What is Joseph O'Brien's strike rate?

Joseph O'Brien has won 518 of 2,622 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 19.8% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Joseph O'Brien do best at?

Navan by strike rate: 36 wins from 130 rides (27.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Joseph O'Brien ride most for?

A P O'Brien, with 1,537 rides since 2008 — 59% of the total. That pairing has won 411 (26.7%).

What is Joseph O'Brien's Fair A/E?

1.07, from 2,620 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Joseph O'Brien

2,622 rides in the lifetime window · 1,113 individual horses

As at 28 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Sep 2016 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

518–2,622

Wins / Runs

19.8%

Strike rate

n=2,622

1,064 (41%)

Placed

1.07

Fair A/E

n=2,620 · 0.87 incl. margin

−548.82

£1 level stake

n=2,622 at SP · −20.9%

£22.5m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

100%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 330 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 20% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.07). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 26% (424 rides). Rode mostly for A P O'Brien — 59% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 2,622 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 28 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Jul–Aug Fresh horses: 20.1% 41.3% when favourite A P O'Brien: 26.7% from 1,537 LTO winners: 25.9% Group/Graded: 22% Rode the favourite in 27% of races

The read

It is weakest at Ascot (9% over 78 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 25.9% (n=424, Fair A/E 1.03), but claiming rides have been a poor signal at 12.3% (n=640, Fair A/E 0.98). A P O'Brien supplied 59% of the rides and beats the rider's average (26.7% vs 19.8%, A/E 1.08) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record read poorly in Class 2 — 6.8% over 44 rides, 13pts below the baseline. 122 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Investec Derby at Epsom Downs (Jun 2014, £782,598). The standout partner of the record was Leading Light (IRE) — 7 wins from 9 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 19.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

16.6%−3.2

n=1,113 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −258.46

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

25.9%+6.1

n=424 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −90.66

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

20.1%+0.3

n=432 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −93.46

When favourite

41.3%

n=720 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −70.10

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

12.3%−7.5

n=640 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −122.14

Big fields · 14+ runners

12.5%−7.3

n=955 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −163.48

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

22%+2.2

n=555 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −171.29

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 19.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With headgear back on 7.4% vs 19.8% · n=81

With A P O'Brien 26.7% vs 19.8% · n=1,537

In Class 2 6.8% vs 19.8% · n=44

When claiming 12.3% vs 19.8% · n=640

At Ascot 9% vs 19.8% · n=78

With debutants 27.5% vs 19.8% · n=189

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,616 518 19.8% −542.82

Hurdle 5 0 0% −5.00

NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 656 121 18.4% −198.14

Good to Firm 526 128 24.3% −28.51

Good 515 100 19.4% −148.66

Standard (AW) 494 91 18.4% −49.83

Heavy 238 47 19.7% −66.63

Good to Soft 186 31 16.7% −50.05

Firm 7 0 0% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Curragh 500 102 20.4% −136.90

Dundalk 488 90 18.4% −47.08

Leopardstown 265 61 23% −67.53

Naas 134 25 18.7% −54.94

Navan 130 36 27.7% +25.09

Gowran Park 111 17 15.3% −45.70

Tipperary 99 25 25.3% −39.40

Galway 95 21 22.1% +17.35

Killarney 91 20 22% −27.64

Cork 86 17 19.8% −14.83

Ascot 78 7 9% −45.13

Listowel 74 9 12.2% −48.29

Fairyhouse 68 14 20.6% −8.21

Roscommon 61 9 14.8% −7.05

Down Royal 35 4 11.4% −17.79

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 556 122 21.9% −172.29

Class 2 44 3 6.8% −6.00

Class 4 13 6 46.2% +27.19

Class 5 6 1 16.7% +2.00

Class 3 4 1 25% +4.00

Class 6 1 1 100% +1.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 790 311 39.4% 1.09 −92.35

2nd–3rd fav 814 148 18.2% 1.08 −127.97

4th–6th fav 548 38 6.9% 0.84 −218.50

7th+ in betting 470 21 4.5% 1.09 −110.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Flavia Tatiana (IRE) 17 2 5 28 Aug 12

El Salvador (IRE) 15 4 8 25 Jul 14

Ahimsa (IRE) 15 1 4 8 Feb 13

Fairylike (IRE) 14 1 3 12 Jun 13

Harrison's Cave (GB) 14 2 6 21 Oct 12

Beach Of Falesa (IRE) 13 3 6 17 Sep 14

Empowering (IRE) 13 3 7 23 Aug 12

Snow Queen (IRE) 12 2 6 1 Aug 13

One True Love (IRE) 11 1 7 11 Aug 13

Afonso De Sousa (USA) 10 3 5 17 Oct 14

Darwin (USA) 10 3 5 5 Oct 14

Eye of The Storm (IRE) 10 4 6 28 Sep 14

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,113 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

