What is Tom Midgley's strike rate?

Tom Midgley has won 67 of 862 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tom Midgley do best at?

Carlisle by strike rate: 6 wins from 34 rides (17.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Tom Midgley ride most for?

Mark Walford, with 151 rides since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (11.9%).

Is Tom Midgley in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Tom Midgley's Fair A/E?

0.92, from 860 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Tom Midgley

862 rides in the lifetime window · 410 individual horses

As at 15 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 96% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

67–862

Wins / Runs

7.8%

Strike rate

n=862

191 (22%)

Placed

0.92

Fair A/E

n=860 · 0.79 incl. margin

−374.27

£1 level stake

n=862 at SP · −43.4%

£652k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

4.8%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 50 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.92). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (67 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 862 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Apr–Jun 33.3% when favourite Mark Walford: 11.9% from 151 LTO winners: 19.4% Claiming: 7.9% Rides the favourite in 6% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Carlisle (17.6%, n=34), clear of the rider's 7.8% baseline. It is weakest at Wetherby (1.4% over 71 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 19.4% (n=67, Fair A/E 1.00), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3.3% (n=180, Fair A/E 0.54). The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 3.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −57.75 to a £1 stake over 105 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Mark Walford supplies 18% of the rides and edges the rider's average (11.9% vs 7.8%, A/E 1.19) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. Seasonally, the rider fires Apr–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.1%−1.7

n=410 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −205.29

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

19.4%+11.6

n=67 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −19.83

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

3.3%−4.5

n=180 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −148.75

When favourite

33.3%

n=48 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −5.11

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

7.9%+0.1

n=748 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −302.82

Big fields · 14+ runners

3.8%−4.0

n=105 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −57.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.8

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 19.4% vs 7.8% · n=67

With C&D winners 17.8% vs 7.8% · n=101

With Sam England 15.3% vs 7.8% · n=111

At Carlisle 17.6% vs 7.8% · n=34

At Wetherby 1.4% vs 7.8% · n=71

With Sue Smith 1.8% vs 7.8% · n=55

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 627 45 7.2% −313.38

Chase 129 15 11.6% −42.39

NH Flat 75 5 6.7% −8.00

Flat 31 2 6.5% −10.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 341 34 10% −121.58

Good to Soft 253 13 5.1% −108.79

Soft 191 18 9.4% −72.15

Heavy 51 1 2% −47.25

Standard (AW) 15 1 6.7% −13.50

Good to Firm 11 0 0% −11.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Sedgefield 104 8 7.7% −34.04

Newcastle 98 10 10.2% −23.25

Hexham 93 11 11.8% −20.88

Market Rasen 83 7 8.4% −32.25

Catterick 76 6 7.9% −15.00

Wetherby 71 1 1.4% −65.50

Doncaster 37 1 2.7% −32.67

Southwell 35 2 5.7% −2.50

Kelso 35 1 2.9% −24.00

Carlisle 34 6 17.6% +2.00

Musselburgh 25 1 4% −22.00

Ayr 24 1 4.2% −21.00

Cartmel 22 0 0% −22.00

Perth 21 3 14.3% −3.00

Uttoxeter 21 0 0% −21.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 395 35 8.9% −124.79

Class 4 360 21 5.8% −217.51

Class 3 73 8 11% −20.47

Class 6 16 1 6.3% −3.00

Class 2 15 2 13.3% −5.50

Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 58 18 31% 1.11 −7.90

2nd–3rd fav 162 28 17.3% 1.01 −11.87

4th–6th fav 287 13 4.5% 0.65 −169.50

7th+ in betting 355 8 2.3% 0.90 −185.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.5% completed · 756 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 129 82.2% 4 4 15 0 0

Hurdle 627 85% 12 6 75 0 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Hajey (GB) 21 4 8 28 Dec 25

Moonlight Glory (IRE) 19 4 6 18 Nov 24

Bestiarius (IRE) 13 1 4 10 Mar 23

Teescomponents Lad (GB) 12 1 6 12 Oct 22

Down Time (USA) 10 0 0 3 Aug 18

Giovanni Change (FR) 9 2 4 26 May 25

Wind Your Neck In (IRE) 8 0 1 1 Feb 26

Tom Creen (IRE) 8 2 4 26 Dec 25

Aire Spray (IRE) 8 2 4 13 Feb 25

A Shining Moon (IRE) 8 0 3 10 May 24

Teescomponentsfly (GB) 7 1 2 9 Jun 23

Guidedbythescience (IRE) 7 0 0 30 Sep 22

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 410 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 5

