1:29 Nottingham
This Class 4 EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes over 6f18y at Nottingham on good ground brings together a field of eight two-year-olds, the majority of whom are debutants. With limited racecourse evidence available, the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top end and rest heavily on pedigree, sales background and the respective trainers' local records. Waterside Blue emerges as the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 56/100, narrowly ahead of Hosta on 54 and Spell Catcher on 51.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style evidence across the field to form a reliable picture. A couple of runners, notably Californian Angel and Castlerock Girl, are usually held up and produce their effort late, but the remaining six lack defined patterns. The key question is whether the race develops into an even gallop or if one of the debutants can seize an uncontested lead early.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Waterside Blue KTB Selection56/100
Waterside Blue is the KTB Selection. Harry Eustace has a solid 16% strike rate at Nottingham from 44 runs, while jockey Kaiya Fraser boasts a 23% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.63 from 22 rides. As a debutant by Havana Grey, assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. Connections look capable, though with low data confidence this one has to be treated with caution. The trainer and jockey combination carries an overall record of 28/219 (13%) with an A/E of 0.78.
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2Hosta54/100
Hosta is a newcomer from Hughie Morrison's yard, which operates at a steady 11% strike rate at Nottingham from 285 runs. Callum Shepherd takes the ride and has a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.33 from 98 rides. The pair hold a combined record of 0/5 (0%). With no racecourse form and only low data confidence, the assessment rests entirely on sales and pedigree background that has not yet been tested. The filly is by A'Ali, who has a 9% overall win rate from 370 runners.
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3Spell Catcher51/100
Spell Catcher represents Richard Hannon, whose yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Nottingham from 351 runs. Pat Dobbs is in the saddle and holds an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.96 from 252 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows 208/1820 (11%) with an A/E of 0.83. As a newcomer by Dubawi, who has an 18% overall win rate from 16159 runners, the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background with no racecourse form to go on.
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4Californian Angel50/100
Californian Angel brings the most racecourse experience, with fair form shown in three runs including two placed efforts and a third here over this trip last time out. She is lightly raced, still open to some improvement, and is dropping in class from an official rating of 75. The filly is usually held up and produces her effort late. Hugo Palmer holds an 11% strike rate at Nottingham from 130 runs, while David Probert has a 9% strike rate at the track from 275 rides; their combined record stands at 18/151 (12%) with an A/E of 1.07. She is placed once from one run on good ground.
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5Venetian Storm49/100
Venetian Storm is a debutant from Ed Walker's yard, which has a solid 18% strike rate at Nottingham from 154 runs. With low data confidence and no racecourse evidence yet, his ability remains an open question and the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
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6Castlerock Girl49/100
Castlerock Girl was placed second on debut over this trip at the same track and looked to have a bit left in the tank at the line. The Clive Cox yard has a solid 15% strike-rate here from 315 runs. With only one run on the board the form has to be treated cautiously but she clearly handles the trip. She is usually held up, though with limited evidence, and remains unproven on good ground.
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7Cartography44/100
Cartography is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The Dr Richard Newland yard has a 0% strike rate from seven runs at Nottingham. Pedigree and sales background will have to carry the assessment here given the low data confidence.
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8Cuban Promise40/100
Cuban Promise has shown only modest form in two starts over this trip so far. The yard records a 7% strike rate from 56 runs at Nottingham. With such a small sample overall the filly remains hard to assess with any confidence and is unproven on good ground.
KTB verdict
Waterside Blue is the KTB Selection in a race where most of the field are debutants and hard to weigh up with confidence. The Harry Eustace-trained filly is narrowly top on the KTB Fit ratings and benefits from a yard that performs steadily at Nottingham, along with a jockey who has a strong record at the venue. Her main dangers are likely to be the other leading debutants Hosta and Spell Catcher, who bring respected trainer-jockey combinations, while Californian Angel supplies the most solid racecourse evidence and cannot be dismissed despite facing stronger opposition.
KTB Selection Waterside Blue
This is the narrative read of the 1:29 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest strike rate at Nottingham among the trainers represented?
Ed Walker has an 18% strike rate at Nottingham from 154 runs.
How many of these runners have previous racecourse experience?
Three runners have previous racecourse experience: Californian Angel (three runs), Castlerock Girl (one run) and Cuban Promise (two runs).
Which jockey has the best strike rate at Nottingham in this field?
Kaiya Fraser has a 23% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.63 from 22 rides.
Which horse is dropping in class?
Californian Angel is dropping in class.
How many debutants are in the field?
Five runners are debutants: Waterside Blue, Hosta, Spell Catcher, Venetian Storm and Cartography.
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