Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 16.1%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
22.2%+10.8
n=9 · A/E 3.91 · £1 +19.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−11.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−11.4
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−11.4
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−11.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
25%
n=4 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −1.62
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
16.1%+4.7
n=31 · A/E 2.05 · £1 +35.88
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up16.1% vs 11.4% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat43511.6%+23.88
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good1715.9%+12.00
Standard (AW)16318.8%−1.12
Soft400%−4.00
Good to Firm3133.3%+20.00
Good to Soft300%−3.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW)16318.8%−1.12
Cork7114.3%+22.00
Curragh500%−5.00
Fairyhouse300%−3.00
Gowran Park300%−3.00
Limerick3133.3%+20.00
Roscommon200%−2.00
Bellewstown100%−1.00
Leopardstown100%−1.00
Navan100%−1.00
Punchestown100%−1.00
Tipperary100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite4125%1.09−1.62
2nd–3rd fav5120%1.95+0.50
4th–6th fav1317.7%1.08−6.00
7th+ in betting2229.1%3.49+30.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f26415.4%+33.88
1m – 1m1f1218.3%−5.00
1m2f – 1m4f400%−4.00
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20227228.6%+27.50
20231500%−15.00
202415320%+17.38
2025300%−3.00
2026400%−4.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps34514.7%+32.88
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners19210.5%+9.50
11-13 runners1100%−11.00
17+ runners1119.1%+18.00
8-10 runners2150%+0.38
5-7 runners11100%+6.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 6 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 6 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 3 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 5 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
3325000400000330
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 12.8% of 760 runs since 2008 (60 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.9% from 327. Weakest on Good to Firm going: 9.3% from 140.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,275 runs since 2008 (310 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.1% from 963. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 864. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 723.
Progeny have won 12.5% of 10,070 runs since 2008 (907 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7% from 625.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 53 · newest first
The latest 50 of 53 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 August 2020 to 12 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Craig O'Neill's strike rate?
Craig O'Neill has won 5 of 44 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.4% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Craig O'Neill in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Craig O'Neill's Fair A/E?
1.70, from 44 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Craig O'Neill·SR 11.4%·A/E 1.70
KTB
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