1:35 Punchestown
This 3-year-old hurdle at Punchestown over 2m46y on good ground brings together a field of nine with very limited jumps experience between them. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched from 50 down to 40, underlining how little hard form there is to work with and how much rests on trainer and jockey records at the track. With only a handful of previous winners in the line-up, the race looks wide open on paper yet the pace shape suggests a clear advantage to the horse who can dictate matters.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner enjoying an uncontested lead that will be difficult for those coming from off the pace to reel in. Sea Of Dubka is the most natural front-runner in the field and is likely to take up that role, while Danny Power and others may settle in behind. The key question is whether anything can close effectively enough on the good ground to overcome the uncontested lead that is forecast.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Danny Power KTB Selection50/100
Danny Power showed promise when winning his only start so far and has already scored over today's trip on good ground. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Punchestown from 121 runs offers little encouragement while the jockey's 12% record from nearly 950 rides is more respectable but still below average. With just one run on the board this assessment must be treated with real caution. Mark Walsh takes the ride for John Queally and the colt's ability to handle the trip and surface gives him a solid foundation. As the KTB Selection he is taken to build on that debut success in a race short on depth.
-
2Kenough48/100
Kenough has had just two career starts and steps up markedly in trip today from 1m2f. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate from 391 runs at Punchestown while J J Slevin posts a 10% record from 341 rides here. With so little racecourse evidence overall the form must be treated with real caution. Joseph Patrick O'Brien's colt is expected to settle in midfield and will need to improve plenty to feature. The trip is a significant unknown and his lack of experience on good ground adds another layer of uncertainty.
-
3Sea Of Dubka47/100
Sea Of Dubka arrives off the back of a recent win and has shown she handles good ground well with two victories from as many starts. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question while the yard's 11% strike rate from 1000 runs at Punchestown is modest. This looks a fairly exposed 3-year-old with medium data confidence. Darragh O'Keeffe rides for Henry de Bromhead and the filly's front-running style is likely to see her set the pace in a race with a lone-leader shape. That projected uncontested lead could prove a major asset if she stays the trip.
-
4Bell Ex Too46/100
A 3-year-old with a recent win on the board and some history to work from, Bell Ex Too drops back in trip to an untried 2m today which asks a fresh question. Trainer has a solid 12% strike rate from 33 runs at Punchestown while the jockey remains winless from 13 rides here. Paddy Cody claims 7lb for R P Cody and the gelding is likely to be held up before delivering his effort late. He has no win or place from two previous runs on good ground, which adds a note of caution on the forecast surface.
-
5Contador45/100
Contador is a newcomer from the Gordon Elliott yard. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Punchestown from a huge sample of 1807 runs while Jack Kennedy posts a 15% strike rate from 490 rides at the track. With no racecourse form to go on the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
-
6Mahzuz45/100
Mahzuz has only one career run behind him and steps up markedly in trip today from 1m2f, so this is very much an unknown quantity. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate from 142 runs at Punchestown while Aidan Kelly is on 6% from 125 rides here, both well below par. With such a small sample overall the form has to be treated with real caution.
-
7Dunmore43/100
Lightly raced 3-year-old with only two career starts and a modest seventh on latest outing. Trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at Punchestown. Trip has been tried once without success and going suitability remains unknown on this small sample.
-
8Julie's Moon41/100
Lightly raced and only sixth on her most recent start so there is little to go on here. The trip is a step up from what she has tried and the small sample makes it hard to be sure how she will cope. Trainer records a 6% strike rate from 103 runs at Punchestown.
-
9Palace Tyne40/100
Palace Tyne brings some Flat form to this jumps debut but steps up markedly in trip having last run over 1m2f. The move to hurdles looks a logical try given the pedigree background yet the yard's modest 6% strike rate at Punchestown from 142 runs offers little encouragement. Jockey Peter Smithers is also 0 from 49 rides here so the combination carries limited appeal at this stage.
KTB verdict
Danny Power is the KTB Selection and sets a clear standard having won his only start to date over this trip on good ground. The assessment carries the usual health warning attached to such lightly raced types, yet he looks to have the best blend of proven ability and suitable conditions. Sea Of Dubka is the obvious danger on the back of a recent win and with the likely uncontested lead in her favour, while Kenough, Bell Ex Too and the Elliott newcomer Contador are the main others to consider in a race that is short on established jumps form.
KTB Selection Danny Power
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 13 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Power | 5/6 | Bet365 |
| Kenough | 11/2 | Bet Victor |
| Sea Of Dubka | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Bell Ex Too | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Contador | 5/1 | BetTom |
| Mahzuz | 200/1 | BetTom |
| Dunmore | 150/1 | Bet Victor |
| Julie's Moon | 150/1 | BetTom |
| Palace Tyne | 150/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 1:35 Punchestown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Punchestown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Punchestown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Punchestown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Sea Of Dubka, whose front-running style and record of two wins from two starts on good ground make her the natural pace-setter in a lone-leader shape.
Why is Danny Power rated the selection despite limited racecourse evidence?
He showed promise when winning his only start so far, has already scored over today's trip on good ground, and is taken to build on that in a race short on depth.
How does the yard record at Punchestown influence the assessment of Sea Of Dubka?
Henry de Bromhead has an 11% strike rate from 1000 runs at the track, which is modest and contributes to the view that she is a fairly exposed 3-year-old with medium data confidence.
What is the main concern for Kenough in this race?
He has had just two career starts, steps up markedly in trip from 1m2f, has no runs on good ground, and with so little racecourse evidence the form must be treated with real caution.
Why does the race pose questions for Bell Ex Too?
He drops back in trip to an untried 2m, has no win or place from two runs on good ground, and the jockey remains winless from 13 rides at Punchestown.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies