What is Willie McCarthy's strike rate?

Willie McCarthy has won 12 of 230 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.2% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

What is Willie McCarthy's Fair A/E?

0.87, from 230 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Willie McCarthy

230 rides in the lifetime window · 123 individual horses

As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Dec 2019 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

12–230

Wins / Runs

5.2%

Strike rate

n=230

44 (19%)

Placed

0.87

Fair A/E

n=230 · 0.73 incl. margin

−76.09

£1 level stake

n=230 at SP · −33.1%

£78,965

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 20 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.87). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 8% off breaks of two months or more (52 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 230 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 7.7%

The read

The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 4.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.78 and −94.00 to a £1 stake over 199 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. The rider also read well off a 61-180-day break (12.5%, n=32) and in Chase races (10.6%, n=66). The record read poorly on Good to Firm going — 0% over 42 rides, 5.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.46 across 133 rides (2.3% strike, −73.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.1%−0.1

n=98 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −20.00

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

27.3%+22.1

n=11 · A/E 1.58 · £1 +4.91

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7.7%+2.5

n=52 · A/E 1.70 · £1 +16.00

When favourite

14.3%

n=7 · A/E 0.42 · £1 −5.09

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

4.5%−0.7

n=199 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −94.00

Big fields · 14+ runners

4%−1.2

n=101 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −36.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−5.2

n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Tom George 13.3% vs 5.2% · n=30

Off a 61-180-day break 12.5% vs 5.2% · n=32

In Chase races 10.6% vs 5.2% · n=66

On Good to Firm going 0% vs 5.2% · n=42

In Hurdle races 2.3% vs 5.2% · n=133

With horses switching code 8.1% vs 5.2% · n=37

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 133 3 2.3% −73.00

Chase 66 7 10.6% +13.91

NH Flat 31 2 6.5% −17.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 82 5 6.1% −37.00

Good to Soft 48 3 6.3% −25.09

Good to Firm 42 0 0% −42.00

Soft 35 2 5.7% +0.00

Heavy 23 2 8.7% +28.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chepstow 28 1 3.6% −22.00

Uttoxeter 20 2 10% −1.00

Newton Abbot 17 1 5.9% −9.00

Exeter 16 0 0% −16.00

Towcester 15 1 6.7% +26.00

Wincanton 13 0 0% −13.00

Worcester 11 0 0% −11.00

Hereford 10 0 0% −10.00

Fontwell 9 0 0% −9.00

Plumpton 8 2 25% +6.91

Ludlow 8 0 0% −8.00

Leicester 8 1 12.5% +7.00

Warwick 7 0 0% −7.00

Huntingdon 7 0 0% −7.00

Southwell 7 1 14.3% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 119 5 4.2% −45.09

Class 5 71 2 2.8% −48.00

Class 6 17 2 11.8% −3.00

Class 3 15 3 20% +28.00

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 9 2 22.2% 0.74 −2.09

2nd–3rd fav 25 2 8% 0.58 −10.00

4th–6th fav 50 4 8% 1.13 −8.00

7th+ in betting 146 4 2.7% 0.97 −56.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

74.4% completed · 199 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 66 63.6% 2 5 17 0 0

Hurdle 133 79.7% 3 2 22 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Gumley Gale (GB) 9 1 2 6 Dec 08

Leprechaun's Gold (IRE) 8 0 3 12 Apr 09

Daraz Rose (IRE) 5 0 1 4 Oct 09

Albert Park (IRE) 5 0 0 17 May 09

Wishes Or Watches (IRE) 5 0 2 25 Apr 09

Chico Time (IRE) 5 0 0 27 Jan 09

Baron Blitzkrieg (GB) 5 0 2 20 May 08

Cava Bien (GB) 5 0 1 16 Mar 08

Vial De Kerdec (FR) 4 2 3 8 Oct 09

Lupita (IRE) 4 0 0 11 Aug 09

Daramoon (IRE) 4 0 1 31 Aug 08

Paddy's Tern (GB) 4 0 1 30 May 08

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 123 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

7431548700000

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardBernard Llewellyn

18% of all rides
7.3% SR · A/E 0.97

TrainerRWSR£1

Bernard Llewellyn 41 3 7.3% +14.00

Norma Twomey 35 1 2.9% −30.00

Tom George 30 4 13.3% +30.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£308k

Prize money

2007

Best season · 14 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Hazeljack (GB) — totesport.com Southern National Handicap Chase Fontwell · Apr 2006 · Class 3

£15,493

Chapel Cross (IRE) — Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Chase (0-109) Limerick · Feb 2006

£10,020

Ballyfoy (IRE) — Zenergi Handicap Chase Newbury · Jan 2008 · Class 3

£7,807

Notable horses

Julies Boy (IRE) Freeline Fury (GB) Gumley Gale (GB) Cava Bien (GB) Hazeljack (GB) Rosetown (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Presenting (GB) 0% · 0–11

Progeny have won 11% of 20,050 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Darazari (IRE) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 9.7% of 288 runs since 2008 (36 horses).

