3:51 Leicester
This Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip at Leicester on good to firm ground brings together an evenly-matched field of eleven where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are headed by Tiva on a mark of 85, closely followed by Brummell, Ziggy's Triton, Quantum Power and Forager, all rated in the mid-60s on the KTB scale. With no course form for the majority and several dropping in class, the race revolves around who handles the expected strong pace best and who is in the best current form.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present, including Brummell and Desert Treasure. Several others, notably Seven Questions, like to race prominently, which should ensure an honest gallop that has the potential to collapse in the final furlong. That shape places the emphasis on hold-up performers who can time their run late, posing the key question of whether any of the hold-up brigade can pick up the pieces when the leaders tire.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tiva KTB Selection67/100
Tiva is the KTB Selection. This fair performer has won five times over the trip from 22 starts and handles good to firm ground well, with two wins and three places from seven runs. Recent form of 631410 confirms ability to land a race in this grade while also highlighting some inconsistency. The David O'Meara yard posts a 15% strike rate at Leicester from 195 runs with an A/E of 0.92, and the trainer and jockey combination shows 9/66 (14%) with an A/E of 0.90. Conor Whiteley, who has a 25% strike rate at the track from only four rides and an A/E of 2.07, takes the mount on this hold-up performer who usually produces its effort late. This will be Tiva's first run at Leicester.
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2Brummell64/100
Brummell is a fair handicapper who has been knocking at the door of late, with two placed efforts in his last three starts recorded as -36432. He boasts a solid record at this trip, winning five times from 16 attempts, and goes well on good to firm with one win and two places from four runs. The Julie Camacho yard has a 15% strike rate at Leicester from 67 runs with an A/E of 1.04, while the trainer and jockey combination is 17/200 (9%) with an A/E of 0.71. Tom Kiely-Marshall, boasting a 25% strike rate at the track from 16 rides and an A/E of 1.44, partners this front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace. This is his first visit to Leicester.
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3Ziggy's Triton64/100
Ziggy's Triton is a fair performer who has won six times over this trip from 32 starts and looks suited by good to firm ground, recording two wins and a third from four runs. His recent form of 100925 is a mixed bag yet he has dropped to a workable mark of 87. David O'Meara, who has a solid 15% strike rate at Leicester from 195 runs with an A/E of 0.92, sends him out, and the trainer and jockey partnership stands at 741/4897 (15%) with an A/E of 0.89. Daniel Tudhope, with a 15% strike rate at the track from 122 rides and an A/E of 0.75, takes the ride on this hold-up performer who usually produces its effort late. He has no course form on record.
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4Quantum Power61/100
Quantum Power is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 411196 and six wins from 13 starts overall. He drops back to 5f having won four times at the trip from eight attempts, and he has shown strong form on good to firm with three wins from four starts. The Tom Clover yard holds a 16% strike rate at Leicester from 32 runs with an A/E of 1.05, and the trainer and jockey combination reads 18/100 (18%) with an A/E of 0.97. David Egan rides, this being the colt's first run at the track. He is a hold-up performer who usually produces its effort late.
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5Forager60/100
Forager is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after a recent win, with figures of 6-9741. He has already shown he handles good to firm ground well with four wins from nine runs and has won five times at this trip from 16 attempts. The Simon Pearce yard has a respectable 11% strike rate at Leicester from nine runs with an A/E of 1.29, while the trainer and jockey partnership is 17/98 (17%) with an A/E of 1.11 and a healthy +£38.40 LSP. Jack Mitchell, who has a 19% strike rate at the track from 140 rides and an A/E of 1.29, takes the mount. This hold-up performer who usually produces its effort late makes his first visit to Leicester, which is simply unknown rather than a negative.
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6Germanic54/100
Germanic is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with figures of 1-9100 and was well held on his only previous run here, finishing fifth. He has won over today's trip but has failed to place in two runs on good to firm ground. The Julie Camacho yard has a 15% strike rate at Leicester from 67 runs with an A/E of 1.04, though the trainer and jockey combination stands at 0/30 (0%) with an A/E of 0.00. He is a hold-up performer.
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7Seven Questions52/100
Seven Questions is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just one visit, with a solid course record. His recent form is patchy with figures of 417004 and only one win from the last 12 starts. The Robert Cowell yard holds a modest 10% strike rate at Leicester from 117 runs with an A/E of 0.8, while the trainer and jockey combination is 8/43 (19%) with an A/E of 1.15. He races prominently, usually handily on or close to the lead, and is dropping in class.
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8Straight Ahead50/100
Straight Ahead is a fair 3yo who has been busy this year and shown consistent form without winning since landing a 5f success last season, with figures of 482268. He has a solid record on good to firm, placing on all three starts on the surface, and is proven at today's trip. The Craig Lidster yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Leicester from 14 runs with an A/E of 0.7. This hold-up performer makes his first run at the track.
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9Desert Treasure46/100
Desert Treasure is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, winning twice from seven starts. He has run well enough on his last two outings recorded as -07727 to suggest he remains competitive in this company, though his recent efforts have lacked a decisive kick. The William Haggas yard maintains a 15% strike rate at Leicester from 355 runs with an A/E of 0.79. This front-runner tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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10Almaty Star42/100
Almaty Star is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with figures of 210830 and ran respectably when fourth over course and distance on his only visit here. He has won five times at this trip but is 0-7 on good to firm ground and showed little spark when last seen. The Robert Cowell yard records a 10% strike rate at Leicester from 117 runs with an A/E of 0.8. He is a hold-up performer.
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11Winchurch42/100
Winchurch is a fair performer who has won both starts over this trip on good to firm and showed his liking for Leicester when scoring on his only visit here. He has been in and out this year with a 141080 record but possesses solid placed form on this ground. The Michael Appleby yard has a modest 9% strike rate at the track from 391 runs with an A/E of 0.86. This hold-up performer is dropping in class.
KTB verdict
Tiva is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with five wins over the trip from 22 starts and a good record on good to firm, he is capable of winning in this grade when on song despite some inconsistency in his 631410 figures. The combination of O'Meara's solid Leicester record and Whiteley's eye-catching course strike-rate adds to the appeal for this hold-up type who should be suited by the strong pace. Main dangers are headed by Brummell, who has been knocking at the door and has a good trip record, while Ziggy's Triton is on a workable mark and Quantum Power and Forager also have solid claims if the race falls their way.
KTB Selection Tiva
This is the narrative read of the 3:51 Leicester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leicester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leicester results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Hold-up horses such as Tiva, Ziggy's Triton, Quantum Power and Forager are favoured by the strong pace that could collapse late.
How many wins has Tiva recorded over this trip?
Tiva has won five times over this trip from 22 starts.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Leicester in this field?
William Haggas has a 15% strike rate at Leicester from 355 runs, matching the 15% figures posted by David O'Meara and Julie Camacho from their respective samples.
Who has course form at Leicester among the field?
Seven Questions has won here from one visit, Germanic has finished fifth once, Almaty Star has finished fourth once, and Winchurch has won here from one visit.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Germanic and Seven Questions are dropping in class, along with Winchurch.
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