What is Mr E P O'Brien's strike rate?

Mr E P O'Brien has won 8 of 206 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 3.9% (as at 31 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

What is Mr E P O'Brien's Fair A/E?

0.72, from 206 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Mr E P O'Brien

206 rides in the last 5 seasons · 156 individual horses

As at 31 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 38 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)

from 1 Jan 2022

8–206

Wins / Runs

3.9%

Strike rate

n=206

35 (17%)

Placed

0.72

Fair A/E

n=206 · 0.58 incl. margin

−151.75

£1 level stake

n=206 at SP · −73.7%

£120k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 40 times a season, winning on 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.72). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 7% off breaks of two months or more (57 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 206 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 31 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 7% First rides: 4%

The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 7% (n=57, Fair A/E 1.24). The market has consistently overbet claiming rides: 3.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.70 and −147.25 to a £1 stake over 196 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. The rider also reads well off a 61-180-day break (10%, n=30) and on Soft going (8.1%, n=86). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 0% over 38 rides, 3.9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.31 across 66 rides (1.5% strike, −62.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Coolmore N.h. Sires Irish Ebf Mares Flat Race at Navan (Nov 2017, £23,600).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

4%+0.1

n=151 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −118.75

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

0%−3.9

n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7%+3.1

n=57 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −24.50

When favourite

33.3%

n=3 · A/E 1.30 · £1 +0.25

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

3.6%−0.3

n=196 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −147.25

Big fields · 14+ runners

1.1%−2.8

n=89 · A/E 0.27 · £1 −79.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

12.5%+8.6

n=8 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −2.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 61-180-day break 10% vs 3.9% · n=30

On Soft going 8.1% vs 3.9% · n=86

On Good to Soft going 0% vs 3.9% · n=38

On Heavy going 0% vs 3.9% · n=30

Over 2m1f – 2m4f 1.5% vs 3.9% · n=66

With horses switching code 1.7% vs 3.9% · n=59

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

NH Flat 120 6 5% −82.75

Flat 41 1 2.4% −36.00

Hurdle 24 0 0% −24.00

Chase 21 1 4.8% −9.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 86 7 8.1% −43.75

Good 45 1 2.2% −33.00

Good to Soft 38 0 0% −38.00

Heavy 30 0 0% −30.00

Standard (AW) 6 0 0% −6.00

Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 23 0 0% −23.00

Cork 20 0 0% −20.00

Limerick 15 1 6.7% −10.00

Ballinrobe 14 1 7.1% −10.75

Clonmel 14 1 7.1% −4.00

Listowel 11 0 0% −11.00

Kilbeggan 10 0 0% −10.00

Thurles 10 0 0% −10.00

Fairyhouse 10 2 20% +7.50

Galway 10 0 0% −10.00

Leopardstown 9 0 0% −9.00

Tipperary 9 0 0% −9.00

Naas 8 2 25% +6.50

Navan 7 0 0% −7.00

Killarney 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 8 1 12.5% −2.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 3 1 33.3% 1.30 +0.25

2nd–3rd fav 29 4 13.8% 0.90 −8.50

4th–6th fav 55 3 5.5% 0.89 −24.50

7th+ in betting 119 0 0% 0.00 −119.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

93.3% completed · 45 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 21 100% 0 0 0 0 0

Hurdle 24 87.5% 1 0 2 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Penelope's Charm (IRE) 5 0 1 17 Jan 25

Grainne A Chroi (IRE) 4 0 2 21 Dec 24

Russellsbelle (IRE) 4 0 2 23 Sep 22

Suresuresure (IRE) 3 0 0 29 Nov 25

Absolute Bliss (GB) 3 0 1 28 May 25

Lisleigh Lad (IRE) 3 1 1 19 Jan 25

Chosen Thyme (IRE) 3 0 1 7 Dec 23

Touch Of Oscar (IRE) 3 0 1 16 Feb 23

Ah Fuhgeddaboudit (IRE) 3 0 2 27 Oct 22

Dorans Weir (IRE) 3 1 1 30 Sep 22

Time For Talking (IRE) 2 0 2 2 Jul 26

Diamond Secret (FR) 2 0 0 18 Apr 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 156 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1506940000080

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

TrainerRWSR£1

Philip Fenton 27 1 3.7% −23.75

Richard John O'Brien 19 3 15.8% +3.50

Michael Hourigan 12 1 8.3% −6.50

Robert Tyner 9 0 0% −9.00

Daniel John Howard 7 0 0% −7.00

Paul O'Flynn 7 0 0% −7.00

Miss M Harding 7 0 0% −7.00

D E Fitzgerald 5 0 0% −5.00

Daniel William O'Sullivan 5 0 0% −5.00

John Patrick Ryan 5 0 0% −5.00

Denis Gerard Hogan 4 0 0% −4.00

Richard Hennessy 4 0 0% −4.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£418k

Prize money

2019

Best season · 5 wins

Crackerdancer (IRE) — Coolmore N.h. Sires Irish Ebf Mares Flat Race (listed) Navan · Nov 2017 · Listed

£23,600

Dorans Weir (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Total Enjoyment Mares Flat Race (Listed) Fairyhouse · Apr 2022 · Listed

£17,700

Bothair Clei (IRE) — Guinness Veterans Handicap Chase Limerick · Dec 2015

£11,385

Notable horses

Bothair Clei (IRE) Crackerdancer (IRE) Wee Tiger (IRE) The Getaway Star (IRE) Holly Flight (FR) West Cork Wildway (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Fame And Glory (GB) 14.3% · 1–7

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,209 runs since 2008 (504 horses).

