Francois Monfort
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 190 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.00).
New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 4% (n=101, Fair A/E 0.52). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 5.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.79 and −141.70 to a £1 stake over 282 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. M Guyon rides 21% of the entries and edges the yard's average (12.3% vs 8.5%, A/E 0.96). The yard also reads well on Heavy going (13.6%, n=66). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 4.1% over 145 runners, 4.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 61-180-day break: Fair A/E 0.59 across 210 runners (4.3% strike, −135.30 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 6 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Sumbe Grand Handicap at Deauville (FR) (Aug 2026, £36,000). The stable star of the record: Homo Deus (FR) — 6 wins from 17 runs for the yard.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasonsJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2021→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,133 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,133 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 January 2021 to 21 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Francois Monfort's strike rate?
- Francois Monfort has won 79 of 933 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.5% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Francois Monfort do best at?
- Saint-Cloud (FR) by strike rate: 17 wins from 146 runners (11.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for Francois Monfort?
- M Guyon, with 195 runners since 2022 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 24 (12.3%).
- Is Francois Monfort in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 13 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Francois Monfort's Fair A/E?
- 1.00, from 931 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.