What is Ray Dawson's strike rate?

Ray Dawson has won 221 of 1,759 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.6% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Ray Dawson do best at?

Leicester by strike rate: 14 wins from 75 rides (18.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Ray Dawson ride most for?

Roger Varian, with 457 rides since 2022 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 90 (19.7%).

Is Ray Dawson in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 14 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Ray Dawson's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 1,752 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Ray Dawson

1,759 rides in the last 5 seasons · 1,082 individual horses

As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 7 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)

from 1 Jan 2022

221–1,759

Wins / Runs

12.6%

Strike rate

n=1,759

566 (32%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=1,752 · 0.86 incl. margin

−233.75

£1 level stake

n=1,759 at SP · −13.3%

£4.51m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.5%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 350 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 13% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.01). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (201 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,759 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 4 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 13.2% 36.6% when favourite Roger Varian: 19.7% from 457 LTO winners: 19.4% Rides the favourite in 13% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Sandown (27%, n=37) and York (23.7%, n=38) — all clear of the rider's 12.6% baseline. It is weakest at Newbury (0% over 42 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 19.4% (n=201, Fair A/E 1.05), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 8.1% (n=209, Fair A/E 1.22). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 13.2% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.15 and +76.50 to a £1 stake over 272 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Roger Varian supplies 26% of the rides and beats the rider's average (19.7% vs 12.6%, A/E 0.99) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (25%, n=52). 14 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the John Smith's Cup at York (Jul 2026, £103,080). The standout partner of the record: Symbol of Hope (GB) — 5 wins from 14 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.1%−1.5

n=1,022 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −119.32

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

19.4%+6.8

n=201 · A/E 1.05 · £1 +32.45

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

13.2%+0.6

n=272 · A/E 1.15 · £1 +76.50

When favourite

36.6%

n=227 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −12.57

Big fields · 14+ runners

8.1%−4.5

n=209 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −93.88

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10.6%−2.0

n=94 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −31.45

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Sandown 27% vs 12.6% · n=37

Off a 0-7-day break 25% vs 12.6% · n=52

At Newbury 0% vs 12.6% · n=42

With Roger Varian 19.7% vs 12.6% · n=457

At York 23.7% vs 12.6% · n=38

With new recruits 3.3% vs 12.6% · n=60

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 534 72 13.5% −50.14

Good 490 59 12% −125.64

Good to Firm 400 46 11.5% −33.23

Good to Soft 171 28 16.4% −11.29

Soft 101 11 10.9% −18.45

Heavy 37 2 5.4% +20.50

Firm 26 3 11.5% −15.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 129 16 12.4% −42.34

Wolverhampton (AW) 121 18 14.9% +0.04

Chelmsford City (AW) 95 13 13.7% +9.75

Yarmouth 92 9 9.8% −57.94

Bath 91 9 9.9% −38.25

Nottingham 86 16 18.6% +7.25

Leicester 75 14 18.7% +91.25

Newmarket 74 7 9.5% −15.50

Lingfield (AW) 73 9 12.3% −0.06

Windsor 68 8 11.8% −10.34

Southwell (AW) 65 9 13.8% −15.32

Ascot 64 4 6.3% −33.00

Doncaster 64 8 12.5% −26.77

Newmarket 60 7 11.7% −19.34

Goodwood 59 5 8.5% −29.75

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 530 72 13.6% −93.28

Class 4 393 45 11.5% −50.33

Class 6 379 43 11.3% +11.19

Class 2 192 21 10.9% −46.95

Class 3 169 29 17.2% −25.26

Class 1 94 10 10.6% −31.45

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 256 89 34.8% 1.04 −18.49

2nd–3rd fav 435 70 16.1% 0.93 −83.76

4th–6th fav 535 48 9% 1.15 +7.50

7th+ in betting 533 14 2.6% 0.82 −139.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Symbol of Hope (GB) 14 5 5 17 Aug 26

Mr Swivell (GB) 10 2 7 11 Jul 26

Louie The Legend (IRE) 10 1 2 23 Apr 26

Over Spiced (GB) 9 2 4 6 Aug 26

Indalo (IRE) 8 1 4 26 Sep 26

Little Dorrit (GB) 7 1 2 25 Oct 26

Fantasy Obsessor (GB) 7 2 5 6 Oct 26

Saddadd (IRE) 7 2 4 4 Oct 26

Fondo Blanco (GB) 7 1 4 5 Sep 26

Ride The Thunder (IRE) 7 1 5 19 Aug 26

Sallaal (IRE) 7 4 5 8 Aug 26

So Smart (IRE) 7 1 2 9 May 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,082 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 14

