Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rides around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.93).
Deterministic profile computed from 135 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 27 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFirst rides: 9%Claiming: 9.4%
The read
Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 3.6% (n=55, Fair A/E 0.64). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 2.9% over 34 rides, 6pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.9% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
9%+0.1
n=89 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −16.84
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
30%+21.1
n=10 · A/E 1.61 · £1 +7.41
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
5.7%−3.2
n=35 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −27.75
When favourite
25%
n=12 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −4.93
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
9.4%+0.5
n=128 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −8.93
Big fields · 14+ runners
3.6%−5.3
n=55 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −8.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.9
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Soft going2.9% vs 8.9% · n=34
With debutants3% vs 8.9% · n=33
Over 2m1f – 2m4f5.4% vs 8.9% · n=37
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
NH Flat58610.3%−1.59
Chase39410.3%+15.41
Hurdle2827.1%−19.75
Flat1000%−10.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good5958.5%+14.16
Soft3412.9%−24.00
Good to Soft27311.1%−6.59
Heavy13323.1%+2.50
Good to Firm200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown21419%+57.50
Kilbeggan1100%−11.00
Wexford1100%−11.00
Thurles7114.3%−3.00
Killarney600%−6.00
Cork500%−5.00
Listowel5120%−3.09
Downpatrick500%−5.00
Galway (IRE)500%−5.00
Leopardstown400%−4.00
Tramore400%−4.00
Gowran Park4125%+2.00
Clonmel400%−4.00
Bellewstown400%−4.00
Fairyhouse300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 48225%−1.09
Class 1300%−3.00
Class 53133.3%+0.25
Class 22150%+11.00
Class 3200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite13323.1%0.83−5.93
2nd–3rd fav29413.8%0.77−8.50
4th–6th fav3625.6%0.76−20.50
7th+ in betting5735.3%2.07+19.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m5559.1%−4.59
2m1f – 2m4f3725.4%−26.00
2m5f – 3m2328.7%−15.59
Over 3m19315.8%+31.25
1m2f – 1m4f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221100%−11.00
20233133.3%+31.00
20241500%−15.00
202539410.3%−15.34
202667710.4%−5.59
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps39410.3%−15.84
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners3712.7%−3.00
11-13 runners3525.7%−0.50
8-10 runners25312%−9.84
17+ runners1815.6%−5.00
5-7 runners17423.5%+3.50
2-4 runners3133.3%−1.09
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 90 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
1 from 1
Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
03317111460005000
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 10% of 3,475 runs since 2008 (414 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 389. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 2.4% from 293. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.2% from 355.
Progeny have won 12.1% of 3,507 runs since 2008 (457 horses).
Gold Well (GB)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 12.2% of 5,648 runs since 2008 (363 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 27 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 143 · newest first
The latest 50 of 143 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 March 2020 to 14 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr B T Stone's strike rate?
Mr B T Stone has won 12 of 135 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.9% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Mr B T Stone in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mr B T Stone's Fair A/E?
0.93, from 135 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr B T Stone·SR 8.9%·A/E 0.93
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