6:15 Kempton (AW)
This Class 4 novice stakes over a mile at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together an 11-runner field featuring a mix of lightly raced types, debutants and a few with placed form to their name. The KTB Fit ratings point to a race with limited depth overall, headed by Sin City on 56, with the next four principals clustered between 52 and 49. Most runners arrive with very little racecourse evidence, making pedigree, connections and the yard's local record the main guides for the newcomers while the pace shape is described as tentative on medium confidence.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with only thin evidence of a confirmed front-runner. Sin City is the one horse noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, though that assessment carries low confidence given his limited starts. Several others including Kinetic Impact and El Presidente are typically held up and will look to produce their effort late, suggesting the race could develop with a relatively modest early gallop. The key question is whether the prominent Sin City can dictate matters and repel any late challengers in what may turn into a tactical affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sin City KTB Selection56/100
Sin City showed fair ability when winning on debut over this trip but failed to build on it when fifth here last time. He drops in class now as a lightly raced 3yo with just two runs on the board. The Kevin Philippart de Foy yard has a 15% strike rate at Kempton from 254 runs while Rowan Scott takes the mount, though the jockey's own 4% strike rate at the track from 25 rides is modest. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and the trip looks suitable, yet the going suitability remains unknown after one run on standard to slow. Overall this remains a lightly raced profile that can still progress.
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2Thornthwaite52/100
Thornthwaite is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and connections. The Hugo Palmer yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Kempton from a large sample of 477 runs and teams up with David Probert, who himself holds an 11% strike rate at the track from 2187 rides. By Havana Grey, who has a 13% overall win rate, the colt represents a stable that can ready one first time. Stall 11 on the outer is far from ideal for a first-timer on this track, which adds a layer of difficulty to his introduction.
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3Nascondino51/100
Nascondino showed little on his sole start so far and is hard to assess with just one run on the board. He steps up in class now for Daniel and Claire Kubler, whose yard has a 16% strike rate at Kempton from 138 runs, and Alec Voikhansky is aboard with a 10% strike rate at the venue from 99 rides. Both trip and ground remain unknowns given the tiny sample, with no experience of standard to slow conditions. The 3yo therefore carries plenty of question marks but hails from a yard that operates at a solid level on the all-weather here.
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4Virtue King50/100
Virtue King showed little on his sole start here over this trip when finishing 11th. The Amanda Perrett yard has a 12% strike rate at Kempton from a large sample of 753 runs and pairs with Sean Levey. With no experience of standard to slow going he is unproven on the surface, and his very light career record leaves everything else unknown. The 3yo therefore brings limited encouragement on what he has shown to date, though the trainer's respectable local record offers a crumb of comfort.
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5Kinetic Impact49/100
Kinetic Impact is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form without winning in four starts, with figures of 4353. He has already tried this 1m trip once without success and the small sample makes going suitability impossible to judge as he has no runs on standard to slow. Charles Hills has an 11% strike rate from 587 runs at Kempton while Callum Shepherd partners him. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that run-style, he will need to find extra if he is to break his maiden here.
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6El Presidente47/100
El Presidente showed fair pace when fourth on his only start so far, though the small sample makes any firm conclusions risky. The Gary and Josh Moore yard's 5% strike rate from 111 runs at Kempton points to modest expectations here and he is asked the same 1m trip again with no placed form at the distance.
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7Beaujon45/100
Beaujon is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 9% strike rate from 505 runs at Kempton. The Brian Meehan stable has a modest record here on the all-weather and the low data confidence means there is little else to go on beyond pedigree and sales background.
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8Screen Actor45/100
Screen Actor has shown very little in two starts at this trip so far. The Michael Attwater yard's modest 5% strike rate from 993 runs at Kempton underlines the lack of encouragement and with only two career runs on the board this remains a low-confidence profile that needs to improve markedly.
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9Heart Throb44/100
Heart Throb is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the form picture rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The Tony Carroll yard posts an 8% strike rate from 1920 runs at Kempton and William Carson takes the ride.
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10Opal Rose39/100
Opal Rose is a debutant with no recent racecourse experience. The Joe Tickle yard has a 0% strike rate from 16 runs at Kempton AW and data confidence is low so the assessment rests mainly on pedigree and sales background.
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11Garth Spirit32/100
Garth Spirit has shown only limited ability in three runs to date and steps up in trip having been beaten a long way on his one previous attempt at 1m. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition given his modest form figures of 946.
KTB verdict
Sin City is the KTB Selection. He showed fair ability when winning on debut over this trip and, while he failed to build on that when fifth here last time, he drops in class as a lightly raced 3yo from a yard with a solid 15% strike rate at Kempton. The trip looks suitable and his front-running style could be an asset in a race with a tentative pace shape. Main dangers are the newcomer Thornthwaite, who represents a yard with a good local record, and the consistent but winless Kinetic Impact, though both carry their own question marks.
KTB Selection Sin City
This is the narrative read of the 6:15 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Kempton (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and what is it?
Sin City with a KTB Fit Score of 56/100.
What is the run-style of the selection Sin City?
Front-runner — tends to make the running or race on the pace (limited evidence, confidence low).
How many runners have previous experience of the all-weather at Kempton?
Four runners have previous Kempton AW form: Sin City (fifth), Virtue King (11th), and the remainder have no course form on record.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Garth Spirit.
What is the trainer strike rate at Kempton for the yard of the second-highest rated horse Thornthwaite?
15% strike rate at Kempton (AW) from 477 runs.
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