Luke Leadbitter
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 40 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.82). Rode mostly for Declan Carroll — 71% of rides in the window.
The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 7.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.83 and −54.25 to a £1 stake over 138 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Declan Carroll supplied 71% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (7.5%, A/E 0.85). The market has consistently overbet the rider in Class 6: Fair A/E 0.62 across 57 rides (7% strike, −22.25 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.3% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2012→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 151 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 151 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 27 July 2012 to 21 May 2015.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Luke Leadbitter's strike rate?
- Luke Leadbitter has won 11 of 151 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which yard does Luke Leadbitter ride most for?
- Declan Carroll, with 107 rides since 2008 — 71% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (7.5%).
- What is Luke Leadbitter's Fair A/E?
- 0.82, from 150 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.