Only 5 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1253161017793837

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardMark Walford

18% of all rides
11.9% SR · A/E 1.19

TrainerRWSR£1

Mark Walford 151 18 11.9% −51.59

Sam England 111 17 15.3% −15.51

Gillian Boanas 89 4 4.5% −61.17

Sue Smith 55 1 1.8% −45.50

Paul Midgley 44 1 2.3% −36.50

Chris Grant 41 2 4.9% −26.50

Tracy Waggott 30 4 13.3% +14.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

Archived wins

£652k

Prize money

2022

Best season · 20 wins

Tommy's Oscar (IRE) — Betway Hogmaneigh Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Musselburgh · Jan 2022 · Class 2

£15,609

Teescomponents Lad (GB) — Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Market Rasen · Nov 2021 · Class 2

£10,892

Giovanni Change (FR) — Victor Lucas Memorial Handicap Hurdle Market Rasen · May 2023 · Class 3

£10,562

Notable horses

Hajey (GB) Moonlight Glory (IRE) Giovanni Change (FR) Tom Creen (IRE) Aire Spray (IRE) Event Of Sivola (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Fame And Glory (GB) 13.8% · 4–29

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,221 runs since 2016 (503 horses).

Shirocco (GER) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 11.1% of 9,213 runs since 2010 (928 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.

Westerner (GB) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,874 runs since 2009 (945 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Yeats (IRE) 13% · 3–23

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,863 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 821.

Midnight Legend (GB) 14.3% · 3–21

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,312 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Raven's Pass (USA) 19% · 4–21

Progeny have won 11.2% of 4,947 runs since 2012 (454 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 862 · newest first

The latest 50 of 862 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 16 October 2017 to 14 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

14 Nov 26 Wetherby Fine Thing (GB)T: Sam England Boyle Sports Back Yourself Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 21.5f · Good · 6 ran 6th 66/1

13 Nov 26 Sedgefield Jeteye (IRE)T: Sam England Sedgefield Christmas Jumper Raceday 22nd December Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Brindisi Breeze Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 27f · Good · 5 ran 1st 15/8

12 Nov 26 Market Rasen Zains Hope (IRE)T: Nick Kent PricedUp Now With Best Odds 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 6th 40/1

07 Nov 26 Uttoxeter Lou Des Bordes (FR)T: Nick Kent Matchbook Signup Get 20% Back On Losses Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 8th 300/1

06 Nov 26 Hexham Forbidden Cargo (FR)T: Mark Walford carpetgallop.co.uk Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 9 ran PU 100/1

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Northerly (GB)T: Nick Kent Bob Derry 50 Years At Uttoxeter National Hunt Flat Race (conditional And Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 7th 16/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Buzz Iceclear (IRE)T: Mark Walford Spooktacular Family Day Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23f · Good · 9 ran 6th 12/1

25 Oct 26 Market Rasen Character Testing (GB)T: Mark Walford £27 Race & Roast Package Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 2nd 7/2

20 Oct 26 Hexham Jedhi Knight (GB)T: Paul Midgley Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 9th 50/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Punxsutawney Phil (IRE)T: Mark Walford Dragonbet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran PU 50/1

14 Sep 26 Sedgefield Bannister (FR)T: Nick Kent Paxtons No1 Caseih Dealer Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 7th 50/1

18 Jul 26 Market Rasen Glory And Honour (IRE)T: Sam England Watch Live Racing At Betway Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20.5f · Good · 12 ran 7th 40/1

05 Jul 26 Market Rasen Captain Connor (FR)T: Mark Walford Tom Halliday Memorial Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran 7th 28/1

30 Jun 26 Stratford Newport (GB)T: Iain Jardine Davisons Law Moving You Forward Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 4th 10/3

21 Jun 26 Hexham Newport (GB)T: Iain Jardine L & R Pest Control Services Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 1st 9/2

13 Jun 26 Hexham Newport (GB)T: Iain Jardine Andy Calvert Celebration Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 18/1

28 May 26 Market Rasen Made All (GB)T: Sam England Half Year Annual Badges On Sale Now Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 9/4

25 May 26 Cartmel Suitably Surprised (IRE)T: Sam England Johnny & Tony Connell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 22f · Good · 10 ran PU 28/1

24 May 26 Kelso Newport (GB)T: Iain Jardine J.A. Wilson Contractors Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21f · Good · 12 ran 11th 9/2

19 May 26 Hexham Jeteye (IRE)T: Sam England Tynedale Agricultural Society Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 11 ran 1st 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 25 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 13 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tom Midgley's strike rate?: Tom Midgley has won 67 of 862 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tom Midgley do best at?: Carlisle by strike rate: 6 wins from 34 rides (17.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Tom Midgley ride most for?: Mark Walford, with 151 rides since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 18 (11.9%).
Is Tom Midgley in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 5 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Tom Midgley's Fair A/E?: 0.92, from 860 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.