7:15 Kempton (AW)
This Class 5 handicap over a mile at Kempton forms the second division of the London Mile Series qualifier on standard to slow ground. A field of ten runners lines up, with the KTB Fit scores highlighting a fairly tight bunch at the top where modest performers predominate. The overall numbers point to a race that could be shaped by an uncontested lead, placing emphasis on those with proven course form and adaptability to the surface.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is defined by a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that may prove difficult for closers to bridge. Most of the field, including the top five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, meaning they will need to time their runs accurately off what looks a steady gallop. The key question is whether any of the closers possess the necessary finishing kick on this surface to reel in the front-runner, or if the leader can dictate matters throughout.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Asteverdi KTB Selection65/100
Asteverdi arrives as the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 65. A fair performer, he has been placed on his only previous visit to Kempton and has won twice at this trip from twelve attempts. The James Owen yard holds a solid 17% strike-rate at the track from 119 runs, while the 5yo is drawn in stall 1 which could prove advantageous. He has never raced on standard to slow going so that remains an unknown, though his recent form of -37383 shows consistent placed efforts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time of it. Oliver Hoodless takes the ride with a neutral score at the venue.
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2Berry Clever59/100
Berry Clever is rated a modest performer with a KTB Fit score of 59. He has won three times at this track from ten runs and also possesses a solid record on standard to slow going with three wins from nine starts. Successful at this trip, though his overall strike rate is modest and his recent form has been largely ordinary apart from a win last time out, as reflected in figures of 444441. The Chris Dwyer stable operates at an 11% strike rate at Kempton from 246 runs, with Harry Davies in the saddle who is 8 from 69 at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right given the likely uncontested lead. His course wins give him a strong local profile.
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3Longlai57/100
Longlai carries a KTB Fit score of 57 and is another modest performer with a solid record at this track, winning twice from eight runs, and he has also won at this trip. He has shown little spark in three starts this year, with recent form of 70-480 underlining a lack of recent progress, and first-time headgear is now reached for. The George Baker yard has an 11% strike rate at Kempton from 671 runs while Benoit de la Sayette is aboard with a 13% strike rate and A/E of 1.06 from 200 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be coming from the rear in what is likely to be a steadily run affair. Two wins from seven on standard to slow ground add to his suitability.
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4Cancan In The Rain57/100
Cancan In The Rain has a KTB Fit score of 57 and is a modest performer who has been largely consistent without winning often. He has won at this trip from 14 attempts and showed some spark when third at a lower level last month, though the recent form figures of 448306 show plenty of placed efforts without a win. This is his first time at Kempton on standard to slow ground which adds an unknown element, while the trainer has no previous runners here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find a way past the likely lone leader. Darragh Keenan rides for the Gihan Arnolda yard which has a 17% strike rate from its small sample.
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5Gunfighter57/100
Gunfighter also scores 57 on the KTB Fit scale and is a modest performer who has won once from three starts at Kempton and is proven at this trip. His recent form of 791751 shows he can pop up in this grade, but he has failed to place in two runs on standard to slow ground. The John Butler yard operates at a 10% strike rate here from 848 runs while Billy Loughnane has a 16% strike rate from 458 rides at the venue. Usually held up though with medium confidence in that assessment, he will be among those trying to close late off what should be an even pace. His course win provides a positive local angle.
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6It'sneverjustone51/100
It'sneverjustone is a modest performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts shown in figures of 446005. He has won over today's trip yet remains unproven on standard to slow going and makes his first start at Kempton, with first-time headgear now applied.
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7Freda49/100
Freda is a modest performer who has won once at this track and once at today's trip. Recent form has been patchy with a best of fifth on her last two starts from figures of 361545 and she now has to overcome a wide draw in stall nine, for a trainer with a modest 7% strike-rate at Kempton from a large sample.
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8Port Erin48/100
Port Erin is a modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of nine starts at Kempton. He has also won three times on standard to slow ground and seven times at this trip from 23 attempts, so the conditions look suitable enough, though the trainer's modest 8% strike rate from a huge sample at the track is a negative.
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9The Hare Rail47/100
The Hare Rail is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes a win last time out from figures of 472931. He has placed twice from three runs at Kempton without winning and is competitive on standard to slow going, while dropping back to a trip where he has already scored once from nine attempts.
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10King of Charm37/100
King of Charm is a modest performer who has run 22 times in the last year and looks exposed at this level. He has won twice at today's trip but showed little on his only previous visit to Kempton and has been beaten on his sole start on standard to slow ground.
KTB verdict
Asteverdi stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer with placed form at the track, a good draw in stall one and the benefit of a yard that performs solidly at Kempton, he can capitalise on what looks a favourable pace setup despite the unknown of the surface. His held-up style should see him delivered late against a lone leader who may get an easy time upfront. The main dangers are Berry Clever, who boasts multiple course wins and a good record on the going, and Longlai, who has a strong local profile and first-time headgear to assist him, while Gunfighter and Cancan In The Rain cannot be ruled out if the race develops favourably.
KTB Selection Asteverdi
This is the narrative read of the 7:15 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Kempton (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How does the lone leader pace shape affect the principals?
With most of the top five being held-up types who produce their effort late, the uncontested lead could make it hard for them to peg back the front-runner unless they possess a strong finishing kick.
What is Asteverdi's course record at Kempton?
Asteverdi has ran once here, finishing third, so he is placed but yet to win at the track.
Which horse has the strongest course record among the principals?
Berry Clever has won here three times from ten runs, the best course record among the top five.
How many of the field are first-time headgear wearers?
Longlai and It'sneverjustone are both wearing first-time headgear.
What is the trainer strike rate at Kempton for the yard of the selection?
James Owen has a 17% strike rate at Kempton (AW) from 119 runs.
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