What is Paul Pickard's strike rate?

Paul Pickard has won 104 of 1,359 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.7% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Pickard do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 20 wins from 171 rides (11.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Paul Pickard ride most for?

Brian Ellison, with 317 rides since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 33 (10.4%).

What is Paul Pickard's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 1,349 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Paul Pickard

1,359 rides in the lifetime window · 590 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Aug 2015 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

104–1,359

Wins / Runs

7.7%

Strike rate

n=1,359

301 (22%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=1,349 · 0.86 incl. margin

−321.54

£1 level stake

n=1,359 at SP · −23.7%

£713k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

2.6%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 170 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (102 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,359 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 31.9% when favourite Brian Ellison: 10.4% from 317 LTO winners: 16.7% Rode the favourite in 5% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.7% (n=102, Fair A/E 1.10), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1% (n=196, Fair A/E 0.20). Brian Ellison supplied 23% of the rides and edges the rider's average (10.4% vs 7.7%, A/E 1.07) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well over 1m5f – 2m (14%, n=107). The record read poorly off a 61-180-day break — 1% over 99 rides, 6.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.20 across 97 rides (1% strike, −88.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. The standout partner of the record was It's A Mans World (GB) — 6 wins from 20 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.7% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.8%−0.9

n=585 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −211.00

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

16.7%+9.0

n=102 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −9.07

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

1%−6.7

n=196 · A/E 0.20 · £1 −178.50

When favourite

31.9%

n=72 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −2.12

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

7.7%+0.0

n=1,113 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −262.45

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.6%−2.1

n=248 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −12.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.7

n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Bill Ratcliffe 23.1% vs 7.7% · n=39

On last-time-out winners 16.7% vs 7.7% · n=102

With debutants 0% vs 7.7% · n=57

Off a 61-180-day break 1% vs 7.7% · n=99

Off a break of 180+ days 1% vs 7.7% · n=97

Over 1m5f – 2m 14% vs 7.7% · n=107

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,358 104 7.7% −320.54

Hurdle 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good to Firm 399 35 8.8% −92.46

Standard (AW) 337 25 7.4% −132.33

Good 305 22 7.2% −41.37

Good to Soft 142 9 6.3% −28.50

Soft 133 10 7.5% −4.38

Firm 25 1 4% −20.50

Heavy 18 2 11.1% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 171 20 11.7% −2.83

Wolverhampton (AW) 135 4 3% −107.50

Newcastle 111 6 5.4% −53.87

Catterick 106 11 10.4% +26.00

Beverley 98 6 6.1% −54.25

Redcar 95 6 6.3% +30.00

Thirsk 83 9 10.8% +42.00

Musselburgh 79 8 10.1% −43.67

Doncaster 55 2 3.6% −41.50

Ripon 52 6 11.5% −14.50

Carlisle 51 3 5.9% −15.50

Pontefract 50 1 2% −46.25

Hamilton 49 3 6.1% −30.00

York 37 4 10.8% +48.00

Ayr 30 2 6.7% −11.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 520 48 9.2% +0.00

Class 5 487 27 5.5% −305.04

Class 4 235 24 10.2% +24.00

Class 3 52 1 1.9% −48.50

Class 2 49 4 8.2% +24.00

Class 7 9 0 0% −9.00

Class 1 7 0 0% −7.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 90 27 30% 1.23 −2.79

2nd–3rd fav 174 25 14.4% 0.96 −23.25

4th–6th fav 441 34 7.7% 1.00 −81.50

7th+ in betting 654 18 2.8% 0.88 −214.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Miss Ferney (GB) 24 5 9 27 Aug 12

Drumpellier (IRE) 21 2 5 2 Nov 11

It's A Mans World (GB) 20 6 7 22 Aug 14

Colorus (IRE) 19 5 8 29 May 10

Tillys Tale (GB) 17 1 6 30 Aug 10

Ingleby Star (IRE) 16 2 5 16 Sep 13

Spiders Star (GB) 16 3 6 17 Oct 11

Highland Warrior (GB) 16 3 8 1 Apr 11

Flowing Cape (IRE) 14 2 3 2 Sep 11

Wiseman's Diamond (USA) 13 1 5 16 Sep 10

Rub of The Relic (IRE) 13 1 3 19 Jul 10

Handsinthemist (IRE) 12 2 4 26 Feb 10

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 590 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

117761096108643

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardBrian Ellison

23% of all rides
10.4% SR · A/E 1.07

TrainerRWSR£1

Brian Ellison 317 33 10.4% −35.62

Paul Midgley 276 23 8.3% +3.13

Reg Hollinshead 65 4 6.2% −18.00

Simon West 41 3 7.3% −23.25

Alan Kirtley 40 5 12.5% +54.75

Tracy Waggott 40 1 2.5% −21.00

Bill Ratcliffe 39 9 23.1% +13.12

Alan Brown 37 3 8.1% −14.75

Ian McInnes 35 2 5.7% −15.00

Mark Brisbourne 30 3 10% −10.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

104

Archived wins

£716k

Prize money

2009

Best season · 36 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Tominator (GB) — John Smith's Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Newcastle · Jun 2011 · Class 2

£92,475

Balty Boys (IRE) — 32RedSport.com Handicap Newmarket · Jul 2014 · Class 2

£28,013

Racy (GB) — SIS Live Handicap Ascot · Jul 2014 · Class 2

£28,013

Notable horses

It's A Mans World (GB) Miss Ferney (GB) Colorus (IRE) Highland Warrior (GB) Spiders Star (GB) Drumpellier (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Cayman Kai (IRE) 19% · 8–42

Progeny have won 7.9% of 317 runs since 2008 (22 horses).

