2:00 Ffos Las
This Class 4 maiden hurdle at Ffos Las over 1m7f182y on good ground features a field of nine with limited depth overall. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Valiant Soldier on 66, followed closely by Headofthevalley on 64 and Mr Winter on 62, indicating modest ability across the principals with little to choose between them on proven form. Most of the field arrive without course form or experience on good ground, making trainer and jockey course records at Ffos Las particularly relevant in a race that looks winnable for the right improver.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Valiant Soldier is expected to race prominently and could sit close to that leader, while Elusive Pb has a front-running style that may see him contest the early pace. Held-up runners such as Headofthevalley, Tottie's Moon and Dontcontradictme will be produced late, posing the key question of whether the clear leader can be pegged back in the straight or whether the uncontested advantage will prove decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Valiant Soldier KTB Selection66/100
Valiant Soldier has shown only modest form in three runs and was beaten a long way on his latest start. The trip looks a fresh question having failed to make an impact in one previous attempt at it. Trainer Joe Tizzard has a 28% strike rate at Ffos Las from 32 runs which is above his 14% at other courses while jockey Brendan Powell has a 13% strike rate here from 136 rides in line with his 10% elsewhere. The horse usually races handily on or close to the lead and steps up in class here. His dam has had two other runners, none of them a winner. Unproven on good ground, he remains the KTB Selection in a race where the lone-leader pace shape may suit his prominent style.
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2Headofthevalley64/100
Headofthevalley has shown only one run so far and finished third in it over this trip. The yard records a 9% strike rate at Ffos Las from 23 runs which sits in line with their 8% elsewhere while Adam Wedge has a 14% strike rate here from 535 rides which is above his 11% at other tracks. A half-brother to Diplomatic Ash who won three of nineteen starts, the horse remains low confidence given the small sample. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is unproven on good ground with no course form on record. The family line shows the dam has had three other runners, one of them a winner.
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3Mr Winter62/100
Mr Winter has shown little in three runs so far with a best effort of sixth on debut. He drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance on his only previous attempt. The yard records a 17% strike rate at Ffos Las while Bryan Carver has a 12% strike rate here in line with his record elsewhere. Typically settling in midfield, he steps up in class as a 5-year-old with no course form. Half-brother to Ahead Of The Posse who won two of twenty-eight starts, the dam has produced one other winner from two runners.
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4Kimai56/100
Kimai is a debutant with no racecourse experience and an official rating yet to be published. The dam has produced just one previous runner that failed to win, while the horse's own background and sales history are unknown here. Trainer Tom Ellis has only three runs at Ffos Las, too small a sample to judge, though jockey Jack Andrews has a 20% strike rate from five rides at the track. By Walk In The Park, a sire with a 13% overall win rate, he has no course win on record. The yard's 16% strike rate with their jockey pairing adds interest despite the lack of public form.
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5Elusive Pb56/100
Elusive Pb has shown steady placed form in three of his four starts and remains lightly raced with scope to improve. He drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance on his only previous attempt. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from five runs at Ffos Las while the jockey operates at a 13% strike rate here in line with his record elsewhere. Tends to make the running or race on the pace and has been placed once from one run on good ground.
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6Passage Guenot44/100
Passage Guenot is a debutant with no racecourse form to assess. The yard has a 16 percent strike rate at Ffos Las from 43 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, while Harry Cobden posts a 17 percent strike rate here from 92 rides, also in line with his overall figure. Data confidence is low so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background rather than proven ability. By Masked Marvel, a sire with a 15% overall win rate.
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7Tottie's Moon44/100
Tottie's Moon has shown only modest form in three starts so far with a string of 548. The trip has not brought improvement on two attempts and the small sample makes any firm assessment of the going unreliable. Trainer and jockey both operate at their expected level around Ffos Las. Usually held up and producing effort late, he has three runs on good without a win or place.
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8Akrramm43/100
Akrramm has shown very little in six runs to date and arrives off the back of a pulled-up effort last time. The trip has already been tried without success and the family record is modest with the dam producing just one non-winning runner. Trainer and jockey both operate at an 11% strike rate here at Ffos Las. Typically settles in midfield with two runs on good yielding no win or place.
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9Dontcontradictme43/100
Dontcontradictme has shown very little so far with a recent sequence of 38P-68 and no win in five career starts. He has been beaten a long way on both runs at this trip and remains a lightly raced sort with plenty to prove at this level. The trainer's 11% strike rate at the track is in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey's 7% figure here matches his overall rate. Usually held up with high confidence in that run-style and four runs on good without a win or place.
KTB verdict
Valiant Soldier is the KTB Selection. He brings the highest Fit Score of 66 in a modest field and benefits from Joe Tizzard's strong 28% strike rate at Ffos Las, well above his general mark, while his prominent style should align well with the expected lone-leader pace shape. The selection has only shown modest form to date but the yard's local record and the uncontested lead scenario give him the best chance to improve sufficiently. Main dangers are Headofthevalley, who showed fair form on his sole start, and the lightly raced Elusive Pb who has placed form to his name, while Mr Winter and the debutant Kimai cannot be entirely ruled out if the race falls their way.
KTB Selection Valiant Soldier
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 29 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Valiant Soldier | 5/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Headofthevalley | 17/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Mr Winter | 20/1 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
| Kimai | 3/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Elusive Pb | 11/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Passage Guenot | 5/2 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
| Tottie's Moon | 40/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Akrramm | 33/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Dontcontradictme | 70/1 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 2:00 Ffos Las. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ffos Las racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ffos Las results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ffos Las racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited to the expected uncontested lead pace shape?
Valiant Soldier, whose prominent run-style usually sees him race handily on or close to the lead.
What is Joe Tizzard's strike rate at Ffos Las?
28% from 32 runs, which is above his 14% at other courses.
Which runner has shown the best placed form in the field?
Elusive Pb, who has shown steady placed form in three of his four starts.
How many previous runs has Headofthevalley had?
One run so far, in which he finished third over this trip.
What does the Family line say about Valiant Soldier's dam?
The dam has had 2 other runners, none of them a winner.
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