Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.4% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
11.5%+2.1
n=26 · A/E 1.37 · £1 −13.60
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−9.4
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
10%+0.6
n=10 · A/E 1.32 · £1 −5.40
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−9.4
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft8337.5%+4.40
Standard (AW)800%−8.00
Good700%−7.00
Soft700%−7.00
Heavy200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Saint-Cloud8225%+0.30
Chantilly (FR)7114.3%−2.90
Deauville (FR)600%−6.00
Dieppe (FR)200%−2.00
Strasbourg (FR)200%−2.00
Lyon-La Soie (FR)200%−2.00
Longchamp (FR)200%−2.00
Vittel (FR)200%−2.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4500%−5.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite200%0.00−2.00
2nd–3rd fav9333.3%2.19+3.40
4th–6th fav700%0.00−7.00
7th+ in betting1400%0.00−14.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f1200%−12.00
1m – 1m1f1218.3%−7.90
1m5f – 2m3266.7%+5.30
6f – 7f300%−3.00
2m1f – 2m4f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20226116.7%−2.30
20238225%+0.70
2024300%−3.00
2025400%−4.00
20261100%−11.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps800%−8.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners1715.9%−12.90
8-10 runners8112.5%−3.40
14-16 runners300%−3.00
5-7 runners3133.3%+0.70
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 26 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
···0005000000
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 11.4% of 1,610 runs since 2008 (130 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.4% from 631. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.9% from 162. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 8.3% from 181.
Progeny have won 11.7% of 2,171 runs since 2017 (279 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 317. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 7.9% from 191.
Progeny have won 15.2% of 2,055 runs since 2021 (331 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 10.8% from 378. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 20.1% from 264. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.9% from 204.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 63 · newest first
The latest 50 of 63 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 October 2011 to 11 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr Kevin Braye's strike rate?
Mr Kevin Braye has won 3 of 32 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.4% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Mr Kevin Braye in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mr Kevin Braye's Fair A/E?
1.05, from 32 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr Kevin Braye·SR 9.4%·A/E 1.05
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