Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.45).
Deterministic profile computed from 112 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026
The read
The record is strongest at Chantilly (FR) (11.8%, n=34), clear of the yard's 7.1% baseline. The yard also reads well over 1m2f – 1m4f (15.6%, n=32). The market has also underrated the yard on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 1.76 across 52 runners (9.6% strike, +1.60 to a £1 stake). The stable star of the record: Felix Felicis (FR) — 5 wins from 12 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5%−2.1
n=40 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −2.10
New recruits · first run for the yard
7.1%+0.0
n=14 · A/E 2.19 · £1 +13.90
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.1
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.1
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
33.3%+26.2
n=3 · A/E 2.80 · £1 +1.10
When favourite
50%
n=4 · A/E 2.79 · £1 +4.30
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−7.1
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f15.6% vs 7.1% · n=32
At Chantilly (FR)11.8% vs 7.1% · n=34
With a new jockey booking3.5% vs 7.1% · n=57
Over 1m – 1m1f4.2% vs 7.1% · n=48
On Standard (AW) going9.6% vs 7.1% · n=52
In Flat races9% vs 7.1% · n=89 · A/E 1.55
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat8989%−9.60
Hurdle1800%−14.00
Chase500%−5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)5259.6%+1.60
Heavy1815.6%−5.30
Soft1815.6%−8.00
Good to Soft1616.3%−9.90
Good600%−6.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly (FR)34411.8%+11.20
Deauville (FR)29310.3%−7.50
Saint-Cloud (FR)1119.1%+1.70
Enghien (FR)700%−7.00
Auteuil (FR)600%−6.00
Compiegne400%−4.00
Longchamp (FR)400%−4.00
Rochefort-Sur-Loire200%—
Le Mans (FR)200%−2.00
Clairefontaine200%−2.00
Angers (FR)200%−2.00
Jarnac100%—
Saint-Malo100%−1.00
Saint-Brieuc100%—
Chateaubriant100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite4250%2.79+4.30
2nd–3rd fav7228.6%2.14+3.60
4th–6th fav2727.4%1.04−8.10
7th+ in betting6922.9%1.03−28.40
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f4824.2%−33.90
1m2f – 1m4f32515.6%+29.10
2m1f – 2m4f1900%−15.00
1m5f – 2m9111.1%−4.80
6f – 7f300%−3.00
2m5f – 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2010100%−1.00
2011200%−2.00
2012800%−7.00
2013700%−4.00
2014200%−2.00
20156116.7%+21.90
2016300%−3.00
2017600%−6.00
2018400%−4.00
2019800%−8.00
202011218.2%+2.10
20211400%−14.00
2022200%−2.00
2023600%−5.00
20244125%+0.20
202512325%+14.70
20261616.3%−9.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps80810%−0.60
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners5359.4%+9.10
11-13 runners2926.9%−20.70
17+ runners1715.9%−8.00
2-4 runners800%−4.00
8-10 runners500%−5.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 32 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 32 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Edouard Monfort (2) and S Jousselin (2); 18 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard; 29 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
91180018001301317
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Felix Felicis (FR) — Prix de Rugles (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack) Deauville (FR) · Jan 2025
£9,091
Felix Felicis (FR) — Prix du Chene de la Ferme de Socquentot (Handicap) (All Weather) (Polytrack) Deauville (FR) · Feb 2026
£8,783
Felix Felicis (FR) — Prix du Plateau de Saclay (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack) Chantilly (FR) · Nov 2024
Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,067 runs since 2011 (112 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.8% from 277. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.4% from 145.
Progeny have won 16.8% of 2,009 runs since 2010 (167 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 20.1% from 497. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.7% from 339.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 117 · newest first
The latest 50 of 117 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 November 2005 to 28 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is C Restout's strike rate?
C Restout has won 8 of 112 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.1% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does C Restout do best at?
Chantilly (FR) by strike rate: 4 wins from 34 runners (11.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is C Restout in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is C Restout's Fair A/E?
1.45, from 104 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
C Restout·SR 7.1%·A/E 1.45
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