2:44 Kelso
This Class 5 handicap chase at Kelso over 2m1f14y on good ground serves as a qualifier for the Go North One Man Series and features a compact field of six. The KTB Fit ratings identify a clear top horse on 66, with the next three clustered between 54 and 59, suggesting the principals hold the key while the remainder look vulnerable on current form and figures. Dropping in class is a theme for several runners, yet the overall picture is shaped by an uncontested lead and the question of whether any closer can bridge the gap on this stiff track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one horse getting an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in late. Achille des Rocs is the clear front-runner and should set a steady gallop from the outset, while Treaty Boy is likely to track that pace from a prominent position. The remaining quartet, including the selection Ballyfort, are all held-up types who will be looking to produce their efforts from off the pace, so the key question is whether the leader can dictate and hold on or if the closers will be given enough time to mount a challenge on this good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ballyfort KTB Selection66/100
Ballyfort is a smart performer who has won once from six starts at Kelso and arrives in solid form after finishing second on his last two outings. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance in the past and holds a 1-2 record on good ground. The eight-year-old is dropping in class from an official rating of 105 and his recent form figures of 31622- underline his consistency. Trainer N. W. Alexander and jockey Bruce Lynn both operate at their usual level here with respective strike rates of 11% and 13% at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well suited by the anticipated pace shape that gives closers something to aim at.
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2Garde des Champs59/100
Garde des Champs is a useful performer who has been a regular at Kelso and has placed three times from six runs here. He has not won for a long time and is 0-6 at today's trip, though the first-time headgear may sharpen him up. The ten-year-old is dropping in class from an official rating of 100 and his recent form figures of 433283 show steady but winless efforts. The yard's 16% strike rate at the track is above their general mark and the jockey Jack Power is operating at 21% here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the headgear to bring about improvement if he is to capitalise on the uncontested lead up front.
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3Achille des Rocs59/100
Achille des Rocs is a useful performer who showed that with a win and a second on his last two completed starts. He has already won over today's trip but steps back up in distance for the first time since, while first-time headgear is now fitted. The seven-year-old carries an official rating of 98 and his recent form figures of -PP142 highlight his ability when completing. The yard's 19% strike rate at Kelso is in line with their record elsewhere and he has placed on good ground. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, he is set to take the uncontested lead and could prove hard to peg back if the headgear has the desired effect.
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4Too Cool Forshrule54/100
Too Cool Forshrule is a useful performer who has shown enough on ratings and history to compete at this level. Only one previous run at Kelso ended in an unseat while the step up in trip today asks a fresh question though he has won over this distance before. The seven-year-old is dropping in class from an official rating of 98 and his recent form figures of 3U1PU- reflect a mixed but capable profile. Trainer's 5% strike rate here is in line with their record elsewhere while jockey Ryan Mania holds a 16% strike rate at the track which is above his figure at other courses. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be hoping the pace shape allows him to close effectively.
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5Got Grey52/100
Got Grey is a useful performer who arrives in modest form having finished no better than fourth on his last five starts. He drops back in trip today having been unsuccessful in five previous attempts at this distance, with the trainer recording a 10% strike rate at Kelso in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey has only four rides at the track which is too small a sample to judge.
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6Treaty Boy46/100
Treaty Boy is a fair performer who has placed here without winning in three runs at Kelso. He steps up in trip today having been placed once at this distance in four attempts, though he has never placed in seven runs on good ground. The trainer's 10% strike rate at the track is in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey's 14% strike rate is above his rate at other courses.
KTB verdict
Ballyfort stands out as the KTB Selection on a Fit rating of 66 and with the strongest recent form of the field. His course record, proven ability at the trip and on good ground, plus the drop in class all point to him being the one to beat from a late position in a race with an uncontested lead. The main dangers are likely to be Achille des Rocs if he can make the most of the uncontested lead and first-time headgear, while Garde des Champs and Too Cool Forshrule are the other principals who could close the gap if the pace collapses in their favour.
KTB Selection Ballyfort
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:04am, 24 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Ballyfort | 5/2 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Garde des Champs | 11/2 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Achille des Rocs | 9/4 | BoyleSports, 1:04am |
| Too Cool Forshrule | 10/1 | BoyleSports, 1:04am |
| Got Grey | 14/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Treaty Boy | 9/2 | 7Bet, 1:04am |
This is the narrative read of the 2:44 Kelso. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kelso racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kelso results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Kelso racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Achille des Rocs, whose run-style is to tend to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Two: Garde des Champs and Achille des Rocs.
Which horse has the highest strike rate for its trainer at Kelso?
Achille des Rocs, with the yard recording a 19% strike rate at Kelso from 27 runs.
Has Ballyfort previously won at this trip?
Yes, he has already won at this distance in the past.
Which runner has never placed on good ground?
Treaty Boy, who has never placed in seven runs on good ground.
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