3:20 Ascot
The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is a top-class Group 1 over the straight mile at Ascot on good ground, featuring an 11-runner field where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top end. High-class three-year-olds and older horses with strong recent form dominate the upper half of the ratings, and the overall numbers point to a race where proven ability at this level and track will be decisive. The KTB selection emerges from a yard and jockey combination that know Ascot well, while several principals bring solid course form or progressive profiles.
How the race shapes up
With a lone leader likely to have an uncontested lead, the pace shape is strongly in favour of the horse that can get an easy time out in front. Most of the principals are held-up types who will be producing their efforts late, meaning the key question is whether any of them can close the gap on a clear leader over the final furlong. The front-runner in stall two will be allowed to dictate, and the race could be won or lost by how well the closers are timed from behind.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Gstaad KTB Selection67/100
Gstaad is a high-class performer with strong recent form that includes two wins and three placings from his last five starts. He has already won at this track and over today's trip on good ground, and his overall record shows he handles this class well. The yard and jockey both hold a 14% strike rate at Ascot from large samples. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 11 and comes into the race with an official rating of 125. His age of three and recent form figures of -21223 add to the impression of a horse still improving.
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2Zavateri66/100
Zavateri is a smart performer who has won at this trip and showed his best when taking a listed race last time out. He has handled good ground and the yard has a solid record here. First run at Ascot asks a fresh question. Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall 9, he arrives with an official rating of 118. His recent form figures of 4-2551 reflect progressive form at the right level, and the combination of trainer and jockey both operate at 8% strike rates at the track.
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3Ten Bob Tony65/100
Ten Bob Tony is a high-class performer with a solid record here, including a win from three runs at Ascot. He has won on good ground and at this trip, though his recent form has been a bit up and down. Trainer Ed Walker has a 13% strike rate from 266 runs at the track while Kieran Shoemark is aboard. Usually held up and producing his effort late from a low draw in stall 3, the five-year-old carries an official rating of 121. His recent form figures of 811442 underline the inconsistency that has to be factored in.
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4Docklands64/100
Docklands is a smart performer who has won three times at this track from ten runs and also has four wins at today's trip. Consistent at a high level yet has been below best on his last two starts and is now tried in first-time headgear. Trainer has a solid 17% strike-rate at Ascot while the jockey is effective here too. Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall 5, the six-year-old is rated 115 officially. His recent form figures of -13768 show he needs to bounce back to his best.
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5Talk of New York64/100
Talk of New York is a high-class performer with a solid recent record of 311321 and three wins from six starts at this trip. Has won three times from four runs on good ground and looks suited by the conditions today, though his sole Ascot run brought only a modest third. Appleby has a 15% strike rate here from 399 runs while Buick is operating at 14% from 873 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late from stall 8, the three-year-old is rated 120 officially.
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6Zeus Olympios63/100
Zeus Olympios is a smart performer who has won both starts at this trip and looks well suited by the return to a mile. Has already won at Ascot and shown strong placed form in good company this year, though he can be a bit inconsistent. Burke's modest 9% strike-rate at the track is offset by Clifford Lee's record here. Usually held up, the four-year-old is rated 119.
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7Rayif61/100
Rayif is a high-class performer with a strong recent record including two wins at this trip from just two attempts. Has already shown his liking for Ascot and for good ground, where he is one from two. Stall one looks no hindrance and the yard's solid record here adds further confidence. The three-year-old is rated 120 officially.
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8More Thunder60/100
More Thunder is a smart performer who has run well in good company here without winning, finishing second on his last two visits to Ascot. Steps up from 7f to a trip he has placed over before, and his record on good ground reads strongly with three wins and two places from six starts. Haggas continues in solid form at this track while Marquand knows the horse well. Usually held up, the five-year-old is rated 119.
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9Hawk Mountain54/100
Hawk Mountain is a smart performer who has won three times at this trip from three attempts and drops back from 1m2f. He has shown solid placed form on good ground but his recent efforts have been mixed with a seventh last time out. Trainer Aidan O'Brien has a 14% strike rate from 921 runs at Ascot while jockey Colin Keane is making his first ride at the track. Tends to make the running.
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10Dancing Gemini47/100
Dancing Gemini is a smart performer who has run respectably at this track without winning. He has shown little spark in his last four starts and the trainer's modest record at Ascot adds no encouragement. Stays the trip and handles good ground but looks vulnerable again from stall seven. Usually held up, the five-year-old is rated 114.
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11Needle Match44/100
Needle Match is a smart performer with solid placed form at this trip. Has mixed results since his winning debut and was well below form when last seen. Trainer's solid record at Ascot adds some confidence but the small overall sample means plenty remains to be proven. Typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Gstaad stands out as the KTB selection. He brings high-class form, has already won at this track and trip on good ground, and is backed by the yard and jockey's proven records at Ascot. His held-up style should suit the expected pace shape where the lone leader may prove hard to catch. The main dangers are Zavateri, who showed his best in a listed win last time, and Ten Bob Tony, who has a strong record at the track despite some recent inconsistency. Talk of New York and Docklands add further depth in a race where the principals are closely matched on the KTB numbers.
KTB Selection Gstaad
This is the narrative read of the 3:20 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ascot results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ascot racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How many of the principals are usually held up?
All five principals are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which horse has the strongest course record among the principals?
Docklands has won here three times from ten runs.
What is the only horse with a front-running style in the full field?
Hawk Mountain tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which runner is making its first appearance at Ascot?
Zavateri has no course form on record.
How many wins has the selection recorded at Ascot?
Gstaad has won here once from two runs.
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