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Trainer profile

Edward Smyth-Osbourne

184 runners in the last 5 seasons · 29 individual horses
As at 25 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 4 days ago 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2024→)
from 1 Jan 2022
18–184
Wins / Runs
9.8%
Strike rate
n=184
45 (25%)
Placed
1.21
Fair A/E
n=184 · 1.02 incl. margin
+4.18
£1 level stake
n=184 at SP · +2.3%
£230k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 10% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.21).

Deterministic profile computed from 184 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 25 Oct 2026
The read

The yard also reads well in Class 4 (16.7%, n=42) and over 6f – 7f (13%, n=115). The record reads poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 2.5% over 40 runners, 7.3pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.4%−6.4
n=29 · A/E 0.61 · £1 +5.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−9.8
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Debutants · first career start
10%+0.2
n=20 · A/E 2.55 · £1 +19.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
8.3%−1.5
n=12 · A/E 0.97 · £1 +0.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−9.8
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
20%
n=10 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −3.25
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.2%−5.6
n=24 · A/E 0.35 · £1 −20.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−9.8
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m – 1m1f 2.5% vs 9.8% · n=40
In Class 4 16.7% vs 9.8% · n=42
Over 6f – 7f 13% vs 9.8% · n=115
With Alistair Rawlinson 5.7% vs 9.8% · n=35
With Rob Hornby 6.3% vs 9.8% · n=32
On Good going 6.5% vs 9.8% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 92 9 9.8% −14.92
Good to Firm 42 4 9.5% +12.25
Good 31 2 6.5% +2.50
Good to Soft 11 2 18.2% −2.65
Soft 6 1 16.7% +9.00
Heavy 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Southwell (AW) 26 2 7.7% −7.00
Kempton (AW) 25 1 4% −15.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 23 5 21.7% +19.08
Windsor 16 1 6.3% −1.00
Chelmsford City (AW) 12 1 8.3% −6.00
Newbury 10 1 10% −5.40
Leicester 9 1 11.1% −5.50
Salisbury 7 1 14.3% −3.25
Doncaster 6 1 16.7% −1.50
Ffos Las 6 0 0% −6.00
Nottingham 5 0 0% −5.00
Lingfield (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00
Bath 4 0 0% −4.00
Epsom 4 1 25% −0.25
Ascot 4 1 25% +30.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 69 5 7.2% −18.92
Class 6 47 4 8.5% −24.50
Class 4 42 7 16.7% +40.00
Class 2 12 1 8.3% −7.40
Class 3 9 1 11.1% +20.00
Class 1 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 12 3 25% 0.98 −1.50
2nd–3rd fav 33 7 21.2% 1.33 +1.68
4th–6th fav 66 6 9.1% 1.33 +24.00
7th+ in betting 73 2 2.7% 0.96 −20.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Noodle Mission (USA)from Michael Bell 19 4 8 23 Jun 26
Eyes Front (IRE) 17 1 4 21 Oct 26
Sarafina Mshairi (GB) 17 2 6 13 Oct 26
Barry The Worm (GB) 15 2 2 15 Oct 26
Up The Pace (IRE) 11 3 6 14 Sep 25
Tavana (GB) 10 2 3 6 Aug 26
Medyg (GB) 8 0 1 12 Sep 26
Allaboutthelunch (GB) 7 0 1 28 Sep 26
Newsreader (IRE)from Kevin Philippart De Foy · then Tony Carroll 7 0 2 2 Jul 26
Florizelle (IRE) 6 0 0 13 Oct 26
Tales Old As Time (GB) 6 0 1 9 Oct 26
Miss Nightcap (GB) 6 2 4 24 Sep 26
All 29 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 29 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive; 20 had their first archived run for this yard.