131312192016222220231225

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardA P O'Brien

59% of all rides
26.7% SR · A/E 1.08

TrainerRWSR£1

A P O'Brien 1,537 411 26.7% −290.23

Patrick J Flynn 54 7 13% −11.25

John Joseph Murphy 43 4 9.3% −21.25

Ms Joanna Morgan 41 7 17.1% +27.83

C F Swan 36 5 13.9% +19.50

J A Nash 36 4 11.1% +1.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→

518

Archived wins

122

Pattern / graded wins

£22.5m

Prize money

2013

Best season · 146 wins

Australia (GB) — Investec Derby (Group 1) Epsom Downs · Jun 2014 · Group 1

£782,598

Camelot (GB) — Investec Derby (Group 1) Epsom Downs · Jun 2012 · Group 1

£751,408

Australia (GB) — Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) Curragh · Jun 2014 · Group 1

£725,000

Notable horses

Leading Light (IRE) Camelot (GB) Declaration Of War (USA) Australia (GB) Battle Of Marengo (IRE) El Salvador (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Galileo (IRE) 32.3% · 173–536

Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,195 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 889.

Montjeu (IRE) 30.7% · 55–179

Progeny have won 12.3% of 7,971 runs since 2008 (665 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.3% from 686.

Danehill Dancer (IRE) 16.1% · 18–112

Progeny have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since 2008 (783 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.

Oasis Dream (GB) 23.1% · 18–78

Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,014 runs since 2008 (1,510 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 483. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.

War Front (USA) 33.8% · 26–77

Progeny have won 15.7% of 2,496 runs since 2008 (297 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.9% from 923. Weakest on Good going: 10.9% from 533. Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 19.3% from 1,009.

Fastnet Rock (AUS) 29.2% · 21–72

Progeny have won 12.1% of 5,483 runs since 2008 (557 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,622 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,622 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 May 2009 to 7 September 2016.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Sep 16 Doncaster Phosphorescence (IRE)T: George Scott Clipper Logistics Leger Legends Classified Stakes (Str)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 1st 7/1

25 Oct 15 Leopardstown (IRE) Landofhopeandglory (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Best Odds Guaranteed For Tote Account Holders Eyrefield Stakes ()9f · Good To Yielding · 7 ran 2nd 2/1

25 Oct 15 Leopardstown (IRE) The Happy Prince (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Bet Online At thetote.com Knockaire Stakes ()7f · Good To Yielding · 7 ran 3rd 11/4

25 Oct 15 Leopardstown (IRE) Bravery (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Tote Quickpick Now Available European Breeders Fund Maiden (Colts & Geldings) (Plus 10 Race)7f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 2nd 3/1

24 Oct 15 Doncaster Deauville (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Racing Post Trophy (Group 1) (Str)Class 1 · 8f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 5th 7/2

23 Oct 15 Dundalk (AW) Eisenhower (USA)T: A P O'Brien Mercury Stakes (listed)5f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 9/1

21 Oct 15 Navan Gran Paradiso (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Come Racing Again Sunday 8th November Maiden13f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 2nd 3/1

20 Oct 15 Gowran Park Crocodile Rock (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Racing Again November 21st Maiden9.5f · Good · 17 ran 1st 8/11F

20 Oct 15 Gowran Park Kellstorm (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Maiden (Plus 10)8f · Good · 10 ran 7th 9/4

18 Oct 15 Naas Schubert (USA)T: A P O'Brien Tifrums E.B.F. (C & G) Maiden (Plus 10)6f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 4th 4/5F

17 Oct 15 Cork Akira (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Corkracecourse.ie Navigation Stakes (listed)8.5f · Yielding To Soft · 5 ran 2nd 6/4F

17 Oct 15 Cork Successor (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Coolmore Most Improved Maiden (Plus 10)7f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 5th 15/8

13 Oct 15 Curragh Willie The Warrior (IRE)T: W J Martin 2016 Flat Season Begins March 20th At Curragh Racecourse Handicap (47-65)12f · Good To Firm · 27 ran 20th 16/1

13 Oct 15 Curragh Idaho (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Maiden (Plus 10)8f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 1st 4/1

10 Oct 15 Limerick A Year To Remember (IRE)T: A P O'Brien McMahon's Supporting Limerick Community Games Maiden (Plus 10)7f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran 1st 5/2

09 Oct 15 Dundalk (AW) Loved (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (60-85)12f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 11/2

09 Oct 15 Dundalk (AW) Hit It A Bomb (USA)T: A P O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Star Appeal Stakes (Listed)7f · Standard · 6 ran 1st 2/5F

09 Oct 15 Newmarket Coolmore (IRE)T: A P O'Brien Dubai Fillies' Mile (Group 1)Class 1 · 8f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 6/1

07 Oct 15 Navan Prospector (USA)T: A P O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Maiden10f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 1st 5/1

07 Oct 15 Navan Talented Kid (GB)T: David Peter Nagle Meath Handicap10f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 10th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Joseph O'Brien's strike rate?: Joseph O'Brien has won 518 of 2,622 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 19.8% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Joseph O'Brien do best at?: Navan by strike rate: 36 wins from 130 rides (27.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Joseph O'Brien ride most for?: A P O'Brien, with 1,537 rides since 2008 — 59% of the total. That pairing has won 411 (26.7%).
What is Joseph O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 1.07, from 2,620 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.