1:20 Stratford
This Class 4 mares' maiden hurdle at Stratford over 2m6f7y on soft ground brings together a field of nine with relatively limited experience between them. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Western Charm on 68, with Posh Chick, Rosie Mahler and Trinity Street all on 64-65, suggesting an open-looking contest where yard form at the track and ability to handle the step up in trip will be key. Western Charm drops in class having shown fair form in bumpers and mixed hurdles, while several others bring placed efforts or useful pedigrees but face unknowns on the ground or at the distance.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners in the line-up, notably Posh Chick and Secret des Lune, while Trinity Street and Capricciose are likely to race prominently. This shape could see the pace collapse in the latter stages on soft ground, which would play to those settling in mid-division or held up. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the hands of a patient hold-up performer as the leaders tire late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Western Charm KTB Selection68/100
Western Charm is the KTB selection. She showed fair form when winning a bumper on debut and has since mixed hurdles with another bumper run. The step up from 1m7f to 2m6f is a fresh question while the soft ground remains unknown with only four runs on the board. Dropping in class looks a positive and she typically settles in midfield. Anthony Honeyball has a 36% strike rate at Stratford from 53 runs, notably above their 18% at other courses. Half-sister to Stainsby Girl, a Listed winner from a dam that has produced one other winner from two runners.
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2Posh Chick65/100
Posh Chick showed promise when winning a bumper on debut then placed on her hurdling start at 2m2f. She now steps up in trip as a lightly-raced 5-year-old with only two career runs over obstacles. Stepping up in class is the flip side but the yard's excellent 36% strike rate at Stratford from 53 runs, well above their 18% elsewhere, offers plenty of encouragement. She tends to make the running or race on the pace and is unproven on soft ground. The strong pace shape could suit her prominent style if she can see it out.
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3Rosie Mahler64/100
Rosie Mahler showed promise when second on debut over 2m4f. She steps up in trip today to a distance that remains an unknown. Half-sister to smart Grade 2 winner Dreal Deal and from a family with plenty of winners. Harry Derham has a 22% strike rate at Stratford from 18 runs while Paul O'Brien has a 25% strike rate at the track from 57 rides. She typically settles in midfield though the evidence is limited. Unproven on soft ground and with low data confidence given the small sample.
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4Trinity Street64/100
Trinity Street is a smart performer who has shown steady progress in five starts, finishing no worse than fourth and picking up placed efforts on three occasions. She has an official rating of 111 and is dropping in class. Steps up in trip today having last run over two and a half miles and the dam's limited produce record offers no strong clues. Usually races handily on or close to the lead. Trainer operates at a 15% strike rate here from 219 runs in line with his overall record while Sam Twiston-Davies has a 17% strike rate at Stratford from 440 rides. Placed twice from three runs on soft ground.
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5Capricciose61/100
Capricciose showed promise when winning a bumper on soft ground and has a half-sister who was a smart jumps performer. The step up to 2m6f is an unknown and the small overall sample means her ability remains hard to pin down. Dropping in class and with a 1 win from 3 on soft. Usually races handily and Dan Skelton has a 23% strike rate at Stratford while Harry Skelton matches that record.
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6Fountains Gala55/100
Fountains Gala is a lightly raced mare with a modest record after three starts and an unseated last time. Steps up in trip today which is a fresh question. Full sister to a Grade 3 winner and out of a dam who has produced plenty of winners but the small sample means this one must be treated with caution. Usually races handily and unproven on soft ground. The yard has a 13% strike rate at Stratford from 8 runs.
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7Vajra54/100
Vajra has only one run to his name in the last year and showed little on that start. The yard has an 18% strike rate at Stratford from 34 runs which is above their 7% at other tracks while the 3lb claimer has a limited record here. Lightly raced with a small sample overall so this step up in trip is simply an unknown. Usually held up and unproven on soft ground.
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8Secret des Lune52/100
Secret des Lune showed fair form when runner-up twice over shorter trips last year before a respectable sixth on return. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question and the dam's limited family record offers little encouragement. Tends to make the running or race on the pace and unproven on soft ground. Trainer Ben Clarke has an 11% strike rate at Stratford from 9 runs while the jockey has only a small sample here.
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9Jax Belle50/100
Jax Belle has shown modest form in three starts and steps up in trip today as a fresh question. She is a full sister to high-class chaser Jax Junior and comes from a family that has already produced winners. Trainer Lucy Wadham operates at a 9% strike rate here which is in line with her record elsewhere. Typically settles in midfield and has one run on soft with no win or place.
KTB verdict
Western Charm is the KTB selection in a race where the strong pace could play into the hands of those who settle off it. She brings fair bumper form, drops in class, and benefits from Anthony Honeyball's strong 36% strike rate at Stratford. The selection's ability to handle the longer trip and soft ground remains to be seen but she shapes as the one to beat on balance. Main dangers are Posh Chick, who could make the running for the same yard, and Rosie Mahler, whose pedigree and debut promise command respect despite the unknowns. Trinity Street brings the highest official rating and proven soft-ground form but has more miles on the clock.
KTB Selection Western Charm
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 29 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Western Charm | 20/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Posh Chick | 13/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Rosie Mahler | 13/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Trinity Street | Evens | BetTom, 12:03am |
| Capricciose | 5/2 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Fountains Gala | 250/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Vajra | 200/1 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
| Secret des Lune | 18/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Jax Belle | 40/1 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:20 Stratford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Stratford racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Stratford results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Stratford racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse benefits most from the strong pace shape?
Hold-up horses are favoured if the strong pace collapses late, with Western Charm typically settling in midfield and Vajra usually held up.
How does the trainer with the best Stratford record among the principals fare?
Anthony Honeyball has a 36% strike rate at Stratford from 53 runs, well above their 18% at other courses, and saddles both Western Charm and Posh Chick.
Which runners are proven on soft ground?
Trinity Street has been placed twice from three runs on soft while Capricciose won a bumper on soft ground; all others are unproven on the surface.
What does the family line say about Rosie Mahler?
Half-sister to Dreal Deal, a Grade 2 winner from 10 wins out of 60 runs. The dam has had 6 other runners, 4 of them winners.
Which horses are stepping up or dropping in class?
Western Charm and Trinity Street are dropping in class while Posh Chick is stepping up in class; several others have no explicit class move noted.
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