1:00 Down Royal

The KTB Fit ranking

1. 1With Nolimit KTB Selection69/100

   Form 41291- · Gordon Elliott · Jack Kennedy

   Family: the dam has had 1 other runner, not a winner.

   With Nolimit arrives with the strongest KTB Fit rating of 69 and is the clear selection. He showed useful improvement when winning two of his last three starts on the Flat and now makes his hurdle debut off the back of a break. The yard and jockey combination operates at a high level at Down Royal, with Gordon Elliott recording a 21% strike rate from 947 runs and Jack Kennedy a 31% strike rate from 175 rides. He steps up markedly in trip having won both starts on yielding ground from a small sample, and he remains open to further progress. His prominent run-style, usually racing handily on or close to the lead, looks well suited to the expected muddling tactical pace. The family line shows the dam has had one other runner that did not win.

2. 2Confidence Within62/100

   Form 3-13 · P J Rothwell · Tiernan Power Roche

   Family: full brother to Reallyntruthfully (3 wins from 12 runs). The dam has had 5 other runners, 2 of them winners.

   Confidence Within is rated second on KTB Fit with a mark of 62 and brings a lightly-raced profile with just three starts to his name. His recent form reads 3-13 and he has been seen only twice this year. The trip is a fresh question having last run over 2m2f, and he is unproven on yielding ground. Trainer P J Rothwell has a 7% strike rate at Down Royal from 368 runs, in line with his record elsewhere, while jockey Tiernan Power Roche has a 19% strike rate at the track from 16 rides. He shares the prominent run-style of the selection, usually racing handily on or close to the lead. The family line notes he is a full brother to Reallyntruthfully, who won three times from twelve runs, while the dam has had five other runners with two winners among them.

3. 3Mystery Decision55/100

   Form F-564P · Hugh Paul Finegan · Mr Finn Tegetmeier(7)

   Mystery Decision is rated 55 on KTB Fit and has shown little in two completed starts this year, finishing with a pulled-up effort on his most recent outing. His recent form reads F-564P and he now steps up markedly in trip, which poses a fresh question. The yard records a 10% strike rate at Down Royal from ten runs. He is unproven on yielding ground and has no course form on record. His held-up run-style, usually producing his effort late, may leave him with plenty to do if the race develops at a tactical pace. Jockey Mr Finn Tegetmeier is neutral at the track with no record from previous rides.

4. 4Rossnowlagh53/100

   R K Watson · Harry Sexton(7)

   Rossnowlagh is rated 53 on KTB Fit and showed little on his sole start when finishing 11th here over shorter. He now steps up markedly in trip with first-time headgear applied and a 7 lb claimer in the saddle. The trainer has a 3% strike rate at Down Royal from 251 runs, in line with his record elsewhere, while the jockey has an 11% strike rate at the track from 27 rides, also in line with his figures at other courses. He is unproven on yielding ground and has no win or place from his one run at the course. His run-style is prominent with limited evidence, usually racing handily though confidence in that assessment is low.

5. 5The Stags51/100

   Form FPP-4 · Gordon Elliott · Sam Ewing

   Family: half-brother to Boultydoolin (1 win from 3 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 2 of them winners.

   The Stags is rated 51 on KTB Fit and is a debutant whose pedigree offers some encouragement. He is a half-brother to Boultydoolin, who won once from three runs, while the dam has produced two winners from two runners to race. Gordon Elliott has a 21% strike rate at Down Royal from 947 runs, which sits above his overall figure, and Sam Ewing matches his general record with a 14% strike rate here from 94 rides. There is no racecourse form on which to judge him and data confidence remains low, leaving the picture tentative. His sire Westerner has an overall win rate of 12% from 11832 runners. He has no course win on record.

6. 6Master Locksley50/100

   Form 24 · William Harvey · Ben Harvey

   Master Locksley is rated 50 on KTB Fit and has shown fair placed form in his only two starts to date. The yard has a 0% strike rate from nine runs at Down Royal while the jockey operates at an 8% strike rate here, in line with his record elsewhere. He steps up in trip today and his going preference remains unknown from a small sample. His run-style is mid-division with limited evidence.

7. 7Water Mill50/100

   Form 2- · Gordon Elliott · Danny Gilligan

   Family: the dam has had 1 other runner, not a winner.

   Water Mill is rated 50 on KTB Fit and is a debutant with very limited pedigree information. The dam has produced just one previous runner that failed to win. Connections are in solid form at Down Royal with the trainer recording a 21% strike rate from 947 runs and the jockey a 19% strike rate from 52 rides. His sire Poet's Word has an overall win rate of 10% from 712 runners and he has no course win on record.

8. 8Hello Wee Love47/100

   Form P · R K Watson · Alex Harvey

   Family: half-sister to Twominutes Turkish (1 win from 7 runs). The dam has had 5 other runners, 2 of them winners.

   Hello Wee Love is rated 47 on KTB Fit and showed very little on her sole start when pulled up. The lightly-raced filly now steps back up in trip with only a small sample to judge her on, and the family has produced modest winners at best. Trainer and jockey both operate at their usual level at Down Royal. Her run-style is held up with limited evidence.

9. 9Miss Bo Peep42/100

   C A McBratney · Shane Markey(7)

   Miss Bo Peep is rated 42 on KTB Fit and is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at Down Royal from 423 runs, in line with his record elsewhere, while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from nine rides at the track. With low data confidence and no other form lines available, her prospects remain entirely unknown. Her sire Shirocco has an overall win rate of 11% from 9424 runners.

10. 10Booklight39/100

    Form 7 · C A McBratney · Sean Flanagan

    Booklight is rated 39 on KTB Fit and has shown little in nine runs, finishing well beaten on his only previous visit to Down Royal when sixth. The yard’s 6% strike rate here sits in line with its record elsewhere while Sean Flanagan’s 10% rate at the track is similarly in line with his wider figures. He steps up markedly in trip on yielding ground, on which he has one run without a win or place, adding a fresh question to a horse that remains largely unexposed. His run-style is prominent.

11. 11Unfortunatecharlie33/100

    Form /21-89 · Noel C. Kelly · Ms E Dunseath(7)

    Family: the dam has had 1 other runner, not a winner.

    Unfortunatecharlie is rated 33 on KTB Fit and has shown ability with two placed efforts in points but has been well held in both completed hurdle starts this year. The yard's 3% strike rate at Down Royal sits below their 8% at other tracks while the 7 lb claimer has only four rides here so far. He steps up markedly in trip today and is unproven on yielding ground. The family line shows the dam has had one other runner that did not win. His run-style is prominent.