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Jockey profile

Michael Metcalfe

703 rides in the lifetime window · 329 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Jun 2013 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
62–703
Wins / Runs
8.8%
Strike rate
n=703
206 (29%)
Placed
0.94
Fair A/E
n=699 · 0.79 incl. margin
−212.60
£1 level stake
n=703 at SP · −30.2%
£406k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
9.5%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 120 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.94). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (63 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 703 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fired Jul–Aug 39.5% when favourite Mick Channon: 9.2% from 153 LTO winners: 19% Claiming: 8.9% Rode the favourite in 5% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Windsor (16.1%, n=31), clear of the rider's 8.8% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 19% (n=63, Fair A/E 1.20), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.2% (n=81, Fair A/E 0.18). The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 3.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.71 and −75.00 to a £1 stake over 134 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Mick Channon supplied 22% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (9.2%, A/E 0.85). The rider also read well on Soft going (17%, n=47) and over 1m – 1m1f (13.3%, n=165). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 33 rides, 8.8pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record was The Cayterers (GB) — 5 wins from 16 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.8% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
6.6%−2.2
n=320 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −101.28
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
19%+10.2
n=63 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −8.68
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
1.2%−7.6
n=81 · A/E 0.18 · £1 −71.50
When favourite
39.5%
n=38 · A/E 1.34 · £1 +2.07
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
8.9%+0.1
n=641 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −197.10
Big fields · 14+ runners
3.7%−5.1
n=134 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −75.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.8
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 19% vs 8.8% · n=63
On Soft going 17% vs 8.8% · n=47
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 8.8% · n=33
Off a 61-180-day break 2.1% vs 8.8% · n=48
At Windsor 16.1% vs 8.8% · n=31
Over 1m – 1m1f 13.3% vs 8.8% · n=165
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 256 22 8.6% −77.65
Good to Firm 177 16 9% −86.20
Good 124 7 5.6% −75.75
Good to Soft 67 6 9% −25.13
Soft 47 8 17% +62.63
Firm 17 1 5.9% −14.25
Heavy 15 2 13.3% +3.75

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW) 83 8 9.6% −18.25
Kempton (AW) 59 4 6.8% −20.75
Lingfield (AW) 52 6 11.5% −13.65
Southwell (AW) 47 3 6.4% −19.50
Bath 32 1 3.1% −29.25
Windsor 31 5 16.1% +20.50
Brighton 29 1 3.4% −24.50
Haydock 24 3 12.5% −12.62
Goodwood 23 1 4.3% −8.00
Doncaster 21 2 9.5% −3.38
Newbury 19 4 21.1% +26.00
Chepstow 18 1 5.6% −13.00
Nottingham 17 2 11.8% −5.25
Yarmouth 16 0 0% −16.00
Leicester 15 0 0% −15.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 266 22 8.3% −130.80
Class 5 223 24 10.8% −14.00
Class 4 112 10 8.9% −26.30
Class 3 55 5 9.1% −2.00
Class 2 39 1 2.6% −31.50
Class 7 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 51 18 35.3% 1.30 +1.82
2nd–3rd fav 144 16 11.1% 0.71 −62.92
4th–6th fav 237 22 9.3% 1.13 −17.50
7th+ in betting 271 6 2.2% 0.58 −134.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
The Cayterers (GB) 16 5 7 20 Oct 10
Red Somerset (USA) 15 4 8 9 Oct 09
Raimond Ridge (IRE) 14 1 4 30 Sep 09
Turkish Sultan (IRE) 12 0 5 30 Oct 09
Bateleur (GB) 11 1 4 16 Aug 09
Miss Firefly (GB) 10 0 4 6 Jul 09
Monsieur Reynard (GB) 9 0 4 21 Oct 09
The Jailer (GB) 9 1 3 14 Jul 09
The Grey One (IRE) 9 2 5 18 Jun 09
Mister Incredible (GB) 9 0 5 5 May 09
Yourartisonfire (GB) 8 1 4 6 Jun 13
Compton's Eleven (GB) 8 1 2 23 Oct 09
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 329 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
6615969101310707
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardMick Channon
22% of all rides
9.2% SR · A/E 0.85
TrainerRWSR£1
Mick Channon 153 14 9.2% −62.40
Mrs K Burke 113 15 13.3% +14.43
Milton Bradley 84 4 4.8% −53.00
Ron Hodges 71 9 12.7% −6.00
David Nicholls 66 6 9.1% −35.38
Tony Carroll 38 5 13.2% +8.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→
77
Archived wins
£480k
Prize money
2009
Best season · 22 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Red Somerset (USA) — William Hill January Sale - Bet Now! Handicap Lingfield (AW) · Jan 2009 · Class 2
£11,657
Hamoody (USA) — RUK Leading Jockey Award Handicap Goodwood · Jul 2010 · Class 3
£9,714
Compton's Eleven (GB) — betdirect.com Handicap Doncaster · Jun 2008 · Class 3
£9,714
Notable horses
The Cayterers (GB) Red Somerset (USA) The Jailer (GB) Rainbow Bay (GB) Alphabeth (GB) The Grey One (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Compton Place (GB) 6.5% · 3–46
Progeny have won 8.5% of 8,347 runs since 2008 (515 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.5% from 165.
Namid (GB) 9.5% · 2–21
Progeny have won 8.2% of 4,102 runs since 2008 (276 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 2.4% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 0.8% from 119.
Fraam (GB) 5.6% · 1–18
Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,027 runs since 2008 (136 horses).
Red Ransom (USA) 22.2% · 4–18
Progeny have won 9.7% of 3,290 runs since 2008 (303 horses). Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 13% from 687.
Cayman Kai (IRE) 31.3% · 5–16
Progeny have won 7.9% of 317 runs since 2008 (22 horses).
Bertolini (USA) 7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 941 · newest first

