What is Tom Midgley's strike rate?

Tom Midgley has won 49 of 670 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tom Midgley do best at?

Hexham by strike rate: 9 wins from 78 rides (11.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Tom Midgley ride most for?

Mark Walford, with 146 rides since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (11.6%).

Is Tom Midgley in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Tom Midgley's Fair A/E?

0.88, from 670 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Tom Midgley

670 rides in the last 5 seasons · 300 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 5 days ago 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2022

49–670

Wins / Runs

7.3%

Strike rate

n=670

137 (20%)

Placed

0.88

Fair A/E

n=670 · 0.76 incl. margin

−323.18

£1 level stake

n=670 at SP · −48.2%

£518k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.4%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 130 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.88). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (49 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 670 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Apr–Jun 29.4% when favourite Mark Walford: 11.6% from 146 LTO winners: 16.3% Claiming: 7.5% Rides the favourite in 5% of races

The read

It is weakest at Wetherby (1.7% over 60 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.3% (n=49, Fair A/E 0.93), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2% (n=148, Fair A/E 0.36). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 4.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.77 and −198.79 to a £1 stake over 284 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Mark Walford supplies 22% of the rides and edges the rider's average (11.6% vs 7.3%, A/E 1.19) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 1.6% over 63 rides, 5.7pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the rider fires Apr–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.3% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

4.9%−2.4

n=284 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −198.79

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

16.3%+9.0

n=49 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −14.54

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

2%−5.3

n=148 · A/E 0.36 · £1 −124.25

When favourite

29.4%

n=34 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −5.14

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

7.5%+0.2

n=563 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −245.73

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.3%−3.0

n=70 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −56.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.3

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C&D winners 17.1% vs 7.3% · n=82

On last-time-out winners 16.3% vs 7.3% · n=49

With Sam England 14.6% vs 7.3% · n=82

With debutants 0% vs 7.3% · n=38

Off a break of 180+ days 1.6% vs 7.3% · n=63

At Wetherby 1.7% vs 7.3% · n=60

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 505 34 6.7% −244.29

Chase 116 14 12.1% −32.39

NH Flat 49 1 2% −46.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 262 24 9.2% −113.39

Good to Soft 198 11 5.6% −100.79

Soft 159 13 8.2% −61.75

Heavy 44 1 2.3% −40.25

Good to Firm 5 0 0% −5.00

Standard (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle 81 8 9.9% −24.75

Sedgefield 81 7 8.6% −13.92

Market Rasen 78 6 7.7% −33.75

Hexham 78 9 11.5% −11.88

Wetherby 60 1 1.7% −54.50

Catterick 60 5 8.3% −33.00

Doncaster 31 1 3.2% −26.67

Southwell 28 1 3.6% −21.50

Kelso 26 1 3.8% −15.00

Carlisle 22 3 13.6% −6.00

Cartmel 18 0 0% −18.00

Perth 17 2 11.8% −4.50

Musselburgh 16 1 6.3% −13.00

Ayr 15 0 0% −15.00

Uttoxeter 13 0 0% −13.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 300 24 8% −135.12

Class 4 297 17 5.7% −167.59

Class 3 60 7 11.7% −10.47

Class 2 10 1 10% −7.00

Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 42 12 28.6% 1.03 −5.93

2nd–3rd fav 123 21 17.1% 1.00 −2.25

4th–6th fav 234 12 5.1% 0.73 −124.00

7th+ in betting 271 4 1.5% 0.60 −191.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83.7% completed · 621 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 116 83.6% 3 4 12 0 0

Hurdle 505 83.8% 11 4 66 0 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Moonlight Glory (IRE) 19 4 6 18 Nov 24

Hajey (GB) 18 4 8 28 Dec 25

Bestiarius (IRE) 13 1 4 10 Mar 23

Giovanni Change (FR) 9 2 4 26 May 25

Wind Your Neck In (IRE) 8 0 1 1 Feb 26

Tom Creen (IRE) 8 2 4 26 Dec 25

Aire Spray (IRE) 8 2 4 13 Feb 25

A Shining Moon (IRE) 8 0 3 10 May 24

Teescomponentsfly (GB) 7 1 2 9 Jun 23

Teescomponents Lad (GB) 7 0 1 12 Oct 22

Guidedbythescience (IRE) 7 0 0 30 Sep 22

Newport (GB) 6 1 4 30 Jun 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 300 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 3

