4:40 Wexford
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race at Wexford over 2m1f110y on soft ground brings together an 11-runner field mixing debutants, lightly raced types and a few with placed bumper or jumps form. The KTB Fit ratings highlight Payslip as the clear top pick on 68, with a cluster of four others between 51 and 57 underlining how open the rest of the race looks on paper. Overall the numbers point to a contest where experience and the ability to handle the step up in trip or the ground will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with only medium confidence, as the evidence for a clear front-runner is thin. Payslip is the one horse with a noted tendency to make the running or race prominently, while Lest Ye Forget is likely to be on or close to that pace. Most of the remainder, including Socrates Smiled on debut and several held-up types such as Back In Favour, Slaney Valley and Lake Pippaway, should settle further back, so the key question is whether the early gallop will be strong enough to expose those stepping up in trip on soft ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Payslip KTB Selection68/100
Payslip has shown placed form in two of his three starts including a recent second. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has not tried before and goes in first-time headgear. The trainer's 14% strike rate at Wexford is in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey has a 17% strike rate at the track from a small sample. As a front-runner he is likely to set or share the pace in a race where the shape remains uncertain. The soft ground is unproven but his consistency so far gives him a solid platform. Overall he emerges as the one with the most tangible racecourse evidence.
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2Socrates Smiled57/100
Socrates Smiled is a debutant with very limited pedigree information, the dam having produced just one previous runner that failed to win. The yard has a 21% strike rate at Wexford from 38 runs, above their 8% at other tracks, while the jockey is even more effective here with a 31% strike rate from 16 rides. With no other racecourse form or sales price supplied, this remains a low-confidence profile. He could be anything but the absence of public trials makes him hard to weigh up against those who have already shown their hand. The trainer and jockey combination at this venue is the main positive.
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3Lest Ye Forget55/100
Lest Ye Forget showed modest form when fifth on debut over 2m. The yard has a 20% strike rate at Wexford from five runs while the jockey has had only two rides here which is too small a sample to judge. Lightly raced with a small sample overall and stepping up in trip today so read with caution. His prominent run-style should see him race handily in a race where pace is expected to be tentative. The soft ground is unproven but his debut effort at least provides a baseline. Connections will hope the extra distance brings improvement.
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4B U Train54/100
Declan Queally has a 16% strike rate at Wexford from 95 runs, in line with his record elsewhere, while his son has a 23% strike rate here from 39 rides, above his 9% at other tracks. This newcomer carries first-time headgear on debut and cost a useful sum as a yearling. The family has produced winners but the overall picture remains tentative given the low data confidence. He could improve for the headgear and the step up in trip but lacks any public form to go on. The yard and jockey combination at Wexford offers some encouragement.
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5Certavi Et Vici51/100
Lightly raced with just one run to go on and that recent third came over a shorter trip. Steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both have a 0% strike rate at Wexford from their respective 13 runs and 6 rides. His mid-division run-style suggests he will settle in midfield in a race where the pace is expected to be only modest. The soft ground is unproven and the lack of course form adds to the unknowns. He showed some ability on debut but has plenty to find on balance.
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6Morning Rose51/100
Morning Rose is a debutant with a strong pedigree as a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Guerrier Rose and out of a dam who has produced six winners from seven runners. She cost a significant sum as a yearling and wears first-time headgear. The Emmet Mullins yard posts a 15% strike rate at Wexford from 26 runs while jockey Mr J L Gleeson is 23% here from 26 rides, both figures in line with their records elsewhere, though overall data confidence remains low.
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7Back In Favour48/100
Back In Favour won a bumper on debut then showed fair placed form in two subsequent maiden hurdles before a lesser effort last time. He steps up in trip today to a distance that remains untested. The yard operates at a 5% strike rate at Wexford from 22 runs while the jockey is 1-10 at the track. His held-up run-style with high confidence means he will come from off the pace.
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8Better Be Elusive44/100
Lightly raced after just one run and with no official rating to go on. The trip is a fresh question today having only tried 2m so far while the soft ground remains an unknown on such limited evidence. Trainer records a 5% strike rate at Wexford from 42 runs which sits in line with their overall figure. He is a held-up type on limited evidence.
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9Itsasham40/100
Itsasham is a debutant with a modest pedigree link through half-brother San Carlos who won twice from six starts. The dam has produced two winners from eight runners overall which offers some encouragement on paper. Trainer and jockey both carry 0% strike rates at Wexford from 10 runs and 26 rides respectively.
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10Slaney Valley39/100
Slaney Valley showed nothing on his sole start when pulled up over 2m here on this track. The yard has only four runs at Wexford so the sample is too small to judge while the jockey is 0 from 12 at the course. Data confidence is low and this is a fresh question stepping up in trip. He is a held-up type on limited evidence.
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11Lake Pippaway36/100
Lake Pippaway has shown little in two starts so far with a pulled-up effort and then a well-beaten seventh. The trip is stepped up today and remains an unknown. Trainer Terence O'Brien operates at a 10% strike rate here which is in line with his overall record while jockey Kevin Healy has a 7% strike rate at Wexford. He is a held-up type with medium confidence.
KTB verdict
Payslip is the KTB Selection. He has the strongest recent placed form of the principals, a front-running style that should suit the tentative pace shape, and the benefit of first-time headgear. The drop back in trip looks a sensible move while the Cromwell/Lavery combination has solid enough Wexford figures. Main dangers are the well-bred debutant Morning Rose who could be anything for Mullins and Gleeson, the experienced but trip-untested Back In Favour, and Socrates Smiled who brings the best trainer-jockey course stats but no racecourse evidence.
KTB Selection Payslip
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:03am, 25 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Payslip | 5/2 | BetTom, 1:03am |
| Socrates Smiled | 3/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Lest Ye Forget | 16/1 | Bet Victor, 1:03am |
| B U Train | 7/1 | BetTom, 1:03am |
| Certavi Et Vici | 7/1 | Bet Victor, 1:03am |
| Morning Rose | 11/4 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Back In Favour | 18/1 | Bet Victor, 1:03am |
| Better Be Elusive | 80/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Itsasham | 50/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Slaney Valley | 125/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
| Lake Pippaway | 50/1 | Bet365, 1:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 4:40 Wexford. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wexford racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wexford results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Wexford racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and why is it the selection?
Payslip on 68/100; it has shown placed form in two of three starts including a recent second and is the clear top pick on the numbers.
How is the pace expected to unfold and which horses will be prominent?
Pace is tentative with medium confidence and only thin evidence for a front-runner; Payslip tends to make the running or race on the pace while Lest Ye Forget is prominent.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Payslip, B U Train and Morning Rose.
Which debutants have the strongest pedigree notes?
Morning Rose is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Guerrier Rose out of a dam with six winners from seven runners; Socrates Smiled has very limited pedigree information with the dam producing one previous non-winner.
Which horses have no experience of soft ground?
Payslip, Lest Ye Forget, Back In Favour, Itsasham and Slaney Valley have no runs on soft and are unproven on the ground.
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