1:59 Nottingham
This Class 4 fillies' handicap over 1m6f at Nottingham on good ground features a compact field of seven. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Nightsinwhitesatin heading the list on 63, followed closely by Russian Rumour on 60 and a pair on 58 in Nowshesdancing and Hello Friend. Overall the numbers point to a competitive race where course experience, trip suitability and the application of first-time headgear could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is that of a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that may prove difficult for closers to bridge. Tabasko is the only front-runner in the field and is likely to bowl along in isolation, while the remaining six runners are all held-up types who will be produced with their efforts late. The key question is whether the clear leader can dictate matters throughout or if the pack, racing from off the pace, can reel the front-runner in over the extended trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Nightsinwhitesatin KTB Selection63/100
Nightsinwhitesatin is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning of late, finishing second on four occasions from his last six starts. He has already won over this course and acts on good ground, recording two wins and three places from seven runs on the surface. The yard holds a 22% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.21 from 54 runs, while Daniel Tudhope has a 15% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.91 from 255 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he now steps up to an untried 1m6f with first-time headgear applied. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 19/94 (20%) record with an A/E of 0.94.
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2Russian Rumour60/100
Russian Rumour is a fair sort who has won twice at this track from eight runs and also possesses a solid record at this trip with two wins from 23 starts. He has posted consistent recent form figures of 134333 and acts on good ground with two wins and four places from 11 runs. The yard's 6% strike rate at Nottingham from 144 runs is modest, though the 17% record when teaming up with this jockey offers some balance. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he has the benefit of a wealth of experience at Nottingham. At nine years of age he brings the highest course strike rate in the field.
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3Nowshesdancing58/100
Nowshesdancing is a fair performer with solid recent form that includes a win and two placed efforts from her last six starts. She steps up in trip to 1m6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while she has no course form on record. The yard holds a 16% strike rate at Nottingham from 44 runs and the jockey has a 23% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.63 from 22 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late with medium confidence, she has recorded two runs on good ground without a win or a place. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 28/219 (13%) record with an A/E of 0.78.
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4Hello Friend58/100
Hello Friend is a fair 3-year-old with solid placed form at this trip from his only attempt, though he steps back up from 1m4f today. Consistent recent efforts read 22425 and the yard posts a 12% strike rate at Nottingham from 447 runs. The small number of runs leaves going suitability unclear, though he has been competitive without winning on good ground from two starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he has no course form on record. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 406/2535 (16%) record with an A/E of 0.92.
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5Reem Rak57/100
Reem Rak is a fair performer who has already won over this trip. She has run well on several occasions this year but was well below form when tenth over course and distance on her most recent start here, and she drops in class. The trainer has a solid 20% strike rate at Nottingham from 272 runs.
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6Tabasko56/100
Tabasko is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with two wins and several placed efforts from nine starts. She drops back to a trip she has won over already and has handled good ground in the past, while stepping up in class. Ed Walker has an 18% strike rate at Nottingham from 154 runs.
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7Palomezcal43/100
Palomezcal is a modest performer who has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing well beaten on each occasion. The step up to 1m6f is a fresh question and could help, though the yard's solid 14% strike rate at Nottingham offers some encouragement, and she drops in class. She still looks limited on what has been seen so far.
KTB verdict
Nightsinwhitesatin is the KTB Selection. A fair and consistent performer with a course win already to his name and proven effectiveness on good ground, he looks well placed to capitalise on the first-time headgear while the yard continues in solid form at Nottingham. The uncontested lead enjoyed by the lone front-runner poses the main threat to held-up types, yet his proven ability to produce a late effort suggests he can get to the front in the closing stages. Russian Rumour, with his strong course record and consistent recent form, and the lightly raced 3-year-old Hello Friend are the most obvious dangers, while Nowshesdancing could improve for the longer trip.
KTB Selection Nightsinwhitesatin
This is the narrative read of the 1:59 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most proven at Nottingham?
Russian Rumour has won here twice from eight runs.
How does the first-time headgear affect Nightsinwhitesatin?
It is now applied as he steps up to an untried 1m6f, having been a consistent fair performer finishing second four times from his last six starts.
Who is likely to set the pace?
Tabasko tends to make the running or race on the pace and the pace shape indicates a lone leader with an uncontested lead.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at the track?
Edward Bethell has a 22% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.21 from 54 runs.
What trip question does Nowshesdancing face?
She steps up in trip to 1m6f for the first time today.
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