What is James Toller's strike rate?

James Toller has won 52 of 570 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does James Toller do best at?

Yarmouth by strike rate: 10 wins from 61 runners (16.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for James Toller?

Kirsty Milczarek, with 153 runners since 2008 — 27% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (10.5%).

What is James Toller's Fair A/E?

1.05, from 564 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

James Toller

570 runners in the lifetime window · 71 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Oct 2015 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

52–570

Wins / Runs

9.1%

Strike rate

n=570

148 (26%)

Placed

1.05

Fair A/E

n=564 · 0.91 incl. margin

−25.67

£1 level stake

n=569 at SP · −4.5%

£467k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

6.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 70 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.05).

Deterministic profile computed from 570 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired May–Jul Kirsty Milczarek: 10.5% from 153 Claiming riders: 9.4%

The read

The record is strongest at Yarmouth (16.4%, n=61) and Wolverhampton (AW) (13%, n=54) — all clear of the yard's 9.1% baseline. It is weakest at Kempton (AW) (4.5% over 89 runners) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 4.7% (n=43, Fair A/E 0.37). Kirsty Milczarek rode 27% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.5%, A/E 1.30) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record read poorly in Class 1 — 4.7% over 43 runners, 4.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m2f – 1m4f: Fair A/E 0.64 across 114 runners (5.3% strike, −14.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the 32Red Festival Stakes at Goodwood (May 2013, £22,684). The stable star of the record was Doric Lady (GB) — 6 wins from 28 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired May–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.9%−0.2

n=90 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −35.67

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−9.1

n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

Debutants · first career start

5.5%−3.6

n=55 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +10.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

6.5%−2.6

n=31 · A/E 1.17 · £1 +29.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−9.1

n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

When favourite

22.2%

n=27 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −10.25

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.4%+0.3

n=64 · A/E 1.05 · £1 +13.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.7%−4.4

n=43 · A/E 0.37 · £1 −10.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Yarmouth 16.4% vs 9.1% · n=61

At Kempton (AW) 4.5% vs 9.1% · n=89

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 5.3% vs 9.1% · n=114

In Class 1 4.7% vs 9.1% · n=43

In Group / Graded races 4.7% vs 9.1% · n=43

At Wolverhampton (AW) 13% vs 9.1% · n=54

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 247 21 8.5% +14.92

Good to Firm 128 12 9.4% −42.67

Good 88 6 6.8% −18.75

Good to Soft 57 7 12.3% +25.83

Soft 36 4 11.1% +3.00

Firm 9 1 11.1% −4.00

Heavy 5 1 20% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Lingfield 96 10 10.4% +53.50

Kempton (AW) 89 4 4.5% −63.70

Yarmouth 61 10 16.4% +13.25

Newmarket 54 4 7.4% −4.67

Wolverhampton (AW) 54 7 13% +33.12

Newmarket 48 3 6.3% −35.75

Newbury 23 2 8.7% −9.50

Windsor 19 1 5.3% −10.50

Sandown 16 3 18.8% +8.00

Brighton 16 2 12.5% −2.17

Ascot 16 0 0% −16.00

Leicester 15 3 20% +27.00

Goodwood 10 1 10% +16.00

Warwick 8 0 0% −8.00

Doncaster 8 2 25% +10.75

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 213 19 8.9% +6.70

Class 4 131 14 10.7% −10.45

Class 6 103 11 10.7% +25.25

Class 1 43 2 4.7% −10.00

Class 3 43 4 9.3% −12.50

Class 2 37 2 5.4% −24.67

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 36 8 22.2% 0.82 −10.50

2nd–3rd fav 118 16 13.6% 0.90 −27.17

4th–6th fav 179 20 11.2% 1.48 +74.00

7th+ in betting 236 7 3% 0.93 −62.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Loving Spirit (GB)then Richard Fahey 30 2 10 27 Oct 14

Doric Lady (GB) 25 6 8 6 Nov 10

Rosedale (GB) 24 4 6 17 Oct 11

Sohar (GB) 20 1 8 31 Oct 14

Dukes Art (GB)then David Pipe 20 3 6 25 Sep 11

Bassinet (USA)from D Smaga 20 2 9 9 Oct 09

Twice Bitten (GB) 19 2 5 26 Oct 12

Saigon (GB) 17 2 6 13 Oct 12

Saturation Point (GB) 16 2 4 20 Oct 15

Rewarded (GB) 15 4 6 25 Sep 13

Chaussini (GB) 15 1 3 12 Oct 11

Sunny Hollow (GB) 14 0 3 25 Oct 13

The 60 most-raced of 71 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 57 had their first archived run for this yard.

