ascot · Jul 2023 · Class 2

£51,540

Saane (FR) — Prix de la Hetraie (Conditions) (3yo) (Polytrack) Deauville (FR) · Aug 2014

£14,167

Aimless Lady (FR) — Prix Paul Pousset Angers · May 2015

£12,791

Notable horses

Sound Angela (GB) High Star (FR) Shamatorio (FR) Moonlit Cloud (GB) Giogiobbo (GB) Aimless Lady (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Muhaarar (GB) 21.4% · 3–14

Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,840 runs since 2019 (415 horses).

Kodiac (GB) 0% · 0–13

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,606 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 255.

Equiano (FR) 0% · 0–12

Progeny have won 9.1% of 7,543 runs since 2014 (549 horses).

Dark Angel (IRE) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,957 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Le Havre (IRE) 50% · 4–8

Progeny have won 12.4% of 5,894 runs since 2013 (750 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.5% from 296. Weakest on Heavy going: 9.4% from 530.

Myboycharlie (IRE) 12.5% · 1–8

Progeny have won 7.8% of 3,316 runs since 2013 (315 horses). Weakest on Good to Firm going: 4% from 225. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 4.1% from 195.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 473 · newest first

The latest 50 of 473 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 31 March 2013 to 27 September 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

27 Sep 25 Southwell (AW) Havechatma (GB)T: Dean Ivory Free Race Replays On attheraces.com HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 1st 13/2

24 Sep 25 Kempton (AW) Molly Valentine (IRE)T: Dean Ivory Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events HandicapClass 6 · 11f · Standard To Slow · 14 ran 13th 14/1

23 Sep 25 Lingfield (AW) Adace (GB)T: Dean Ivory Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 11/2

22 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Thomas Equinas (GB)T: Dean Ivory Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 2nd 10/1

22 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Maryland Star (GB)T: Dean Ivory Arc 1MILLION Bonus Has 150k Increase! Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 250/1

20 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Divot (GB)T: William Knight Perfect Wills & Estate Planners Ltd HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 7 ran 2nd 9/4

20 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Mist Of Time (GB)T: William Knight Perfect Wills & Estate Planners Ltd EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 50/1

19 Sep 25 Newcastle (AW) Startled Lady (GB)T: William Knight Jimbo Thompson Bluesky EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 4/1

18 Sep 25 Kempton (AW) English Lady (IRE)T: Dean Ivory Bet At racingtv.com Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 1st 9/2

17 Sep 25 Yarmouth Jungle Land (IRE)T: Hilal Kobeissi Sea Deer HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 7/1

16 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Apex Star (IRE)T: William Knight Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com 'Confined' Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 16/1

12 Sep 25 Chester Zarathos (IRE)T: Dylan Cunha ESL Export Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 5/4F

11 Sep 25 Chelmsford City (AW) Adace (GB)T: Dean Ivory Bet At Your Best With Betfair HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 2nd 14/1

06 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Le Pelerin (GB)T: William Knight Dan & Gemma - Holly & Brad HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 3rd 15/2

02 Sep 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Molly Valentine (IRE)T: Dean Ivory Visit wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk To Book Now Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 16/1

30 Sep 23 Chelmsford City (AW) Senor Pockets (GB)T: Henry Spiller Firework Spectacular At Chelmsford City Racecourse Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 22/1

30 Sep 23 Chelmsford City (AW) Legende D'art (IRE)T: Henry Spiller Chelmsford City Racecourse Membership HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 50/1

30 Sep 23 Chelmsford City (AW) Sugarloaf Lenny (IRE)T: William Knight EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 66/1

27 Sep 23 Kempton (AW) High Court Judge (USA)T: Henry Spiller Unibet Support Safe Gambling HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 7th 20/1

27 Sep 23 Kempton (AW) Burlington House (FR)T: Henry Spiller Unibet Horserace Betting-Operator Of The Year/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 6th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Jefferson Smith's strike rate?: Jefferson Smith has won 54 of 473 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 11.4% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Jefferson Smith do best at?: Deauville (FR) by strike rate: 15 wins from 92 rides (16.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Jefferson Smith ride most for?: Roger Varian, with 56 rides since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (12.5%).
What is Jefferson Smith's Fair A/E?: 1.23, from 454 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.