3:55 Worcester
This Class 5 novices' limited handicap hurdle over 2m7f at Worcester on good ground features an eleven-runner field where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are headed by Daaris on 66, followed closely by Crafty Gael on 64, with French Diablo, Brionywells and Athena's Dream all on 56-57. The KTB numbers point to a competitive race in which recent consistency, trip suitability and Worcester form will be key, though the overall yard and jockey records at the track are mixed.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one horse is expected to secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Tis But A Scratch is the only confirmed front-runner and should be allowed to dictate matters from the outset. Most of the field, including the top two in the market, are held-up types who will be produced late, so the key question is whether anything can bridge the gap to the clear leader in the straight on this stamina test.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Daaris KTB Selection66/100
Daaris is a useful performer on his best days and showed a solid sequence of placed efforts prior to a modest return last time out. He steps up markedly in trip today, having been seen only over 2m1f on his latest start, and this will be his first run at Worcester. The yard has no prior runners here while jockey Lee Edwards operates at a 6% strike rate from 247 rides at the track. Usually held up, he produces his effort late. With recent form figures of 3334/8 he remains an interesting contender as the KTB Selection.
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2Crafty Gael64/100
Crafty Gael is a fair performer who has shown consistent form of late with a second and a third on his last two starts. He has already placed over this course on good ground and both his yard and rider hold strong 22% strike rates here. Stepping up to 2m7f for the first time asks a fresh question of him. Usually held up, he produces his effort late. His recent form figures read 008-32 and with trainer and jockey figures of 25% (A/E 0.96) in combination he is sure to be prominent in the betting.
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3French Diablo57/100
French Diablo is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and recent efforts, showing a clear uptick when winning at this track last month before pulling up on softer ground at Fontwell. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate from 19 runs here while David Bass is a regular with a 13% record from 219 rides at Worcester. He steps up in trip today for the first time which remains an unknown. Usually races prominently, on or close to the lead. With form figures of 8-P31P he could capitalise on an uncontested lead if allowed his own way.
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4Brionywells56/100
Brionywells is a fair performer who has already won over this trip and showed solid placed form when last seen over 2m6f. A course winner here from three runs, he acts on good ground with two wins from eight attempts. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Worcester, the yard at 11% (A/E 0.87) and the 3lb claimer at 9% (A/E 0.76). Usually held up, he produces his effort late with high confidence. Recent form of 8-1143 underlines his place claims.
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5Athena's Dream56/100
Athena's Dream is a fair performer who has been consistent this year with three placed efforts from her last five starts. She drops back in trip from 3m2f to 2m7f where she has already shown placed form once without winning, while first-time headgear is now tried to sharpen her up. The trainer holds a modest 5% strike rate at Worcester from 20 runs and the 7lb claimer has only one ride here so far. Usually held up with high confidence, her recent form reads 4-2352 and she remains competitive on good ground.
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6Forest Spirit50/100
Forest Spirit is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. He has been placed once from three runs at Worcester and is competitive on good ground, though he is now stepping up in trip for the first time. Trainer holds a solid 17% strike rate here while the jockey is operating at 22%. Usually held up with high confidence and recent form of 3-2743.
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7Butchers Bill48/100
Butchers Bill is a fair performer on his day but has been out of form lately with three pulled-up efforts in his last five starts. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground and at today's trip without winning, yet his two runs at Worcester have produced no better than fifth. The yard's modest strike-rate here and the jockey's low A/E figure add to the negatives. Usually held up.
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8Could Be You47/100
Could Be You is a fair performer who has struggled to complete races of late with a recent form string of P0P9-F. Only one previous run at Worcester resulted in a fall and the step up to 2m7f today asks a fresh question. Trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate here from a large sample while the jockey is operating at 8%.
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9Alex The Great41/100
Alex The Great is a modest performer with a long record of mostly modest efforts and no win in the last 45 runs. He steps up markedly in trip today having last been seen over 1m6f, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have established but modest records at Worcester while the horse himself has shown little on good ground or in his one run here. Usually held up.
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10Ramaah37/100
Ramaah is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with three placed efforts from his last five starts. He has shown he can be competitive on good ground and has been placed both times he has tried today's trip, though he is yet to win at the distance. The trainer has a modest 3% strike rate at Worcester while the jockey sits on 5%. Usually held up.
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11Tis But A Scratch33/100
Tis But A Scratch is a modest performer with a long record of being competitive without winning. He has placed on good ground and at today's trip but is now 0-23 and coming off a break. Trainer is still seeking a first Worcester winner from 16 attempts while the jockey's modest strike-rate here is in line with market expectation. The only front-runner, he is set to make the running.
KTB verdict
Daaris is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer on his best days with a solid recent sequence of placed efforts, and the marked step up in trip looks sure to play to his strengths as a late runner in a race with an uncontested leader. His ability sets the standard among the principals. The main dangers are Crafty Gael, who brings strong Worcester placed form and yard/jockey statistics, and French Diablo, who won here last month and could take advantage of his prominent run-style against the lone leader. Brionywells and Athena's Dream add depth to what looks a competitive heat.
KTB Selection Daaris
This is the narrative read of the 3:55 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Tis But A Scratch is the only confirmed front-runner and should be allowed to dictate from the front in a lone-leader pace shape.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
Four of the five principals – Daaris, Crafty Gael, Brionywells and Athena's Dream – are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse won at Worcester last month?
French Diablo showed a clear uptick when winning at this track last month.
Who is the only horse in the field wearing first-time headgear?
Athena's Dream is tried in first-time headgear.
Which runner has course-and-distance winning form?
Brionywells has already won over this trip and is a course winner here from three runs.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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