4:04 Hamilton
This Class 3 handicap over the minimum trip at Hamilton on soft ground brings together a field of ten where the majority are stepping up in class. The KTB Fit Scores point to a competitive but not overly deep race, with City Captain heading the numbers on the back of strong course form. Several runners share similar recent levels of ability, making the tactical element and how they handle the surface particularly relevant.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy or well positioned early could prove decisive. With multiple hold-up performers in the line-up, including the selection, the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line in the final couple of furlongs. The key question is whether those racing prominently can maintain their position or if the closers will find the gaps on this soft surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1City Captain KTB Selection64/100
City Captain is a fair performer who has won two of his three starts at Hamilton and holds strong course connections. He has also shown he handles soft ground well with two wins and a placing from three runs. The combination of trainer Harriet Bethell and jockey Daniel Tudhope carries real weight here, with the yard recording a 43% strike rate at the track and an A/E of 1.8 from just seven runs. Dropping back to 5f today asks a fresh question as he was unsuccessful in his only previous attempt at the trip, yet his held-up style should suit a race that is set to be tactical. Stepping up in class adds another layer, but his record at this venue makes him the one to beat.
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2Topwarrior57/100
Topwarrior is a fair performer who won on soft ground over 5f as a 2yo but has struggled since, finishing down the field in all four starts this year. Dropping back to his winning trip looks a plus and he has handled soft going in the past with one win and a placing from two runs. Trainer Ralph Beckett has a strong 30% strike rate at Hamilton with an A/E of 1.32 from 23 runs, though jockey Hector Crouch is less prolific here with an 11% strike rate. Usually held up, he should be suited by a steadily-run race. Stepping up in class adds to the task but the return to minimum trip and soft ground offers encouragement.
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3Temple of Athena56/100
Temple of Athena is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, placing in three of her last six starts. She has shown she handles soft ground with a win and a placing from three runs, and she has won at this trip from 13 attempts. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Hamilton from 210 runs while the 3lb claimer Tom Kiely-Marshall has a strong 18% record from 22 rides at the track. Usually racing handily, her prominent style could be an asset in a race that lacks an obvious leader. Stepping up in class is the main concern but her recent form keeps her firmly in the mix.
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4Gaeli55/100
Gaeli is a useful performer who has won at this trip from six attempts and showed respectable form when placed in stronger company earlier in the year. The recent string of lesser efforts leaves him with something to prove at present. Trainer Philip Kirby has a modest 7% strike-rate at Hamilton from 72 runs while Kevin Stott rides the track with a solid 17% success rate from 216 rides. Typically settling in midfield, his run-style carries limited evidence but could see him well placed if the race develops steadily. Dropping in class is in his favour but he remains unproven on soft ground.
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5Parisiac52/100
Parisiac is a fair sort who has won twice at Hamilton from nine runs and also has a solid record at this trip with seven wins from 33 starts. He acts on soft ground with two wins and six places from 11 attempts. The yard holds a 12 percent strike rate here from a big sample of 661 runs while the 3 lb claimer Jack Nicholls is operating at a 24 percent strike rate from 37 rides. Usually held up, he should be suited by the anticipated tactical pace. Stepping up in class is the obvious negative but his course record and going affinity make him dangerous.
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6Jordan Electrics51/100
Jordan Electrics is a fair 10-year-old with a strong record here, including seven wins from 12 starts at Hamilton. Recent form of 313001 includes a course victory and he has won at today's trip seven times from 23 runs while showing he can win on soft ground. The trainer's 10 percent strike rate from 1712 runs at the track and the jockey's 14 percent from 907 rides add steady rather than sparkling support.
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7Francisco's Piece51/100
Francisco's Piece is a fair performer with a solid recent record that includes two placed efforts in the last five starts. He drops back to 5f today having already won three times at the trip, and he has shown he handles soft ground with a win and three other places from seven attempts. The yard has a 10% strike rate at Hamilton from 49 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first success from ten rides here.
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8Changeofmind48/100
Changeofmind is a fair performer who has run well here before, finishing second on his latest visit to Hamilton. He has won at this trip and has shown he can be competitive on soft ground, though wins have been scarce of late. The trainer's modest record at the track is partly offset by the jockey's solid strike-rate here.
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9Dandy Magic46/100
Dandy Magic is a fair performer who has run well here in the past, winning one of three starts at Hamilton. He drops back to 5f today having won at the trip before, though his two runs on soft ground have produced no win or place. The trainer holds a 10% strike rate from a huge sample at the track while the jockey is operating at 13% from 71 rides.
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10Copper Knight45/100
Copper Knight is a modest 12-year-old who has dropped to a more realistic level after a string of ordinary efforts this season. He does have solid form on soft ground with two wins from six starts and has won eight times at this trip overall. The yard has a decent record here but the jockey's strike-rate is low.
KTB verdict
City Captain stands out as the KTB Selection on the back of his excellent record at Hamilton, where he has won two of his three starts, allied to his proven ability on soft ground. The 4-year-old's held-up style should be well suited to a steadily-run race that is short on early pace, and the trainer-jockey combination adds further layers of confidence. His main dangers are likely to come from Parisiac, who also boasts a strong Hamilton record and acts on the ground, and Temple of Athena, whose prominent racing style and recent consistency make her a live threat in a tactical affair.
KTB Selection City Captain
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 28 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| City Captain | 2/1 | Bet365 |
| Topwarrior | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Temple of Athena | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Gaeli | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Parisiac | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Jordan Electrics | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Francisco's Piece | 10/3 | 7Bet |
| Changeofmind | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Dandy Magic | 11/2 | 7Bet |
| Copper Knight | 12/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 4:04 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hamilton results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Hamilton?
Jordan Electrics has the strongest record with seven wins from 12 starts at the track.
How many runners are stepping up in class?
Six runners are stepping up in class: City Captain, Topwarrior, Temple of Athena, Parisiac, Copper Knight and one other implied by the class moves listed.
Which horse is unproven on soft ground?
Gaeli has no runs on soft ground and is therefore unproven on the going.
Who has the highest strike rate at Hamilton among the trainers in this race?
Harriet Bethell has a 43% strike rate at Hamilton from seven runs.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at the track among those riding in this contest?
Jack Nicholls has a 24% strike rate at Hamilton from 37 rides.
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