3:35 Doncaster
The Betfred St Leger Stakes is the traditional Classic highlight of the Doncaster St Leger Festival, a Group 1 contest over 1m6f115y on good ground that has attracted a competitive field of eleven three-year-olds. With no obvious front-runner in the line-up the race is set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair according to the KTB pace shape. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Christmas Day on 67, with four others between 55 and 59, underlining the depth and balance of the contest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious leader with medium confidence, pointing to a steadily-run race in which being handy on the turn could prove an advantage. Almost the entire field is composed of hold-up types who will be looking to produce their effort from off the pace in the straight. The key question is whether the extra distance will expose stamina limitations among those who have been racing over shorter trips, or whether the likes of those with staying pedigrees can capitalise in a tactical contest.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Christmas Day KTB Selection67/100
Christmas Day arrives as the KTB selection with a Fit rating of 67 and has been a model of consistency at a high level this season with form figures of 13123. A smart performer, he has shown himself competitive without winning his last two starts yet steps up to the untried 1m6½f which poses a fresh question of his stamina. The A P O'Brien yard posts a 14% strike rate at Doncaster from 232 runs with an A/E of 0.84, and Ronan Whelan takes the ride boasting a 25% strike rate at the track from only four rides with an A/E of 2.7. He has been placed twice from three starts on good ground though is yet to win on it, and this will be his first run at the course. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and will be hoping the steady pace allows him to close with maximum effect.
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2Pierre Bonnard59/100
Pierre Bonnard is rated a smart colt by KTB with a Fit score of 59 and has been running to a good level in Group company, finishing placed on his last two starts to give form figures of 72732. He too steps up in trip for the first time today, though the fact his dam won over two miles offers encouragement that he should stay the 1m6½f. From the powerful A P O'Brien stable, which has a 14% strike rate at Doncaster from 232 runs with an A/E of 0.84, he is ridden by Wayne Lordan who has an 8% strike rate at the track from 25 rides with an A/E of 0.72. Placed on all three starts on good ground without winning, this will be his first visit to Doncaster. A horse who is usually held up and produces his effort late, he will be hoping the tactical nature of the race plays to his strengths.
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3Enceladus59/100
Enceladus comes into the race with strong recent form and a KTB Fit rating of 59, boasting three straight wins after a couple of placed efforts to give figures of 33-111. A smart performer, he is another stepping up to a trip he has never tried before, which asks a fresh question of his stamina. First-time headgear is now applied as another unknown. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard has a 15% strike rate at Doncaster from 27 runs with an A/E of 1.06, while Billy Loughnane has a 15% strike rate at the track from 103 rides with an A/E of 0.82. He has no experience of good ground and no course form on record. Usually held up with high confidence, he will look to come from off the pace in what is expected to be a steadily-run affair.
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4Amelia Earhart55/100
Amelia Earhart is a useful filly with a KTB Fit score of 55 and has run to a solid level on her last two starts, most notably finishing second in a listed race over shorter at this track in May. She has placed on good ground with one win and three places from three starts on the surface, and showed enough stamina at 1m4f last time to suggest the step up to 1m6½f is worth trying. From the A P O'Brien stable with its 14% strike rate at Doncaster from 232 runs and A/E of 0.84, she is ridden by Tom Marquand who has a strong 13% strike rate at the track from 230 rides with an A/E of 0.99. She has been placed on her only start at the course. Usually held up with high confidence, she will be produced late in a race where being handy could pay.
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5Action55/100
Action is another from the A P O'Brien yard with a KTB Fit rating of 55 and is described as a smart three-year-old with solid placed form both at this track and on good ground. He has been mixing it at a high level throughout the season yet has looked increasingly stretched at shorter trips of late. Stepping up to the 1m6½f for the first time asks a fresh question of his stamina. The yard's 14% strike rate at Doncaster from 232 runs comes with an A/E of 0.84, and Sean Levey takes the mount with a 12% strike rate at the track from 296 rides and an A/E of 0.85. He has been placed twice from five starts on good ground without winning and was second on his only previous run here. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be counting on the steady pace to help him see out the trip.
