Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.71). With a claiming rider up the record reads 10% (42 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 307 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 26 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 9.5%
The read
Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 9.5% (n=42, Fair A/E 1.90). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 3.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.79 and −32.55 to a £1 stake over 105 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.8%−0.1
n=105 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −32.55
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.9
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
Debutants · first career start
6%+2.1
n=50 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −10.20
First-time headgear · true-first definition
11.8%+7.9
n=17 · A/E 3.21 · £1 +13.90
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
9.1%+5.2
n=11 · A/E 1.81 · £1 −0.30
When favourite
40%
n=5 · A/E 1.79 · £1 +0.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
9.5%+5.6
n=42 · A/E 1.90 · £1 +3.10
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.9
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Thibault Speicher10.5% vs 3.9% · n=38
With claiming riders up9.5% vs 3.9% · n=42
With debutants6% vs 3.9% · n=50
At Vichy6.1% vs 3.9% · n=33
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat306123.9%−154.85
Hurdle100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft9455.3%−55.55
Standard (AW)7833.8%−2.60
Good5024%−28.10
Good to Soft4712.1%−38.70
Heavy3712.7%−29.90
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Saint-Cloud (FR)7833.8%−59.10
Chantilly (FR)4612.2%−27.30
Deauville (FR)4025%+15.70
Longchamp (FR)3525.7%−9.50
Vichy3326.1%−20.10
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)1715.9%−4.80
Lyon Parilly1500%−13.00
Moulins1200%−9.00
Lyon-La Soie (FR)600%−6.00
Toulouse500%−5.00
Aix-Les-Bains (FR)3133.3%−0.75
Marseille Pont-de-Vivaux (FR)300%−3.00
Clairefontaine (FR)300%−3.00
Vittel (FR)200%−2.00
Fontainebleau (FR)200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11400%−14.00
Class 41119.1%−6.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite6233.3%1.56−0.25
2nd–3rd fav35411.4%0.81−6.70
4th–6th fav7322.7%0.39−50.30
7th+ in betting18842.1%0.75−98.60
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f12853.9%−102.25
6f – 7f7645.3%−31.50
1m – 1m1f7334.1%+4.90
Under 6f1400%−13.00
1m5f – 2m1300%−11.00
2m1f – 2m4f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2010100%−1.00
20111915.3%+27.00
20122600%−24.00
20132129.5%+4.50
20141300%−13.00
20159111.1%+3.20
201622313.6%−3.50
20172100%−21.00
20182000%−20.00
20191200%−12.00
20201800%−16.00
2021600%−6.00
2022300%−3.00
2023800%−8.00
20242214.5%−3.30
20252613.8%−15.30
20266035%−44.45
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps17163.5%−66.40
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners8744.6%−48.90
11-13 runners8222.4%−49.10
17+ runners5024%+8.50
8-10 runners4936.1%−38.25
5-7 runners2900%−28.00
2-4 runners10110%−0.10
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 68 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 16 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mme A Budka (2); 44 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard, most often for G Blot (2); 57 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
6063601535005
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 16.8% of 2,009 runs since 2008 (167 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 20.1% from 497. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.7% from 339.
Progeny have won 9.1% of 1,244 runs since 2008 (143 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.6% from 197. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.8% from 125.
Agnes Kamikaze (JPN)8.3% · 2–24
Progeny have won 4% of 325 runs since 2008 (30 horses).
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,069 runs since 2008 (142 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 307 · newest first
The latest 50 of 307 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 December 2010 to 23 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is D Chenu's strike rate?
D Chenu has won 12 of 307 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.9% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does D Chenu do best at?
Vichy by strike rate: 2 wins from 33 runners (6.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is D Chenu in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is D Chenu's Fair A/E?
0.71, from 296 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
D Chenu·SR 3.9%·A/E 0.71
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