What is Padraig Roche's strike rate?

Padraig Roche has won 48 of 558 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.6% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Padraig Roche do best at?

Fairyhouse by strike rate: 6 wins from 46 runners (13%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Padraig Roche?

Aidan Kelly, with 133 runners since 2022 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (10.5%).

Is Padraig Roche in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Padraig Roche's Fair A/E?

1.07, from 558 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Padraig Roche

558 runners in the last 5 seasons · 76 individual horses

As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 9 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)

from 1 Jan 2022

48–558

Wins / Runs

8.6%

Strike rate

n=558

126 (23%)

Placed

1.07

Fair A/E

n=558 · 0.85 incl. margin

−190.31

£1 level stake

n=558 at SP · −34.1%

£880k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

4.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 110 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.07). In Group and Graded company the record reads 11% (37 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 558 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Apr Fresh horses: 8.8% 28.2% when favourite Aidan Kelly: 10.5% from 133 Group/Graded: 10.8% Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

Debutants struggle at 0% (n=39, Fair A/E 0.00). Aidan Kelly rides 24% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.5%, A/E 1.61) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good to Soft going (15.1%, n=93). The record reads poorly off a 8-14-day break — 0% over 38 runners, 8.6pts below the baseline. 6 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Ballymore Champion Four Year Old Hurdle at Punchestown (May 2026, £73,625). The stable star of the record: Walking On Glass (IRE) — 8 wins from 69 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.8%+0.2

n=160 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −43.09

New recruits · first run for the yard

5.3%−3.3

n=19 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −15.50

Debutants · first career start

0%−8.6

n=39 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −39.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.5%−4.1

n=22 · A/E 0.55 · £1 +7.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5.6%−3.0

n=18 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −1.00

When favourite

28.2%

n=39 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −5.35

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.5%−0.1

n=284 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −75.22

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10.8%+2.2

n=37 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −14.12

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 21.3% vs 8.6% · n=47

With Mark Walsh 19.3% vs 8.6% · n=83

With debutants 0% vs 8.6% · n=39

Off a 8-14-day break 0% vs 8.6% · n=38

On Good to Soft going 15.1% vs 8.6% · n=93

With Leigh Roche 2% vs 8.6% · n=49

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 281 29 10.3% −92.34

Flat 141 7 5% −59.67

Chase 127 12 9.4% −29.30

NH Flat 9 0 0% −9.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 195 14 7.2% −105.20

Good 146 10 6.8% −80.90

Heavy 108 9 8.3% −39.67

Good to Soft 93 14 15.1% +22.46

Standard (AW) 12 1 8.3% +17.00

Good to Firm 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 91 7 7.7% −36.92

Naas 67 3 4.5% −52.37

Fairyhouse 46 6 13% +12.00

Curragh 43 3 7% −22.67

Navan 35 1 2.9% −29.00

Gowran Park 26 3 11.5% +0.50

Wexford 26 5 19.2% +3.98

Kilbeggan 25 4 16% +4.91

Limerick 25 3 12% −10.00

Leopardstown 22 1 4.5% −17.50

Galway 21 1 4.8% −6.00

Thurles 17 1 5.9% −12.00

Clonmel 14 2 14.3% −5.07

Bellewstown 12 1 8.3% −3.00

Tipperary 12 0 0% −12.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 41 5 12.2% −7.12

Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00

Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 51 13 25.5% 1.08 −7.85

2nd–3rd fav 105 14 13.3% 0.89 −33.96

4th–6th fav 132 15 11.4% 1.54 +11.50

7th+ in betting 270 6 2.2% 0.80 −160.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

87% completed · 408 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 127 79.5% 4 7 15 0 0

Hurdle 281 90.4% 5 1 21 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Walking On Glass (IRE) 35 3 7 30 Apr 26

Brazil (IRE)from A P O'Brien 30 4 6 23 Nov 25

Back Down Under (IRE) 28 2 14 10 Oct 26

Outside The Door (IRE) 28 5 10 4 Jul 26

Ernie From Nurney (IRE) 22 2 6 7 May 26

The Virginian (IRE)from G M Lyons 20 1 2 24 Aug 25

Miss Pronunciation (IRE) 18 3 6 22 Mar 26

I'm Flattered (IRE) 17 1 1 24 Jul 26

One Horse Army (IRE) 17 3 4 16 May 26

Win Some Lose Some (IRE) 16 4 6 1 Feb 26

Birdsandthebees (IRE) 16 2 6 6 Aug 25

Biggerthanbigtime (IRE) 15 0 2 30 Sep 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 76 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 20 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from A P O'Brien (5) and W P Mullins (3); 40 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard, most often for Ben Haslam (2); 54 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 5

Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

513101381161131572

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderAidan Kelly

24% of all rides
10.5% SR · A/E 1.61

RiderRWSR£1

Aidan Kelly 133 14 10.5% −4.15

Peter Smithers 112 8 7.1% −43.40

Mark Walsh 83 16 19.3% −8.47

Leigh Roche 49 1 2% −40.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.58m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 16 wins

Saratoga (IRE) — Ballymore Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (Grade 1) Punchestown · May 2026 · Grade 1

£73,625

Brazil (IRE) — Guinness Handicap (Premier Handicap) Galway · Aug 2023

£64,900

Saratoga (IRE) — McCoy Contractors Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2026 · Class 1

£45,016

Notable horses

Walking On Glass (IRE) Outside The Door (IRE) Bay Hill (IRE) Demi Plie (IRE) Brazil (IRE) Marshalled (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Flemensfirth (USA) 8.9% · 5–56

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,274 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses).

Galileo (IRE) 11.4% · 5–44

Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,191 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 889.

Walk In The Park (IRE) 11.6% · 5–43

Progeny have won 13.2% of 6,941 runs since 2008 (691 horses).

Big Bad Bob (IRE) 8.6% · 3–35

Progeny have won 8.8% of 4,568 runs since 2008 (314 horses).

Milan (GB) 17.1% · 6–35

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,848 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Australia (GB) 7.1% · 2–28

Progeny have won 11.1% of 5,642 runs since 2008 (563 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.5% from 108.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,047 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,047 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2018 to 13 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Spellitoutforme (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly William Hill Challenge Series Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 13 ran PU 300/1

13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Cometothinkofit (IRE)J: Peter Smithers William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 11th 20/1

13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Palace Tyne (IRE)J: Peter Smithers William Hill Challenge Series 3-Y-O Hurdle16f · Good · 9 ran PU 250/1

13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Mahzuz (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly William Hill Challenge Series 3-Y-O Hurdle16f · Good · 9 ran 4th 250/1

10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Back Down Under (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Naas Racecourse Handicap7f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 7/2J

05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Coppernpex (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 10 ran 8th 150/1

05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Little Bonnie (IRE)J: Peter Smithers Adare Manor Opportunity Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 10 ran 6th 16/1

04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Beyond Your Dreams (IRE)J: Miss A B O'Connor Holden Plant Rentals Lady Riders Classic (Q.R.) Handicap12f · Yielding · 12 ran 5th 12/1

28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Watching The Clock (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Castlecoote Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 7th 6/1

27 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Palace Tyne (IRE)J: Miss A B O'Connor Kwiff Supercharged Betting (Q.R.) Handicap10f · Heavy · 18 ran 18th 40/1

21 Sep 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Back Down Under (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap7f · Good · 12 ran 2nd 11/2

27 Aug 26 Navan (IRE) Nando Lily (IRE)J: Leigh Roche GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap14f · Good · 18 ran 7th 80/1

27 Aug 26 Navan (IRE) Back Down Under (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Navan Racing Festival Early Bird Tickets On Sale Now Handicap6f · Good · 9 ran 4th 4/1

21 Aug 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Malikanna (IRE)J: Mark Walsh Tom Lynam Memorial Handicap Hurdle19f · Good · 15 ran 9th 12/1

24 Jul 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) I'm Flattered (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Massey Ferguson Johnston Farm Equipment Longford Handicap Hurdle (Div I)19f · Good · 16 ran 8th 9/1

18 Jul 26 Curragh (IRE) Back Down Under (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Liverpool FC Foundation Scurry Handicap6.5f · Good To Firm · 20 ran 12th 20/1

16 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Malikanna (IRE)J: Peter Smithers Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (Div II)20.5f · Good · 14 ran 8th 9/1

04 Jul 26 Bellewstown Outside The Door (IRE)J: Peter Smithers QuinnBet Bellewstown Handicap Hurdle24.5f · Good · 15 ran 6th 15/2

28 Jun 26 Curragh Back Down Under (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Dubai Duty Free Rockingham Handicap (Premier Handicap)5f · Good · 16 ran 5th 15/2

24 Jun 26 Naas Nando Lily (IRE)J: Jamie Powell Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden8f · Good · 19 ran 16th 250/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Padraig Roche's strike rate?: Padraig Roche has won 48 of 558 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.6% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Padraig Roche do best at?: Fairyhouse by strike rate: 6 wins from 46 runners (13%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Padraig Roche?: Aidan Kelly, with 133 runners since 2022 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (10.5%).
Is Padraig Roche in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Padraig Roche's Fair A/E?: 1.07, from 558 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.