4:38 Hamilton
This Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip at Hamilton on soft ground brings together eight modest performers, several of whom have shown an ability to handle the surface and the track. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 56 and 45, reflecting a competitive but largely exposed field where recent consistency and course form will be key. Vince L'Amour tops the KTB figures but arrives with a string of modest efforts, while the likes of Thunderstorm Katie, Great Profit and Impressor all have solid course records to call upon.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, and Solid Bond is the only front-runner in the field. With no obvious pressure expected from the six held-up types, Solid Bond should be allowed an uncontested lead. That sets up a race where the key question is whether the leader can kick on from the front and prove hard to peg back on this soft surface, or whether one of the patient runners can close the gap in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Vince L'Amour KTB Selection56/100
Vince L'Amour is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He has won on soft ground and at this trip but his two efforts here have been well beaten. The Tim Easterby and David Allan combination both operate at a steady 15% strike rate at Hamilton, with the trainer showing an A/E of 0.93 from 643 runs and the jockey 0.97 from 483 rides. A 5-year-old with a recent form line of 902086, he is held up and usually produces his effort late. He has recorded 2 wins from 6 starts on soft going.
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2Thunderstorm Katie54/100
Thunderstorm Katie is a modest performer who has won once from 12 starts at Hamilton and drops back to her winning 5f trip today. She has been in and out this year and has failed to place in four runs on soft ground. The yard and jockey both have solid records at the track, with Jim Goldie posting a 10% strike rate and Lauren Young a 13% strike rate from her 71 rides at Hamilton. A 5-year-old with recent form figures of 291624, she is held up and produces her effort late with high confidence. She steps down in class having won over course and distance previously.
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3Great Profit50/100
Great Profit is a modest performer who has been consistent this year and arrives in decent form after a win and two places from his last four starts. He has shown he can handle soft ground and has already placed over this trip, while his two runs here produced a second and a fourth. The trainer's record at Hamilton is too small a sample to judge but Barry McHugh has a solid 10% strike rate from 219 rides at the track. A 3-year-old with form figures of 222130, he is held up and produces his effort late with high confidence. He has been placed once from two starts on soft ground.
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4Impressor48/100
Impressor is a limited performer on the balance of his ratings and overall record yet he has shown he can still pop up in this grade. He has won four times from 17 starts at Hamilton and also has a solid record on soft ground with four wins from 17 runs. The yard holds a respectable 17% strike-rate here while Connor Beasley is a regular at the track with a 13% success rate. A 9-year-old with recent form of 360801, he is held up and usually produces his effort late. He steps up in class but arrives with strong course statistics.
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5Solid Bond48/100
Solid Bond is a limited horse who has shown just one win from 12 starts and mixed form this year. He has placed once from two runs on soft ground and has scored at this trip in the past, though he has been below form on his last two outings. The trainer holds a modest 9% strike-rate here while the jockey has a solid 12% record from limited rides. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he steps up in class.
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6Roach Power46/100
Roach Power is a modest performer who has been out of form for most of this year with recent figures of 740707. He has won six times at this trip and shown some ability on soft ground with two wins and three places from eleven starts. Hamilton record reads 3rd and 5th from two runs while the trainer remains winless from six attempts here. A 7-year-old who is held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, he drops in class.
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7Supremissy46/100
Supremissy is a limited performer who has shown some ability at this track, finishing placed on two of four starts here. He has a win over today's trip on his record but his only try on soft ground brought no reward. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 12% strike rate at Hamilton. A 3-year-old who is held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, he steps up in class.
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8Never Dark45/100
Never Dark is a limited performer who has won twice at Hamilton and twice more on soft ground. Recent form has been patchy and the yard's modest strike-rate here suggests he will need to improve on his latest efforts. Trip and ground look fine but overall he looks vulnerable in this field. A 9-year-old who is held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, he has recent form figures of 726370.
KTB verdict
Vince L'Amour tops the KTB Fit Scores at 56 and is named the selection. He has won on soft ground and at this trip, and the combination of Tim Easterby and David Allan both hold steady 15% strike rates at Hamilton. The main dangers are headed by Thunderstorm Katie, who drops back to her winning 5f trip and boasts a course win from 12 starts, and Great Profit, who arrives in decent form with a win and two places from his last four starts plus placed efforts at the track. Impressor cannot be discounted either given his four wins from 17 starts at Hamilton and proven record on soft ground.
KTB Selection Vince L'Amour
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 28 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Vince L'Amour | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Thunderstorm Katie | 11/2 | 7Bet |
| Great Profit | 10/1 | 7Bet |
| Impressor | 7/2 | 7Bet |
| Solid Bond | 12/1 | William Hill |
| Roach Power | 3/1 | 7Bet |
| Supremissy | 5/1 | 7Bet |
| Never Dark | 18/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:38 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hamilton results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to get the uncontested lead?
Solid Bond is the only front-runner in the field and the pace shape indicates a lone leader with high confidence.
How many wins has Impressor recorded at Hamilton?
Impressor has won four times from 17 starts at Hamilton.
Which runner has the best recent consistency according to the supplied form?
Great Profit has a win and two places from his last four starts.
What is the strike rate of the trainer and jockey combination for Never Dark at Hamilton?
The trainer and jockey combination for Never Dark shows a 9% strike rate at Hamilton from 22 runs.
How many of the principals are held-up runners?
All four principals — Vince L'Amour, Thunderstorm Katie, Great Profit and Impressor — are held-up runners.
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