7:45 Kempton (AW)
A Class 5 handicap over 1m3f219y at Kempton on standard to slow ground features a field of seven modest performers. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 52 and 45, indicating little to choose between them on paper, though the selection carries the highest figure. Most of the runners are held-up types, which aligns with the pace shape that points to one horse being allowed an uncontested lead.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one horse should get an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the closers to overcome late on. Sahm Naif is the only front-runner in the field and is likely to take that role from draw four, while the other six are all held-up types who produce their efforts late. This sets up a race where the key question is whether any of the closers can bridge the gap to a horse given an easy time up front on this surface and trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Star Time KTB Selection52/100
Star Time is a modest performer who has shown bits of form on this track, finishing third here on his penultimate start. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance in the past, though his two runs on standard to slow ground have produced no placings. Alan King operates at a 9% strike rate from 460 runs at Kempton while David Probert has a solid 14% record from 217 rides here. From draw six he is likely to be held up and produce his effort late, in keeping with his usual run-style. His recent form reads 2-5836 and he carries an official rating of 66.
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2Gallant Lion51/100
Gallant Lion is a modest performer who has won three times at this trip and is competitive on standard to slow ground. He has been placed once from three runs at Kempton but has not won here, while his recent form has been patchy. Ian Williams has a 10% strike rate from 628 runs at the track and Ryan Kavanagh is aboard with a 10% strike rate from 51 rides at Kempton. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw one, he has placed twice from five runs on standard to slow going. His recent form figures read -01484 and he is rated 68.
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3Mountbatten49/100
Mountbatten is a modest performer who has shown a mixed bag this year with a win and two placings from his last six starts. He drops back in trip to a distance he has won at before though his sole Kempton run was poor. Sir Mark Prescott has an 11% strike-rate here from 666 runs while Jack Gilligan has a 7% strike rate from 28 rides at the track. From draw three he is another who is usually held up and produces his effort late. His sole run on standard to slow ground brought no win or place, he is rated 69, and his recent form reads 7-1426.
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4Meet Me In Meraki48/100
Meet Me In Meraki is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 325211 that includes two wins. He has run four times at Kempton without placing and is 0-6 on standard to slow going so far. David Evans has a 9% strike rate from 1097 runs at the track while Billy Loughnane has a 16% strike rate from 458 rides here. Usually held up from draw eight, he steps up in trip today having already won once at this distance from eight attempts. He carries an official rating of 66.
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5Harlington48/100
Harlington is a modest performer who has won twice this year but has looked below best on his last three starts. He steps up in trip today having won twice over this distance in the past, though he has only run once here at Kempton and finished seventh. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from nine runs at the track.
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6Sahm Naif47/100
Sahm Naif is a modest performer who has been a bit disappointing on his last three starts after two earlier wins. He has shown little at Kempton in two runs here and has failed to place in both attempts on standard to slow ground. The step up to this trip asks a fresh question and the yard's modest 10% strike rate at the track offers no encouragement. He is the sole front-runner and will likely set the pace.
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7Tales Old As Time45/100
Tales Old As Time is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on this track, finishing third here on his most recent start. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him, while the yard's modest 4% strike rate at Kempton adds a negative. Course form reads placed once from three runs.
KTB verdict
Star Time is the KTB Selection. A modest performer, he has shown bits of form on this track with a third on his penultimate start and steps up in trip to a distance over which he has won before. Most of his rivals are also held-up types, so the uncontested lead likely to be enjoyed by Sahm Naif poses the main threat to all the closers. Gallant Lion, Mountbatten and Meet Me In Meraki are the other principals in a race where the pace shape could be decisive.
KTB Selection Star Time
This is the narrative read of the 7:45 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Kempton (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to get the uncontested lead?
Sahm Naif is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence.
How many of the runners are held-up types?
Six of the seven runners are held up and usually produce their effort late.
Which horse has won over the trip before and is the selection?
Star Time has already won over this distance in the past and is the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 52.
What is the trainer strike rate at Kempton for the handler of the top-rated horse on Fit?
Alan King has a 9% strike rate at Kempton from 460 runs.
Which horse is stepping up in class as well as in trip?
Both Sahm Naif and Tales Old As Time are stepping up in class.
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