Getaway (GER) 0% · 0–7

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,951 runs since 2008 (1,029 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.3% from 133.

Mahler (GB) 14.3% · 1–7

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,859 runs since 2008 (785 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Make Believe (GB) 0% · 0–7

Progeny have won 11.1% of 3,613 runs since 2008 (298 horses).

Mount Nelson (GB) 0% · 0–7

Progeny have won 9.9% of 6,269 runs since 2008 (538 horses).

Yeats (IRE) 0% · 0–6

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,831 runs since 2008 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 818.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 31 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 653 · newest first

The latest 50 of 653 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 25 April 2011 to 23 September 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

23 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Mega Shoc (IRE)T: Rory Anthony Devine Paul Moynihan (Ex VFI President) Memorial Flat Race20f · Good · 11 ran 6th 80/1

20 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Boomtown Rock (IRE)T: Richard Hennessy Kinisla Farm & Home Store (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good · 13 ran 6th 66/1

10 Jul 26 Cork The West A Yeats (IRE)T: L J Archdeacon Racing Again July 24th Fillies Flat Race17f · Good · 16 ran 15th 33/1

02 Jul 26 Limerick Time For Talking (IRE)T: Richard Hennessy INPBA Supporting Irish Racing Flat Race (In Memory Of Jerry McDonnell)16.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 6/1

18 Jun 26 Leopardstown Wonderwalk (IRE)T: V C Ward BOYLE Sports Squad Builder (Q.R.) Maiden15f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 14th 300/1

15 Jun 26 Kilbeggan Grabat (FR)T: Philip Fenton Midlands National On 10th July (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 11th 12/1

15 Jun 26 Kilbeggan Great Entirely (IRE)T: Paul Stephen Kiely Old Harbour Bar Tullamore (Q.R.) Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 5th 22/1

08 Jun 26 Roscommon Silent Flight (IRE)T: Philip M Byrne Roscommon (Q.R.) Handicap Chase (0-100)21.5f · Yielding To Soft · 16 ran 3rd 16/1

01 Jun 26 Listowel Rusty Finure (IRE)T: Daniel John Howard Bryan MacMahon (Pro/Am) Flat Race20f · Yielding · 10 ran 7th 200/1

25 May 26 Ballinrobe Time For Talking (IRE)T: Richard Hennessy McHale Orbital Flat Race16.5f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 12/1

11 May 26 Killarney Ebenezer Scrooge (IRE)T: Joseph M Daly Thorn Plant Hire Hunters Chase23f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 6th 200/1

02 May 26 Punchestown Mia In Milan (IRE)T: D E Fitzgerald Sebden Steel Celebrating 30 Years In Business (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Yielding · 16 ran 10th 66/1

01 May 26 Punchestown Rattledelatch (IRE)T: John Queally Stables Restaurant Naas Flat Race19f · Yielding · 21 ran 16th 200/1

18 Apr 26 Bellewstown Diamond Secret (FR)T: Philip Fenton Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction (Pro/Am) Flat Race17f · Yielding · 15 ran 6th 40/1

05 Apr 26 Cork Ludus Magnus (FR)T: Philip Fenton Ampion Ltd. Electrical And Testing (Pro/Am) Flat Race19f · Yielding · 16 ran 12th 11/2

12 Mar 26 Limerick Diamond Secret (FR)T: Philip Fenton Irish Stallion Farms EBF (Pro/Am) Auction Flat Race17f · Heavy · 7 ran 5th 28/1

19 Feb 26 Thurles Island Mccoo (IRE)T: Donncha Duggan BOYLE Sports (Q.R.) Handicap Chase (0-100)21.5f · Soft To Heavy · 16 ran 8th 16/1

31 Dec 25 Punchestown Nells Princess (IRE)T: Garrett James Power Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race18.5f · Yielding · 13 ran 5th 16/1

26 Dec 25 Limerick Le Roi Du Livet (FR)T: Philip Fenton Signsplus Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 17 ran 11th 18/1

02 Dec 25 Clonmel Crypto Crash (GB)T: David Kenneth Budds Thanks To All For Your Support In 2025 (Q.R.) Maiden Hurdle19.5f · Heavy · 18 ran 16th 250/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mr E P O'Brien's strike rate?: Mr E P O'Brien has won 8 of 206 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 3.9% (as at 31 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Mr E P O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 0.72, from 206 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.