5:00 Kempton (AW)
This Class 5 apprentice handicap over 7f at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together nine modest performers in a race that lacks a natural leader. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Silver Trumpet heading the numbers on 61, followed by Timely Affair on 57, Receipt on 55 and Lady Manzor on 53. Most of the field are exposed handicappers with placed form rather than progressive profiles, and the apprentice riders add another layer to a tactical contest on the all-weather.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in the field the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. The majority of runners, including the top four in the KTB Fit Scores, are held-up types who produce their efforts late, so the key question is whether the race will develop enough pace for those coming from off the pace to make ground in the straight or whether those able to get a more prominent position can steal an advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Silver Trumpet KTB Selection61/100
Silver Trumpet is a fair handicapper who has shown consistent form this year with a string of placed efforts and a recent win. He has solid course experience having won from three runs at Kempton and handles standard to slow going with a win and a place from three starts. The trip suits as he has five wins from 24 attempts at 7f though the trainer's modest 9% strike rate at the track is a negative. From stall 1 he should be able to get a nice position early before delivering his effort late as is his usual style. The drop in class is another positive and the trainer-jockey combination has produced a solid 13% strike rate with an A/E of 1.38.
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2Timely Affair57/100
Timely Affair is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 133118 that includes three wins. He drops back to 7f today having won at the trip before and looks suited by the standard to slow surface on which he has already placed. Trainer William Knight has an 11 percent strike rate from 717 runs at Kempton while Toby Moore is on board from stall 9. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and should be suited by a steadily-run race. The placed effort on his only previous visit to this track adds to his claims in a race where being on the speed could be an advantage.
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3Receipt55/100
Receipt is a modest performer who has already shown he can win at this trip. He has been below form in two runs here on the all-weather and is 0-2 on standard to slow ground. The trainer's small-sample record at the track offers no guidance though the jockey has a strong 21% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 1.71. Usually held up, Receipt will be coming from off the pace in what is likely to be a tactical affair. Dropping in class is a positive but his lack of spark on this surface so far remains a concern.
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4Lady Manzor53/100
Lady Manzor is a modest performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year with a string of placed efforts. She has won over this trip and acts on standard to slow going with a solid record here at Kempton including one victory from seven runs. Trainer Amanda Perrett has a 12 percent strike rate from 750 runs at the track while 3lb claimer Charlie Tucker is aboard. Usually held up, she produces her effort late and should be suited by the steadily-run shape. From a low draw she can get a nice position before delivering her challenge.
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5Caragio52/100
Caragio is a modest performer who has won once here from four starts and also has a win on standard to slow going. Recent form of 215633 shows consistency without much spark and the first-time headgear is now applied after several placed efforts. Trainer holds an 11 percent strike rate at the track from nine runs while the jockey has no recorded rides here.
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6Arantes Nascimento49/100
Arantes Nascimento is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at Kempton. Recent form is patchy with a win sandwiched between a string of lesser efforts, though the course record of one from three offers some encouragement. Trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 990 runs here and the 5yo's overall exposed profile are both negatives.
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7Cuban Lady46/100
Cuban Lady is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, finishing second and sixth in her last two starts. She is unproven on standard to slow going and makes her first appearance at Kempton today. Trainer Patrick Chamings has a 7% strike rate from 428 runs at the track while jockey Isobelle Chalmers is also having her first ride here.
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8Strike43/100
Strike is a modest performer who has been a regular at this track without winning in eight runs here, though he has placed on three occasions. He steps up to 7f for the first time today after a string of consistent 6f efforts and has been placed twice at the trip without winning. Trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Kempton and the horse's placed-but-no-win record on standard to slow ground both point to a place possibility at best.
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9Nezeeh41/100
Nezeeh is a modest performer with a long losing run and recent form that has been poor. He has run twice at this track without placing and the yard's 4% strike-rate at Kempton offers little encouragement. Steps up to 7f for the first time in a while with no experience of standard to slow ground.
KTB verdict
Silver Trumpet is the KTB Selection. He arrives in solid form with a recent win and several placed efforts, boasts a good record at Kempton and on the surface, and drops in class from a handy draw. His held-up style should be suited by the steadily-run shape. The main dangers are Timely Affair, who brings strong recent winning form and a placed effort here, and Lady Manzor, who has been consistently placed and knows the track well. Receipt cannot be entirely ruled out on his best efforts but has questions to answer on this surface.
KTB Selection Silver Trumpet
This is the narrative read of the 5:00 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and why does it head the numbers?
Silver Trumpet has the highest KTB Fit Score on 61 because it is a fair handicapper showing consistent form this year with placed efforts and a recent win, has solid course experience at Kempton and handles the going.
How many of the field are usually held up according to the run-style data?
All nine runners are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
What is the course record for Silver Trumpet at Kempton?
Silver Trumpet has won from three runs at Kempton.
Which horse is making its first appearance at Kempton and is unproven on standard to slow ground?
Cuban Lady is making her first appearance at Kempton and has no runs on standard to slow going.
Which runner is having first-time headgear fitted and what is its course record here?
Caragio is having first-time headgear fitted and has won here from four starts.
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