Greensmith (GB) 11.1% · 1–9

Progeny have won 4.2% of 48 runs since 2008 (5 horses).

Sir Harry Lewis (USA) 33.3% · 3–9

Progeny have won 11.8% of 2,425 runs since 2008 (190 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 306.

Spectrum (IRE) 0% · 0–8

Progeny have won 7.7% of 1,553 runs since 2008 (110 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 11.2% from 259.

Cloudings (IRE) 0% · 0–7

Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,885 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.6% from 410. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 815.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 576 · newest first

The latest 50 of 576 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 8 December 2019.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

08 Dec 19 Cork Amour Libranno (FR)T: Eugene M O'Sullivan Charleville Cheese Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 24 ran 15th 150/1

16 May 10 Limerick Proud As Punch (IRE)T: Eugene M O'Sullivan Twilight Evening Live Music 18th June Handicap Chase (0-109)24f · Good · 16 ran PU 25/1

29 Apr 10 Tipperary Proud As Punch (IRE)T: Eugene M O'Sullivan Portrait Gallary At Kilfeacle Stud Handicap Chase (0-102)20f · Good · 17 ran 7th 20/1

18 Apr 10 Tramore Head Waiter (IRE)T: Eugene M O'Sullivan Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Chase (0-123)22f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 10th 10/1

10 Oct 09 Chepstow Fongoli (GB)T: Brendan Powell Freebets.co.uk Free Bets Juvenile Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 9th 11/4F

08 Oct 09 Wincanton Vial De Kerdec (FR)T: Mark Bradstock Charity Day Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 21f · Good To Firm · 10 ran PU 3/1

07 Oct 09 Exeter Chilbury Hill (IRE)T: Kevin Bishop Bathwick Tyres Plymouth Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 18.5f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 7/1

04 Oct 09 Uttoxeter Daraz Rose (IRE)T: Barry Brennan Geldards Llp Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 4th 25/1

03 Oct 09 Fontwell Errol Flynn (IRE)T: Brendan Powell R R Donnelley Supporting Sussex Community Foundation Juvenile Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 17.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 5th 33/1

06 Sep 09 Worcester Tubby Littlejohns (IRE)T: Bernard Llewellyn Family Fun And Jockey Football Day Maiden Hurdle (Div 2)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 8th 66/1

06 Sep 09 Worcester Raise The Heights (IRE)T: Bernard Llewellyn Family Fun And Jockey Football Day Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 10th 14/1

01 Sep 09 Newton Abbot Yellow Printer (GB)T: Barry Brennan E.B.F. Juvenile Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 5th 8/1

15 Aug 09 Market Rasen Sweet Robinia (IRE)T: Brendan Powell Henderson Insurance Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Good · 15 ran PU 33/1

11 Aug 09 Newton Abbot Lord of Sehayl (FR)T: Barry Brennan South West Racing Club Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 18.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 40/1

11 Aug 09 Newton Abbot Lupita (IRE)T: Derrick Scott South West Racing Club Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 17 ran PU 40/1

11 Aug 09 Newton Abbot Kenwyn (GB)T: Kevin Bishop South West Racing Club Tours Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 14 ran PU 50/1

03 Aug 09 Newton Abbot Lord of Sehayl (FR)T: Barry Brennan Hope Cove Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 50/1

28 Jul 09 Worcester Aodh Rua (IRE)T: Dai Williams Ladbrokes Beginners' ChaseClass 4 · 23f · Good · 7 ran PU 80/1

27 Jul 09 Uttoxeter Meleeha (GB)T: Bernard Llewellyn Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer Mares' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 4th 100/1

22 Jul 09 Worcester Lupita (IRE)T: Derrick Scott Try Lunch In The Severn Restaurant Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Soft · 8 ran 5th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Willie McCarthy's strike rate?: Willie McCarthy has won 12 of 230 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.2% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Willie McCarthy's Fair A/E?: 0.87, from 230 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.