Kyllachy (GB) 24% · 6–25

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Cape Cross (IRE) 17.4% · 4–23

Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.

Lucky Story (USA) 4.3% · 1–23

Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,554 runs since 2008 (162 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14% from 351. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.5% from 451.

Whipper (USA) 17.4% · 4–23

Progeny have won 9.8% of 4,602 runs since 2009 (397 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.6% from 516. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.6% from 1,128.

Rakti (GB) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 8.7% of 1,054 runs since 2009 (64 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 12.1% from 214. Weakest on Soft going: 5.2% from 192. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 13.3% from 218.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,427 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,427 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 May 2005 to 10 August 2015.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

10 Aug 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Quina Brook (IRE)T: Ronald Thompson British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 66/1

06 Aug 15 Newcastle Farmtruck (IRE)T: Ronald Thompson Bet365 Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 12th 25/1

01 Aug 15 Hamilton Good Boy Alex (GB)T: Alan Berry Superseal Open Maiden StakesClass 5 · 6f · Soft · 8 ran 8th 66/1

01 Aug 15 Hamilton Porcupine Creek (IRE)T: Ronald Thompson Highland Spring Water Nursery (Qualifier For The 20,000 Highland Spring Water Hamilton Park 2YO Series Final)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 10/1

22 Jul 15 Lingfield (AW) Lilly Bonbon (IRE)T: Ronald Thompson Otterbox Protection For What's Next Claiming StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 6 ran 3rd 8/1

21 Jul 15 Chelmsford City (AW) Sailors Warn (IRE)T: Ronald Thompson Lookers Land Rover Of Bishop's Stortford HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 33/1

18 Jul 15 Newbury Powerallied (IRE)T: Richard Fahey Weatherbys Super Sprint (Plus10)Class 2 · 5f · Good To Firm · 22 ran 18th 25/1

10 Jul 15 York Murdanova (IRE)T: Ronald Thompson Cakemark EBF Stallions Maiden Stakes (Plus10)Class 3 · 5.5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 100/1

08 Jul 15 Kempton (AW) Quina Brook (IRE)T: Ronald Thompson 32Red/Longines Irish Champions Weekend EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus10)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 50/1

26 Jun 15 Wolverhampton (AW) Rock Charm (GB)T: Ronald Thompson Follow Us On Twitter At WolvesRaces Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 16/1

25 Jun 15 Newcastle Porcupine Creek (IRE)T: Ronald Thompson Betfred TV Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 7th 22/1

15 Jun 15 Nottingham Porcupine Creek (IRE)T: Ronald Thompson Jeff Whitefoot 'Shredall' Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 25/1

10 Jun 15 Haydock Quina Brook (IRE)T: Ronald Thompson Longines Irish Champions Weekend EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Plus10)Class 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 11th 25/1

06 Jun 15 Newcastle Rock Charm (GB)T: Ronald Thompson freebets.org For The Latest Free Bets HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 12th 33/1

06 Jun 15 Newcastle Porcupine Creek (IRE)T: Ronald Thompson Get Horse Racing Odds At bookies.com EBF Maiden StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 6th 22/1

05 Jun 15 Catterick Lord Rob (GB)T: David Thompson Racinguk.com Maiden StakesClass 5 · 12f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 12th 250/1

02 Jun 15 Ripon Johnny Cavagin (GB)T: Ronald Thompson Weatherbys Hamilton HandicapClass 3 · 8f · Soft · 10 ran 6th 14/1

31 May 15 Nottingham El Massivo (IRE)T: Brian Ellison Most Reliable Bet DG Taxis HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 2nd 8/1

09 May 15 Thirsk Rock On Bollinski (GB)T: Brian Ellison Gt Group HandicapClass 4 · 12f · Soft · 11 ran 8th 14/1

05 May 15 Catterick El Massivo (IRE)T: Brian Ellison Go Racing In Yorkshire HandicapClass 6 · 16f · Soft · 11 ran 5th 9/2C

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Pickard's strike rate?: Paul Pickard has won 104 of 1,359 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.7% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Pickard do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 20 wins from 171 rides (11.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Paul Pickard ride most for?: Brian Ellison, with 317 rides since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 33 (10.4%).
What is Paul Pickard's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 1,349 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.