Only 3 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1263129186100717

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardMark Walford

22% of all rides
11.6% SR · A/E 1.19

TrainerRWSR£1

Mark Walford 146 17 11.6% −49.59

Sam England 82 12 14.6% +1.08

Gillian Boanas 79 3 3.8% −57.67

Sue Smith 55 1 1.8% −45.50

Chris Grant 41 2 4.9% −26.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

Archived wins

£648k

Prize money

2022

Best season · 20 wins

Tommy's Oscar (IRE) — Betway Hogmaneigh Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Musselburgh · Jan 2022 · Class 2

£15,609

Teescomponents Lad (GB) — Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Market Rasen · Nov 2021 · Class 2

£10,892

Giovanni Change (FR) — Victor Lucas Memorial Handicap Hurdle Market Rasen · May 2023 · Class 3

£10,562

Notable horses

Hajey (GB) Moonlight Glory (IRE) Giovanni Change (FR) Tom Creen (IRE) Aire Spray (IRE) Event Of Sivola (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Fame And Glory (GB) 14.8% · 4–27

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,211 runs since 2016 (504 horses).

Westerner (GB) 8.7% · 2–23

Progeny have won 12.1% of 11,853 runs since 2009 (943 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.

Yeats (IRE) 13.6% · 3–22

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,836 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Shirocco (GER) 5% · 1–20

Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,182 runs since 2010 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.

Mahler (GB) 11.1% · 2–18

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,871 runs since 2014 (786 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Raven's Pass (USA) 22.2% · 4–18

Progeny have won 11.2% of 4,940 runs since 2012 (453 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 857 · newest first

The latest 50 of 857 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 16 October 2017 to 30 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

30 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Northerly (GB)T: Nick Kent Bob Derry 50 Years At Uttoxeter National Hunt Flat Race (conditional And Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 7th 16/1

27 Oct 26 Bangor-on-Dee Buzz Iceclear (IRE)T: Mark Walford Spooktacular Family Day Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23f · Good · 9 ran 6th 12/1

25 Oct 26 Market Rasen Character Testing (GB)T: Mark Walford £27 Race & Roast Package Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 2nd 7/2

20 Oct 26 Hexham Jedhi Knight (GB)T: Paul Midgley Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Sea Pigeon Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 9th 50/1

10 Oct 26 Chepstow Punxsutawney Phil (IRE)T: Mark Walford Dragonbet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 17 ran PU 50/1

14 Sep 26 Sedgefield Bannister (FR)T: Nick Kent Paxtons No1 Caseih Dealer Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 7th 50/1

18 Jul 26 Market Rasen Glory And Honour (IRE)T: Sam England Watch Live Racing At Betway Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 20.5f · Good · 12 ran 7th 40/1

05 Jul 26 Market Rasen Captain Connor (FR)T: Mark Walford Tom Halliday Memorial Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 8 ran 7th 28/1

30 Jun 26 Stratford Newport (GB)T: Iain Jardine Davisons Law Moving You Forward Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 4th 10/3

21 Jun 26 Hexham Newport (GB)T: Iain Jardine L & R Pest Control Services Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 1st 9/2

13 Jun 26 Hexham Newport (GB)T: Iain Jardine Andy Calvert Celebration Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 18/1

28 May 26 Market Rasen Made All (GB)T: Sam England Half Year Annual Badges On Sale Now Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 9/4

25 May 26 Cartmel Suitably Surprised (IRE)T: Sam England Johnny & Tony Connell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 22f · Good · 10 ran PU 28/1

24 May 26 Kelso Newport (GB)T: Iain Jardine J.A. Wilson Contractors Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21f · Good · 12 ran 11th 9/2

19 May 26 Hexham Jeteye (IRE)T: Sam England Tynedale Agricultural Society Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 11 ran 1st 12/1

15 May 26 Aintree Theophilos (IRE)T: Paul Midgley Mental Health Awareness Week Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 10 ran PU 80/1

08 May 26 Market Rasen De Deli Counter (GB)T: Mark Walford Fiver Friday Raceday Friday 12th June Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 9/4F

08 May 26 Market Rasen Klapton Boy (FR)T: Nick Kent Lucas Machinery Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 9 ran 6th 22/1

20 Apr 26 Kelso Newport (GB)T: Iain Jardine Scottish Racing Academy Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 18f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 5/1

14 Apr 26 Market Rasen Nitty Gritty (IRE)T: Mark Walford CopyBet Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 25 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 30 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tom Midgley's strike rate?: Tom Midgley has won 49 of 670 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tom Midgley do best at?: Hexham by strike rate: 9 wins from 78 rides (11.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Tom Midgley ride most for?: Mark Walford, with 146 rides since 2022 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (11.6%).
Is Tom Midgley in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Tom Midgley's Fair A/E?: 0.88, from 670 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.