The latest 50 of 941 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 15 June 2006 to 8 June 2013.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
08 Jun 13 Catterick Reve De Nuit (USA)T: Mrs K Burke Win Big With totejackpot At totepool.com Classified Claiming StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 2nd 4/1
06 Jun 13 Thirsk Yourartisonfire (GB)T: Mrs K Burke GBI Racing Welcomes Nicosia Race Club HandicapClass 3 · 7f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 4th 7/2
01 Jun 13 Doncaster Hay Dude (GB)T: Mrs K Burke Ladbrokes Download The App Handicap (Str)Class 2 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 4th 8/1
27 May 13 Carlisle Spykes Bay (USA)T: Mrs K Burke 32Red Casino Handicap (Div 2)Class 5 · 5f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 1st 2/1F
24 May 13 Haydock Bold Prediction (IRE)T: Mrs K Burke Phs Waterlogic Classified StakesClass 4 · 6f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 5th 10/1
22 May 13 Southwell (AW) Reve De Nuit (USA)T: Mrs K Burke Talk To Victor Claiming StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard · 5 ran 1st 5/1
21 May 13 Pontefract Elizabeth Coffee (IRE)T: John Weymes Racing Uk On Sky Channel 432 Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 10f · Good · 13 ran 10th 25/1
21 May 13 Nottingham Dark Opal (IRE)T: John Weymes Eat In Our Rooftop Restaurant Handicap (Jockey Club Grassroots Sprint Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 8th 20/1
20 May 13 Southwell (AW) Angels Calling (GB)T: Mrs K Burke Download The Betvictor App Now HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 7/1
18 May 13 Doncaster Yourartisonfire (GB)T: Mrs K Burke Park Hill Hospital Handicap (Rnd)Class 3 · 8f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 9/2
11 May 13 Haydock Hay Dude (GB)T: Mrs K Burke Pertemps HandicapClass 3 · 8f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 1st 11/2
10 May 13 Chester Polar Kite (IRE)T: Sean Curran Cruise Nightspot HandicapClass 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 2nd 7/1
06 May 13 Bath Arch Walker (IRE)T: John Weymes Bathwick Tyres Swindon HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Firm · 14 ran 6th 14/1
06 May 13 Bath Firefly (GB)T: John Weymes Bathwick Tyres Devizes Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8f · Firm · 7 ran 6th 7/2
04 May 13 Doncaster Reconsider Baby (IRE)T: Mrs K Burke 32 Bonus At 32Red.com HandicapClass 5 · 6.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 3rd 16/1
04 May 13 Doncaster New Leyf (IRE)T: David Nicholls 32Red HandicapClass 3 · 6f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 9th 9/1
04 May 13 Thirsk Silver Forest (IRE)T: John Weymes Live totescoop6 Information At totepool.com Maiden StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 8th 50/1
03 May 13 Musselburgh London Citizen (USA)T: Mrs K Burke Weatherbys Private Banking HandicapClass 3 · 9f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 4th 5/2F
03 May 13 Musselburgh Reve De Nuit (USA)T: Mrs K Burke Weatherbys Bank HandicapClass 4 · 9f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 16/1
02 May 13 Redcar Baltic Fire (IRE)T: Mrs K Burke Buy Your Tickets On-Line At redcarracing.co.uk Maiden Auction StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 5th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Michael Metcalfe's strike rate?
Michael Metcalfe has won 62 of 703 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael Metcalfe do best at?
Windsor by strike rate: 5 wins from 31 rides (16.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Michael Metcalfe ride most for?
Mick Channon, with 153 rides since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (9.2%).
What is Michael Metcalfe's Fair A/E?
0.94, from 699 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).