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6Highwayman53/100
Highwayman is a useful performer with a KTB Fit rating of 53 who has won two of his last three starts and arrives in decent form with figures of 900811. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question though he has already shown he handles similar distances. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard has a 15% strike rate at Doncaster from 27 runs with an A/E of 1.06 and Saffie Osborne rides; he has one win and one place from two starts on good ground.
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7Galiyan52/100
Galiyan is a smart performer with a KTB Fit rating of 52 who has already shown strong form at this track, winning on good ground here last season and remaining competitive in useful company since, though he has not always looked the easiest ride. First-time headgear is now applied as he tackles a new trip. Andrew Balding has a 15% strike rate at Doncaster from 450 runs with an A/E of 1.03 and Daniel Tudhope takes the ride with a 12% strike rate from 591 rides and an A/E of 0.87; he has one win and one place from three starts on good ground.
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8Hatteen51/100
Hatteen is a useful performer with a KTB Fit rating of 51 and solid recent form including two wins and two seconds from his last four starts to give figures of 5-2212. He has already won here from one run at the track and steps up in trip today as a fresh question while moving up in class. Andrew Balding has a 15% strike rate at Doncaster from 450 runs with an A/E of 1.03 and Faleh Bughanaim is aboard with a 0% strike rate from two rides and an A/E of 0; he has been placed on both starts on good ground.
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9Golden Story50/100
Golden Story is a useful performer with a KTB Fit rating of 50 who won on this track on debut and has shown steady progress in three starts since with figures of 1-314. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of a horse that has looked most effective over shorter. K R Burke has a 9% strike rate at Doncaster from 572 runs with an A/E of 0.85 and Clifford Lee rides with a 9% strike rate from 140 rides and an A/E of 0.79; he has one win and one place from two starts on good ground and has won here from one run.
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10Alderman49/100
Alderman is a smart performer with a KTB Fit rating of 49 who has finished no worse than fifth in five starts and showed useful form when second in a decent handicap at Newmarket last time to give figures of 73-255. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. Richard Hannon has a 13% strike rate at Doncaster from 656 runs with an A/E of 0.88 and Rossa Ryan takes the ride with a 13% strike rate from 216 rides and an A/E of 0.89; he has been placed on his only start on good ground.
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11Rebel Rocker45/100
Rebel Rocker is a useful performer with a KTB Fit rating of 45 and recent form figures of 1-264, backed by solid ratings. He steps up in trip to 1m6½f today which asks a fresh question. Faye Bramley has a 0% strike rate at Doncaster from eight runs with an A/E of 0 and Jason Watson rides with a 7% strike rate from 97 rides and an A/E of 0.65; he has been placed on his only start on good ground.
KTB verdict
Christmas Day is the KTB Selection and sets a high bar with his consistent high-class form this season, even if the step up to 1m6½f is an unknown. His trainer-jockey combination and ability to produce a late effort in a steadily-run race are in his favour, and he looks to have the best chance of the Aidan O'Brien trio. The main dangers are Pierre Bonnard, who has the pedigree to stay and has been placed in Group company, and Enceladus, whose progressive profile and first-time headgear could see him improve again if the trip suits. Amelia Earhart and Action cannot be dismissed either given their placed course form and the depth of the O'Brien challenge.
KTB Selection Christmas Day
This is the narrative read of the 3:35 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first appearance at Doncaster in the St Leger?
Christmas Day has no course form on record.
How many of the principals are wearing headgear for the first time?
Enceladus is wearing first-time headgear.
Which runner has course-and-distance winning form at Doncaster?
None of the runners has course-and-distance winning form.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Doncaster among the principals?
Ronan Whelan has a 25% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 2.7 from four rides.
Which horse has shown the best record on good ground among the principals?
Amelia Earhart has one win from three starts on good ground and has been placed on all three.
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