Patrick Martin
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 80 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.85).
It is weakest at Gowran Park (0% over 34 runners) — the widest gap in the record. The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.77 and −127.00 to a £1 stake over 261 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Jack Kearney rides 22% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5.6%, A/E 0.85). The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (8.5%, n=71). The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 0% over 32 runners, 5.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 61-180-day break: Fair A/E 0.52 across 50 runners (2% strike, −21.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Derrinstown Stud E.B.F. Birdcatcher Premier Nursery at Naas (Oct 2010, £45,500). The stable star of the record: Reckless Lad (IRE) — 10 wins from 78 runs for the yard.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.1% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstWhen the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasonsJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 3,663 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 3,663 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 29 January 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Patrick Martin's strike rate?
- Patrick Martin has won 21 of 410 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Patrick Martin do best at?
- Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 9 wins from 154 runners (5.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for Patrick Martin?
- Jack Kearney, with 89 runners since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (5.6%).
- What is Patrick Martin's Fair A/E?
- 0.85, from 410 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.