Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.3% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
10%+1.7
n=10 · A/E 1.82 · £1 +8.20
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−8.3
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−8.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft5120%+13.20
Good to Soft400%−4.00
Standard (AW)200%−2.00
Good100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Saint-Cloud (FR)400%−4.00
Chantilly (FR)3133.3%+15.20
Deauville (FR)200%−2.00
Longchamp (FR)100%−1.00
Craon (FR)100%−1.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav300%0.00−3.00
4th–6th fav100%0.00−1.00
7th+ in betting8112.5%2.82+10.20
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f500%−5.00
1m5f – 2m300%−3.00
6f – 7f3133.3%+15.20
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222150%+16.20
2023200%−2.00
2024300%−3.00
2025200%−2.00
2026300%−3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps500%−5.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners5120%+13.20
8-10 runners500%−5.00
17+ runners100%−1.00
5-7 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 10 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Noordhout (FR) — Prix Aly Khan - Trophee Studio Harcourt (Conditions) (4yo+) (Gentleman Amateur Riders) (Turf) Chantilly (FR) · Jun 2022
£9,664
Dalilar (USA) — Prix du Conseil General des Yvelines (Claimer) (4yo+) (Gentlemen Riders) (Turf) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · Jul 2014
£7,917
Speedy Crown (FR) — Prix Du Conseil General Des Yvelines (Claimer) (4yo+) (Gentlemen Riders) (Turf) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · Jun 2014
Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,112 runs since 2020 (248 horses). Strongest on Good going: 12.6% from 246. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15% from 200.
Progeny have won 11.7% of 1,761 runs since 2019 (294 horses). Strongest on Good going: 15.4% from 267. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 402. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.5% from 236. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.7% from 492.
Oasis Dream (GB)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 11.8% of 18,048 runs since 2008 (1,511 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 485. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 792.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 73 · newest first
The latest 50 of 73 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 23 October 2006 to 5 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr Thibault Marlin's strike rate?
Mr Thibault Marlin has won 1 of 12 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.3% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. A small sample — fewer than 30 rides, so read the count before the percentage.
Mr Thibault Marlin·SR 8.3%·A/E 1.16
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