21 have since run for another yard, most often for David Pipe (2) and Giles Bravery (2); 39 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

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A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderKirsty Milczarek

27% of all rides
10.5% SR · A/E 1.30

RiderRWSR£1

Kirsty Milczarek 153 16 10.5% +35.58

Robert Havlin 85 10 11.8% +18.87

Robert Tart 45 5 11.1% −6.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£824k

Prize money

2005

Best season · 17 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Rewarded (GB) — 32Red Festival Stakes (Listed) Goodwood · May 2013 · Listed

£22,684

Arm Candy (IRE) — Bet365 Handicap Newmarket · Oct 2006 · Class 2

£18,696

Loving Spirit (GB) — Squirrel Handicap (Rnd) Leicester · Oct 2014 · Class 2

£15,753

Notable horses

Doric Lady (GB) Perfect Treasure (IRE) Rosedale (GB) Perfect Story (IRE) Rewarded (GB) Barney McGrew (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Beat Hollow (GB) 8.2% · 4–49

Progeny have won 11.3% of 6,028 runs since 2008 (412 horses).

Royal Applause (GB) 10% · 4–40

Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.

Azamour (IRE) 5.4% · 2–37

Progeny have won 13.1% of 4,328 runs since 2008 (351 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 8.8% from 215.

Bachelor Duke (USA) 11.1% · 3–27

Progeny have won 7.8% of 1,605 runs since 2008 (109 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.2% from 143.

Kyllachy (GB) 24% · 6–25

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Pastoral Pursuits (GB) 16.7% · 4–24

Progeny have won 9.5% of 7,215 runs since 2008 (437 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.4% from 109. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1.5% from 133.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,007 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,007 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 20 October 2015.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

20 Oct 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Saturation Point (GB)J: Tom Queally Post Your Winners at bookies.com HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 10/1

20 Oct 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Demonstration (IRE)J: Martin Lane Proludic Play & Sports Maiden StakesClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 25/1

14 Oct 15 Kempton (AW) Sole Bay Star (GB)J: Martin Lane 32Red.com Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10)Class 5 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 11th 14/1

08 Oct 15 Chelmsford City (AW) Saturation Point (GB)J: George Baker Everest Fiftieth Birthday HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 10/1

25 Sep 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Copper Cavalier (GB)J: Martin Lane Download The Ladbrokes App HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 5/1

23 Sep 15 Kempton (AW) Lulworth (IRE)J: Martin Lane 32Red On The App Store Maiden Stakes (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 9 ran 9th 25/1

22 Sep 15 Lingfield (AW) Zamsina (GB)J: Tom Queally titanbet.co.uk Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 10f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 33/1

17 Sep 15 Chelmsford City (AW) Take Note (IRE)J: Robert Havlin Win A Football Fortune With Scoop6Soccer HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 10/1

15 Sep 15 Yarmouth Sole Bay Star (GB)J: Martin Lane British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10)Class 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 7th 50/1

14 Sep 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Copper Cavalier (GB)J: Pat Cosgrave Wolverhampton Tips At bookies.com Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 6/1

28 Aug 15 Newmarket Demonstration (IRE)J: Pat Cosgrave Farm & Stable Celebrating 40 Years Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 9th 20/1

20 Aug 15 Lingfield (AW) Take Note (IRE)J: Tom Queally Bhest Racing To School Handicap (AW)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 25/1

15 Aug 15 Doncaster Demonstration (IRE)J: George Buckell Betfred 'Keep It Fun' HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 10th 14/1

14 Aug 15 Newbury Zamsina (GB)J: Ted Durcan Al Basti Equiworld EBF Stallions Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 10f · Soft · 11 ran 10th 100/1

06 Aug 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Take Note (IRE)J: Martin Lane Award Winning Fine Dining At Horizons HandicapClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 20/1

29 Jul 15 Leicester Wisewit (GB)J: Jamie Spencer Shangton Handicap (Rnd)Class 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 9th 16/1

18 Jul 15 Newbury Demonstration (IRE)J: Martin Lane John Hills Maiden StakesClass 4 · 10f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 2nd 66/1

13 Jul 15 Windsor Wisewit (GB)J: George Buckell Love Travel, Love Trailfinders Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 6th 14/1

08 Jul 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Saturation Point (GB)J: Hayley Turner Meetings And Events At Wolverhampton Racecourse Fillies' HandicapClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 16/1

29 Jun 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Wisewit (GB)J: Martin Lane Wolverhampton Tips At bookies.com HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 11/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is James Toller's strike rate?: James Toller has won 52 of 570 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does James Toller do best at?: Yarmouth by strike rate: 10 wins from 61 runners (16.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for James Toller?: Kirsty Milczarek, with 153 runners since 2008 — 27% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (10.5%).
What is James Toller's Fair A/E?: 1.05, from 564 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.