Only 14 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

··171314131216911··

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardRoger Varian

26% of all rides
19.7% SR · A/E 0.99

TrainerRWSR£1

Roger Varian 457 90 19.7% −116.78

Grace Harris 88 12 13.6% −17.00

Mark Loughnane 74 6 8.1% −25.87

T J Kent 73 8 11% +1.88

Michael Appleby 68 13 19.1% +38.66

Robert Cowell 62 8 12.9% +33.06

Tony Carroll 54 2 3.7% −41.00

Henry Spiller 52 6 11.5% −5.17

Dylan Cunha 51 3 5.9% −39.75

Stuart Williams 34 4 11.8% +4.91

James Ferguson 32 4 12.5% −16.62

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→

340

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£5.95m

Prize money

2022

Best season · 65 wins

Raammee (GB) — John Smith's Cup (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race) York · Jul 2026 · Class 2

£103,080

Rahiebb (GB) — Boodles Yorkshire Cup Stakes (Group 2) York · May 2026 · Group 2

£102,078

Zain Claudette (IRE) — Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) York · Aug 2021 · Group 2

£85,065

Notable horses

Symbol of Hope (GB) Ataser (GB) Sallaal (IRE) Lir Speciale (IRE) Danzeno (GB) Believe In Love (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dandy Man (IRE) 10.7% · 6–56

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,968 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Dark Angel (IRE) 9.3% · 4–43

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,928 runs since 2011 (1,595 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Starspangledbanner (AUS) 12.2% · 5–41

Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,203 runs since 2014 (664 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.5% from 1,196.

Kodiac (GB) 10.3% · 4–39

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,593 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Showcasing (GB) 5.7% · 2–35

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,637 runs since 2014 (998 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 21.2% · 7–33

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,210 runs since 2014 (1,107 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 960.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,990 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,990 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 11 October 2009 to 28 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Pure Moon (GB)T: Tom Clover Racing TV Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Soft · 13 ran 2nd 12/1

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Alnofoor (GB)T: Ms Claire O'Connell Halloween Spooktacular Fireworks 31st Oct Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 11/4

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Golden Caviar (IRE)T: Ed Dunlop Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 8th 40/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Drifts Away (GB)T: T. J. Kent Try Unibet's New Racing Bet Builder Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 6th 9/2

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Pinatubo's Legacy (GB)T: T. J. Kent Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 2nd 11/2

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Al Mandoos (GB)T: Saeed bin Suroor Unibet's New Var Goal Guarantee Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 4th 11/4

25 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Little Dorrit (GB)T: Roger Varian Prix Belle de NuitClass 1 · 14f · Soft · 13 ran 4th 10/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Prosperitas (IRE)T: T. J. Kent Rfj And Bee Jays Electrical Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 12 ran 9th 3/1F

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Ultrasoul (IRE)T: Roger Varian William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 10f · Heavy · 14 ran 3rd 20/1

24 Oct 26 Doncaster Anyasi (GB)T: Roger Varian William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap StakesClass 3 · 8f · Heavy · 10 ran 3rd 7/2

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Persian Flaw (GB)T: David Menuisier William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 18 ran 11th 40/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Never Just A Dream (IRE)T: T. J. Kent William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 11 ran 4th 17/2

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Tenshi (IRE)T: Roger Varian "What Are The Odds" By Alan Newman Ebf Maiden Fillies' Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Heavy · 8 ran 5th 25/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Inishbeg (IRE)T: Kevin Ryan William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 2 · 7f · Heavy · 9 ran 3rd 9/2

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Senor Cortez (IRE)T: John Butler Phil Bull Trophy Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 18f · Heavy · 9 ran 7th 17/2

11 Oct 26 Goodwood Wechaad (IRE)T: Roger Varian Inkerman London Handicap StakesClass 2 · 8f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 7th 11/2

11 Oct 26 Goodwood Cornichon (FR)T: Roger Varian Virgin Bet / British Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 5/2

10 Oct 26 York Apollo One (GB)T: P. Charalambous & J. Clutterbuck Sky Bet Sprint Trophy Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 6f · Good To Soft · 21 ran 17th 18/1

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Flash Rascal (GB)T: David Loughnane Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 6th 28/1

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Potomac River (GB)T: T. J. Kent Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 2nd 15/8

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 6 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · to 11 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Ray Dawson's strike rate?: Ray Dawson has won 221 of 1,759 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.6% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Ray Dawson do best at?: Leicester by strike rate: 14 wins from 75 rides (18.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Ray Dawson ride most for?: Roger Varian, with 457 rides since 2022 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 90 (19.7%).
Is Ray Dawson in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 14 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Ray Dawson's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 1,752 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.