5 have since run for another yard, most often for Tony Carroll (2); 24 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0172001213177104100
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderGeorgia Dobie
26% of all rides
10.4% SR · A/E 2.36
RiderRWSR£1
Georgia Dobie 48 5 10.4% +18.60
Alistair Rawlinson 35 2 5.7% −28.00
Rob Hornby 32 2 6.3% −9.25
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2024→
18
Archived wins
£230k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 9 wins
Noodle Mission (USA) — tote.co.uk It's A 3 Horse Race Racing League Race 37 Handicap (Trainers Registered To Racing League) Southwell (AW) · Aug 2024 · Class 4
£18,039
Tavana (GB) — Dubai Duty Free Full Of Surprises British EBF Fillies' Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) (Str) Newbury · Sep 2025 · Class 2
£15,462
Noodle Mission (USA) — Sky Bet Build A Bet Handicap Newmarket · May 2024 · Class 4
£12,885
Notable horses
Noodle Mission (USA) Up The Pace (IRE) Sarafina Mshairi (GB) Barry The Worm (GB) Tavana (GB) Miss Nightcap (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Noble Mission (GB) 21.1% · 4–19
Progeny have won 10.4% of 788 runs since 2008 (53 horses). Strongest on Good going: 14.4% from 167.
Cable Bay (IRE) 11.8% · 2–17
Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,714 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.9% from 642. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 290.
Soldier's Call (GB) 5.9% · 1–17
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,110 runs since 2008 (217 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.1% from 198. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.1% from 245.
Lope Y Fernandez (IRE) 13.3% · 2–15
Progeny have won 10.7% of 699 runs since 2008 (103 horses). Weakest on Good going: 6.6% from 167. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 14.7% from 129.
Sands Of Mali (FR) 27.3% · 3–11
Progeny have won 11.5% of 790 runs since 2008 (87 horses). Weakest on Good going: 8.3% from 204.
Havana Grey (GB) 20% · 2–10
Progeny have won 13.3% of 4,548 runs since 2008 (417 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 16.3% from 104. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10.2% from 411.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 25 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 184 · newest first

The latest 50 of 184 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 March 2024 to 21 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Eyes Front (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 7th 9/1
15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Public Enemy (IRE)J: Alistair Rawlinson Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 7 ran 6th 16/1
15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Barry The Worm (GB)J: Alistair Rawlinson Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 9/1
13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Florizelle (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 22/1
13 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sarafina Mshairi (GB)J: Ashley Lewis Cavani Champion Style Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 14/1
09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Tales Old As Time (GB)J: Alistair Rawlinson Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard / Slow · 7 ran 5th 17/2
06 Oct 26 Leicester Eyes Front (IRE)J: Harry Vigors Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 10th 6/1
01 Oct 26 Nottingham Public Enemy (IRE)J: Alistair Rawlinson Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Good · 14 ran 9th 40/1
28 Sep 26 Brighton Allaboutthelunch (GB)J: Isobelle Chalmers Follow Matchbook On X Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 10th 15/2
24 Sep 26 Newmarket Miss Nightcap (GB)J: Rob Hornby British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 2 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 8th 16/1
23 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Eyes Front (IRE)J: Ashley Lewis Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 3rd 11/2
21 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Barry The Worm (GB)J: Alistair Rawlinson Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 5/2F
17 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Sarafina Mshairi (GB)J: Rob Hornby Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 16/1
16 Sep 26 Sandown Florizelle (IRE)J: Rob Hornby Trainor Stone & Tile Mosaic Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Good · 11 ran 7th 125/1
14 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Barry The Worm (GB)J: Jack Dace Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 6th 11/2
13 Sep 26 Bath Allaboutthelunch (GB)J: Isobelle Chalmers Loud Hire Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good · 11 ran 2nd 25/1
12 Sep 26 Bath Medyg (GB)J: Georgia Dobie Alec Smith Is Getting Married Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 8f · Good · 11 ran 10th 12/1
10 Sep 26 Epsom Eshowe (GB)J: Georgia Dobie Under Starters Orders For Fit Show 2027 Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 7th 50/1
08 Sep 26 Leicester Eyes Front (IRE)J: Alistair Rawlinson Quality Freight Services Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 4th 7/1
01 Sep 26 Lingfield (AW) Sarafina Mshairi (GB)J: Rob Hornby Racing Partnership Celebrating 10 Years Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Edward Smyth-Osbourne's strike rate?
Edward Smyth-Osbourne has won 18 of 184 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.8% (as at 25 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Edward Smyth-Osbourne in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Edward Smyth-Osbourne's Fair A/E?
1.21, from 184 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 25 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).